Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-ph5wq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-27T18:37:04.029Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Democratic Pieces: Autocratic Elections and Democratic Development since 1815

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 December 2013

Abstract

This article overviews the history of autocratic elections since 1815 and then tests how a country's experience with autocratic elections influences both democratization and democratic survival. To comprehensively capture this history, the study employs original measures of Robert Dahl's electoral dimensions of contestation and participation. First, it shows that autocratic elections have been common for centuries, but that their character has changed dramatically over time. Whereas high contestation almost always preceded high participation prior to 1940, the opposite occurs in modern regimes. Secondly, it demonstrates that a country's history of contestation predicts both democratization and democratic survival, whereas participation is positive for survival but generally negative for democratization. Thus, democracies are more likely to survive if they experience autocratic elections prior to democratizing, which has implications for democracy promotion and future political development.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Department of Political Science, George Washington University (email: mkm2@email.gwu.edu). The author thanks Carles Boix, Grigore Pop-Eleches, Chris Achen, Christine Percheski, Sarah Bush, Michael K. McKoy, Beatriz Magaloni, participants at ISA 2010 and Princeton's Comparative Politics Graduate Research Seminar, Editor Hugh Ward and three anonymous referees for their helpful comments. The associated dataset and an appendix with additional statistical results are available online at http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1017/S0007123413000446.

