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An Improved Annual Chronology of U.S. Business Cycles since the 1790s

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 March 2006

JOSEPH H. DAVIS
JOSEPH H. DAVIS
Affiliation:
Investment Analyst, Investment Counseling and Research, The Vanguard Group, Valley Forge, PA 19482-2600. E-mail: joseph_davis@vanguard.com.
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Abstract

The NBER's pre–World War I dating of business cycles implies that the U.S. economy spent nearly every other year in recession. This article extends earlier efforts at redating for the 1796–1914 period using a single metric: Davis's (2004) annual industrial production index. The new chronology alters more than 40 percent of the peak and troughs and removes the most questionable cycles. An important implication of this is the lack of discernible differences in the frequency and duration of industrial cycles among the pre–Civil War, Civil War to World War I, and post–World War II periods.

Type
ARTICLES
Information
The Journal of Economic History , Volume 66 , Issue 1 , March 2006 , pp. 103 - 121
Copyright
© 2006 The Economic History Association

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