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Cuba's Perilous Political Transition to the Post-Castro Era

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 April 2015

Abstract

In the years since Raúl Castro took office as president following Fidel Castro's illness and retirement, Cuba has embarked on four major transitions almost simultaneously: a restructuring of elite decision-making; a transformation of Cuba's centrally-planned economy into a market socialist economy; a relaxation of tight social control, providing greater social autonomy for civil society and even a degree of political decompression; and, a transition from the founding generation of the political elite (los históricos) to a successor generation, when neither Castro will hold power. Each of these processes by itself entails political risk; unfolding together, they constitute the greatest political challenge the Cuban regime has faced since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Spanish abstract

En los años desde que Raúl Castro tomó el poder como presidente luego de la enfermedad y retiro de Fidel Castro, Cuba se ha embarcado en cuatro transiciones mayores casi de manera simultánea: una reestructuración de la toma de decisiones de las élites; una transformación de la economía centralizada cubana hacia una economía socialista de mercado; un relajamiento del fuerte control social, lo que ha proveído una mayor autonomía social a la sociedad civil e incluso un cierto grado de descompresión política; y, una transición de la generación de la élite política fundadora (los históricos) a una generación sucesora, en donde ningún Castro tendrá el poder. Cada uno de esos procesos contiene en sí mismo riesgos políticos. Desarrollándose juntos, tales procesos constituyen el reto político más grande que el régimen cubano ha enfrentado desde el colapso de la Unión Soviética.

Portuguese abstract

Nos anos que se seguiram à posse de Raúl Castro como presidente, após a enfermidade e a aposentadoria de Fidel Castro, Cuba deu início, quase que simultaneamente, a quatro importantes transições: a reestruturação do processo decisório das elites; a transformação de uma economia centralmente planejada para uma economia socialista de mercado; um relaxamento do rígido controle social, possibilitando uma autonomia maior da sociedade civil e até mesmo um relaxamento político; e uma transição da geração fundadora da elite política (los históricos) para uma geração sucessora, em um momento no qual nenhum dos irmãos Castro se manterá no poder. Cada um desses processos implica em riscos políticos. Ao desdobrarem-se conjuntamente, constituem o maior desafio político enfrentado pelo regime cubano desde o colapso da União Soviética.

Type
Commentary
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2015 

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References

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31 ‘Key address by Comrade Raúl Castro Ruz … at the closing session of the First Session of the Seventh Legislature of the National Assembly of People's Power’, Granma International, 24 Feb.  2008.

32 Ibid.

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37 Farber, ‘Visiting Raúl Castro's Cuba’.

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43 ‘We Have Adopted Important Decisions That Constitute in Themselves a Structural and Conceptual Change in the Interest of Preserving and Developing Our Social System and Making it Sustainable in the Future’, Granma International, 2 Aug. 2010.

44 Gerardo Arreola, ‘Reprocha Raúl Castro el burocratismo y el maquillaje de cifras en la agricultura cubana’, La Jornada (México, DF), 24 Dec. 2006; María Julia Mayoral, ‘Reclama Raúl más rigor y transparencia’, Granma, 23 Dec. 2006.

45 Raúl Castro, ‘The Revolution's Most Important Weapon: The People’, Granma International, 27 July 2007.

46 ‘Intervención del General de Ejército Raúl Castro Ruz …’, Juventude Rebelde, 28 Dec. 2007.

47 Ibid.

48 ‘Message from the Commander in Chief’, 18 Feb. 2008, Discursos e intervenciones del Comandante en Jefe Fidel Castro Ruz, available at www.cuba.cu/gobierno/discursos/.

49 James C. McKinley Jr., ‘Cuba's Revolution Lurches Forward Under Two Masters’, New York Times, 27 July 2007; ‘Reflections by Comrade Fidel: I Hope I Never Have a Reason to Be Ashamed’, Reflexiones del Comandante en Jefe, available at www.cuba.cu/gobierno/reflexiones/reflexiones.html.

50 Jeffrey Goldberg, ‘Fidel: “Cuban Model Doesn't Even Work For Us Anymore”’, The Atlantic, 8 Sept. 2010.

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52 ‘Central Report to the Sixth Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba’, Granma International, 16 April 2011.

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54 Marc Frank, ‘Cuba Makes More Reforms to Retail Sector’, Reuters, 26 Dec. 2011.

55 ‘National Conference Convocation’, Granma International, 21 April 2011.

56 Agence France Presse, ‘Gobierno pide a cubanos no esperar que “papá Estado” les resuelva todo’, 27 Sept. 2009. Author's translation.

57 ‘Central Report to the Sixth Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba’, Granma International, 16 April 2011.

58 ‘Socialism Signifies Social Justice and Equality, but Equality Is Not Egalitarianism’, Granma International, 15 July 2008.

59 Ibid.

60 ‘Central Report to the Sixth Congress’.

61 Newfarmer, Richard and Liu, Dana M., ‘Adapting to Globalization: Lessons from China’, in Brundenius, Claes and Weeks, John (eds.), Globalization and Third-World Socialism: Cuba and Vietnam (New York: Palgrave, 2001), pp. 4160CrossRefGoogle Scholar; John Weeks, ‘A Tale of Two Transitions: Cuba and Vietnam’, in Brundenius and Weeks (eds.), Globalization and Third-World Socialism,  pp. 18–40.

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70 ‘Marino Murillo, nuevo Ministro de Economía y Planificación’, Granma, 25 Sept. 2014; Daniel Trotta, ‘Cuban Cabinet Change Aims to Boost Flagging Economy’, Reuters, 26 Sept. 2014.

71 Hernández, Rafael, ‘The Collapse of Socialism Is Beyond the Present Horizon’, in Brenner, Philip, Jiménez, Marguerite Rose, Kirk, John M. and LeoGrande, William M. (eds.), A Contemporary Cuba Reader: The Revolution under Raúl (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2014), pp. 83–8Google Scholar. For a debate on the need for bureaucracy (i.e. institutional rather than personalistic governance) versus its dangers, see Rafael Hernández, Ovidio D'Angelo, Ivette Gálvez y Andry Matilla, ‘La burocracia como fenómeno social’, Último Jueves, espacio de debate de la Revista Temas, marzo de 2009, available at www.temas.cult.cu/debates/libro%204/029-049%20burocracia.pdf.

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73 ‘Our Greatest Satisfaction Is the Tranquility and Calm Confidence We Feel Handing over the Responsibility of Continuing to Build Socialism to New Generations’, Granma International, 26 Feb. 2013.

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76 Korbonski, ‘Leadership Succession and Political Change in Eastern Europe’.

77 ‘Fidel es insustituible, salvo que lo sustituyamos todos juntos’, Juventude Rebelde, 21 Dec. 2006. Author's translation.

78 Speech delivered by Army General Raúl Castro Ruz …, during the closing ceremony of the Sixth Session of the Seventh Legislature of the National People's Power Assembly, 18 Dec. 2010.

79 ‘Speech by Dr. Fidel Castro Ruz … [on] International Labor Day, May 1, 2000’, Discursos e intervenciones del Comandante en Jefe Fidel Castro Ruz, available at http:// www.cuba.cu/gobierno/discursos/.

80 See, for example, the description of the 2008 Congress of Artists and Writers in Frank, Cuban Revelations, pp. 111–12.

81 Exchanges in the email war are posted on http://www.desdecuba.com/polemica/index.shtml.

82 Arturo García Hernández, ‘La política cultural de Cuba, sin dogmas ni sectarismos’, La Jornada (México), 26 Feb. 2007. See Simpson, Adam, ‘Civil Society in the Digital Age: How the Internet Changes State-Society Relations in Authoritarian Regimes: The Case of Cuba’, in Civil Society Activism Under Authoritarian Rule: A Comparative Perspective, in Cavatorta, Francesco (ed.) (New York: Routledge, 2013), pp. 231–4Google Scholar.

83 Marc Lacey, ‘Cuban Government Vows to Release 52 Prisoners’, New York Times, 8 July 2010; Will Weissert, ‘Cuba Agrees to Free 52 Political Prisoners’, Associated Press, 8 July 2010.

84 Marc Frank, ‘Castro in First Church Overtures’, Financial Times, 24 May 2010.

85 ‘Central Report to the Sixth Congress’.

86 Raúl Castro, ‘Our Responsibility Is to Promote Greater Democracy in Our Society, Beginning by Providing an Example Within the Ranks of the Party’, Granma International, 30 Jan. 2012.

87 John Rice, ‘Cuba Joins Other Latin Nations in Shift Toward Open-source Software’, Associated Press, 17 Feb. 2007; Dalia Acosta, ‘High Tech: Cuba Turns to Venezuela to Solve Internet Woes’, Inter Press Service, 14 Feb. 2007.

88 Ted A. Henken, Sjamme van de Voort and Ellery Biddle, ‘From Cyberspace to Public Space? The Emergent Blogosphere and Cuban Civil Society’, in Brenner et al., A Contemporary Cuba Reader: The Revolution under Raúl, pp. 99–110.

89 John Rice, ‘Cuban Official Defends Internet Controls Associated Press Online’, Associated Press, 13 Feb. 2007.

90 Dalia Acosta, ‘Cuba: More Bloggers Are Firing off Thoughts from the Island IPS – Inter Press Service’, 6 Oct. 2008; David Adams, ‘Cuban Dissent Finds Voice on Internet,’ St. Petersburg Times (Florida), 7 Feb. 2008.

91 Henken, van de Voort and Biddle, ‘From Cyberspace to Public Space?’

92 ‘La prensa cubana silencia la “crítica al silencio” de Miguel Díaz-Canel’, 7 May 2013, La Chiringa de Cuba, available at www.chiringadecuba.com/la-prensa-cubana-silencia-la-critica-al-silencio-de-miguel-diaz-canel-vide/. Author's translation.

93 Quoted in Frank, Cuban Revelations, p. 251.

94 Setting the ground rules for legitimate debate, Fidel Castro famously declared in 1961, ‘Within the revolution, everything; against the revolution, nothing’. Over the years, however, what was considered ‘within’ the revolution has varied considerably, and not always predictably. Castro, Fidel, ‘Words to the Intellectuals’, in Fidel Castro Reader (Melbourne, Australia: Ocean Press, 2008), pp. 213–40Google Scholar.

95 Lin, Gang, ‘Leadership Transition, Intra-party Democracy, and Institution Building in China’, Asian Survey, 44: 2 (2004), pp. 255–75CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Bunce, Valerie and Roeder, Philip G., ‘The Effects of Leadership Succession in the Soviet Union’, American Political Science Review, 80: 1 (1986), pp.  215–24CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

96 Domínguez, Jorge, ‘Political Succession in Cuba’, Third World Quarterly, 10: 1, (1988), pp.  229–36CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

97 Partido Comunista de Cuba, Objectivos de Trabajo del Partido Comunista de Cuba Aprobados por la Primera Conferencia, 29 Jan. 2012.

98 ‘Central Report to the Sixth Congress’.

99 Speech delivered by Army General Raúl Castro Ruz … during the closing ceremony of the Sixth Session of the Seventh Legislature of the National People's Power Assembly, 18 Dec. 2010.

100 Dalia Acosta, ‘Raúl Castro Proposes Change from Within Socialist System’, Inter Press Service, 19 April 2011.

101 ‘Our Greatest Satisfaction Is the Tranquility and Calm Confidence We Feel Handing over the Responsibility of Continuing to Build Socialism to New Generations’, Granma International, 26 Feb. 2013.

102 Ibid.

103 Frank, Cuban Reveleations, 40.

104 Mesa-Lago and Pérez-López, Cuba Under Raúl Castro; Morris, Emily, ‘Unexpected Cuba’, New Left Review, 88 (2014), pp. 545Google Scholar; Alfonso, Haroldo Dilla, ‘La dirección y los límites de los cambios’, Nueva Sociedad, 216 (2008), pp. 3648Google Scholar.

105 Domínguez, Jorge I., ‘Comienza una transición hacia el autoritarismo en Cuba’, Encuentro 6/7 (1997), p. 9Google Scholar.

106 The concept of ‘islands of autonomy’ is from Bunce, Valerie, Subversive Institutions: The Design and Destruction of Socialism and the State (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. On how economic reforms in a centrally planned economy can lead to social pluralism, setting the stage for political change, see Stark, David, ‘Entrepreneurs on the Road to Post-Communism’, Contemporary Sociology, 18: 5 (1989), pp. 671–4CrossRefGoogle Scholar. An application to the Cuban case is Domínguez, Jorge I.,  ‘Comienza una transición hacia el autoritarismo en Cuba’, Encuentro 6–7, (1997), pp. 723Google Scholar.

107 Stokes, Gail, The Walls Came Tumbling Down: The Collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993)Google Scholar. For a discussion of the social pact in Cuba, see ‘Cuba: ¿hacia un nuevo pacto social?’, Espacio Laical suplemento digital, abril 2011, available at http://espaciolaical.org/contens/esp/sd_125.pdf.