References

Altman, David Pérez-Liñán, Aníbal. 2002. Assessing the Quality of Democracy: Freedom, Competitiveness and Participation in Eighteen Latin American Countries. Democratization 9 (2):85100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Banks, Arthur S. 1976. Cross-National Time Series, 1815–1973. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathanie l, Katz, Jonathan N. Tucker, Richard. 1998. Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable. American Journal of Political Science 42 (4):12601288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berman, Sheri. 2007. Lessons from Europe. Journal of Democracy 18 (1):2841.Google Scholar
Blaydes, Lisa. 2011. Elections and Distributive Politics in Mubarak's Egypt. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Bogaards, Matthijs. 2010. Measures of Democratization: From Degree to Type to War. Political Research Quarterly 63 (2):475488.Google Scholar
Boix, Carles. 2003. Democracy and Redistribution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boix, Carles, Miller, Michael K. Rosato, Sebastian. 2013. A Complete Data Set of Political Regimes, 1800–2007. Comparative Political Studies 46 (12):15231554.Google Scholar
Bollen, Kenneth A. 1998. Cross-National Indicators of Liberal Democracy, 1950–1990. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina.Google Scholar
Bratton, Michael van de Walle, Nicolas. 1997. Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brownlee, Jason. 2009. Portents of Pluralism: How Hybrid Regimes Affect Democratic Transitions. American Journal of Political Science 53 (3):515532.Google Scholar
Carothers, Thomas. 1999. Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Google Scholar
Carothers, Thomas. 2007. The ‘Sequencing’ Fallacy. Journal of Democracy 18 (1):2841.Google Scholar
Cheibub, José Antonio, Gandhi, Jennifer Vreeland, James Raymond. 2010. Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited. Public Choice 143:67101.Google Scholar
Cingranelli, David L., Richards., David L. 2008. The Cingranelli-Richards (CIRI) Human Rights Data Project Coding Manual Version 2008.3.13. Available from ciri.binghamton.edu/documentation/ciri_coding_guide.pdf, accessed October 2012.Google Scholar
Collier, Ruth Berins. 1999. Paths Toward Democracy: The Working Class and Elites in Western Europe and South America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Coppedge, Michael, Alvarez, Angel Maldonado, Claudia. 2008. Two Persistent Dimensions of Democracy: Contestation and Inclusiveness. Journal of Politics 70 (3):632647.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coppedge, Michael, Gerring, John, Altman, David, Bernhard, Michael, Fish, Steven, Hicken, Allen, Kroenig, Matthew, Lindberg, Staffan I., McMann, Kelly, Paxton, Pamela, Semetko, Holli A., Skaaning, Svend-Erik, Staton, Jeffrey Teorell, Jan. 2011. Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy: A New Approach. Perspectives on Politics 9 (2):247267.Google Scholar
Correlates of War Project. 2010. National Material Capabilities Dataset, Version 4.0. Available from http://www.correlatesofwar.org, accessed October 2012.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary W. 2009. Authoritarian Elections and Leadership Succession, 1975–2004, working paper, Stanford University.Google Scholar
Dahl, Robert A. 1971. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Dahl, Robert A. 1973. Introduction. In Regimes and Oppositions, edited by Robert A. Dahl. 125. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Diamond, Larry, Linz, Juan J. Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1990. Politics in Developing Countries: Comparing Experiences with Democracy. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Dix, Robert H. 1994. History and Democracy Revisited. Comparative Politics 27 (1):91105.Google Scholar
Epstein, David L., Bates, Robert, Goldstone, Jack, Kristensen, Ida O'Halloran, Sharyn. 2006. Democratic Transitions. American Journal of Political Science 50 (3):551569.Google Scholar
Foltz, William J. 1973. Political Opposition in Single-Party States of Tropical Africa. In Regimes and Oppositions, edited by Robert A. Dahl. 143170. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Freedom, House. 2010. Freedom in the World 2010: The Annual Survey of Political Rights and Civil Liberties. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.Google Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer. 2008. Political Institutions Under Dictatorship. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gates, Scott, Hegre, Håvard, Jones, Mark P. Strand, Håvard. 2006. Institutional Inconsistency and Political Instability: Polity Duration, 1800–2000. American Journal of Political Science 50 (4):893908.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, Barbara. 1999. What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years? Annual Review of Political Science 2:115144.Google Scholar
Geddes, Barbara. 2006. Why Parties and Elections in Authoritarian Regimes? Working paper, University of California, Los Angeles.Google Scholar
Gerring, John, Thacker, Strom C. Alfaro, Rodrigo. 2012. Democracy and Human Development. Journal of Politics 74 (1):117.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristen S. 2002. Expanded Trade and GDP Data. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46:712724.Google Scholar
Goemans, H.E., Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede Chiozza, Giacomo. 2009. Archigos: A Data Set on Leaders, 18752004, Version 2.9.Google Scholar
Golder, Matt. 2005. Democratic Electoral Systems Around the World, 1946–2000. Electoral Studies 24:103121.Google Scholar
Greene, Kenneth F. 2002. Opposition Party Strategy and Spatial Competition in Dominant Party regimes: A Theory and the Case of Mexico. Comparative Political Studies 35 (7):755783.Google Scholar
Guizot, François. 1851/2002. The History of the Origins of Representative Government in Europe, translated by Andrew R. Scoble. Indianapolis: Liberty Fund.Google Scholar
Haber, Stephen Menaldo, Victor. 2011. Do Natural Resources Fuel Authoritarianism? A Reappraisal of the Resource Curse. American Political Science Review 105 (1):126.Google Scholar
Hermet, Guy. 1978. State-Controlled Elections: A Framework. In Elections Without Choice, edited by Guy Hermet, Richard Rose, and Alain Rouquié. 118. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Houle, Christian. 2009. Inequality and Democracy: Why Inequality Harms Consolidation but Does not Affect Democratization. World Politics 61 (4):589622.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.Google Scholar
Karl, Terry Lynn. 1990. Dilemmas of Democratization in Latin America. Comparative Politics 23 (1):121.Google Scholar
Keane, John. 2009. The Life and Death of Democracy. London: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar
Levitsky, Steven Way, Lucan A.. 2010. Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes After the Cold War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Lindberg, Staffan I. 2006. Democracy and Elections in Africa. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Lindberg, Staffan I. ed. 2009a Democratization by Elections: A New Mode of Transition. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Lindberg, Staffan I. 2009b. The Power of Elections in Africa Revisited. In Democratization by Elections: A New Mode of Transition, edited by Staffan I. Lindberg. 2546. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Llavador, Humberto Oxoby, Robert J.. 2005. Partisan Competition, Growth, and the Franchise. Quarterly Journal of Economics 120 (3):11551189.Google Scholar
Lust-Okar, Ellen. 2006. Elections Under Authoritarianism: Preliminary Lessons from Jordan. Democratization 13 (3):456471.Google Scholar
Maddison, Angus. 2008. Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1–2006 AD. Available from http://www.ggdc.net/maddison, accessed October 2012.Google Scholar
Magaloni, Beatriz. 2006. Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Magaloni, Beatriz. 2008. Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule. Comparative Political Studies 41 (4/5):715741.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Edward Snyder, Jack. 2005. Electing to Fight: Why Emerging Democracies Go to War. Cambridge: MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marshall, Monty G Jaggers, Keith. 2010. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2009. Center for Systemic Peace, George Mason University.Google Scholar
Mattes, Robert Bratton, Michael. 2007. Learning About Democracy in Africa: Awareness, Performance, and Experience. American Journal of Political Science 51 (1):192217.Google Scholar
Munck, Gerardo L. Verkuilen, Jay. 2002. Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy: Evaluating Alternative Indices. Comparative Political Studies 35:534.Google Scholar
Norris, Pippa. 2008. Democracy Time-Series Dataset. Available from http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/pnorris/Data/Data.htm, accessed October 2012.Google Scholar
O'Donnell, Guillermo Schmitter, Philippe C.. 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions About Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Ottaway, Marina. 2003. Democracy Challenged: The Rise of Semi-Authoritarianism. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Google Scholar
Paxton, Pamela, Bollen, Kenneth A., Lee, Deborah M. Kim, HyoJoung. 2003. A Half-Century of Suffrage: New Data and a Comparative Analysis. Studies in Comparative International Development 38 (1):93122.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam. 1991. Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Przeworski. 2009a. Constraints and Choices: Electoral Participation in Historical Perspective. Comparative Political Studies 42 (1):430.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Przeworski. 2009b. The Mechanics of Regime Instability in Latin America. Journal of Politics in Latin America 1 (1):536.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, Alvarez, Michael E., Cheibub, José A. Limongi, Fernando. 2000. