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NO REVERSAL OF FORTUNE IN THE LONG RUN: GEOGRAPHY AND SPATIAL PERSISTENCE OF PROSPERITY IN COLOMBIA, 1500-2005*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2015

Adolfo Meisel
Adolfo Meisel*
Affiliation:
Banco de la República
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Abstract

This paper examines the non-reversal of fortune thesis proposed by Acemoglu et al. (2002) in the light of the Colombian experience over the last 500 years. Using a total of fourteen national population censuses and the record of tributary Indians in 1559, it is found that the population density of Colombian regions presented a high degree of persistence through time. Thus, the evidence indicates that those places that were prosperous circa 1500 remain so today, and vice versa. These results indicate that the long-run influences of geography on regional economic disparities within a country are not negligible.

Resumen

Este trabajo examina la tesis de la no reversión de la fortuna propuesta por Acemoglu, Johnson y Robinson en el contexto de la experiencia de Colombia durante los últimos 500 años. Utilizando un total de 14 censos nacionales y un recuento de los indígenas que pagaban impuestos en 1559, se demuestra que la densidad de población de las regiones colombianas ha sido muy persistente a través del tiempo. Por lo tanto, los sitios que eran prósperos en 1500 tienden a ser los mismos en la actualidad y viceversa. Estos resultados sugieren que el papel de la geografía en las disparidades regionales al interior de un país no es despreciable.

Keywords

comparative economic historydemographic economicsLatin AmericaN16J10N36historia económica comparadademografía económicaAmérica Latina
Type
Articles/Artículos
Information
Revista de Historia Economica - Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History , Volume 32 , Issue 3 , December 2014 , pp. 411 - 428
Copyright
Copyright © Instituto Figuerola de Historia y Ciencias Sociales, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid 2014 

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Footnotes

*

Paper presented at the 9th BETA Workshop in Historical Economics, New Data, Methods, and Theories in Cliometrics, Strasbourg, 3-4 May 2013. The research assistance of Simon Chaves and Yuri Reina and comments by the members of CEER, Banco de la República, Cartagena, Colombia, Felipe Valencia Caicedo, Maria Teresa Ramirez, Haroldo Calvo, Enrique Lopez, and Juliana Jaramillo, are acknowledged. The opinions expressed in this paper do not reflect the point of view of the Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

a

Carrera 7 #14-78, Bogotá, Colombia. ameisero@banrep.gov.co

References

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