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The semi-annual oscillation and Antarctic climate. Part 2: recent changes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 May 2004

Michiel R. Van Den Broeke
Affiliation:
Norwegian Polar Institute, PO Box 5072 Majorstua, N-0301 Oslo, Norway IMAU (Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research), PO Box 80.005, 3508TA Utrecht, Netherlands, E-mail: broeke@fys.ruu.nl

Abstract

Following a weakening of the semi-annual oscillation (SAO) since the mid-1970s, the half-yearly pressure wave in the Southern Hemisphere has become less significant. As a result, May/June temperatures have decreased in East Antarctica, which has moderated Antarctic warming. Spectral analysis of 87 years of pressure data at Orcadas suggest that the recent weakening of the SAO is part of the natural variability of the Southern Hemisphere circulation on decadal timescales. We interpret the time series of composite Antarctic temperature in terms of the historical strengthening and weakening of the SAO. If the dominant oscillations that occurred in the past prove to be persistent, an accelerated East Antarctic warming trend is expected for the coming decades. There are indications that the strength of the SAO is linked to the Southern Oscillation, in the sense that warm phases of the Southern Oscillation coincide with strong westerlies, a weakly developed SAO and below-average temperatures in East Antarctica. Temperatures on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula show strongly deviant patterns, which can not be explained by the same mechanism that applies to East Antarctica.

Type
Papers—Atmospheric Sciences
Copyright
© Antarctic Science Ltd 1998

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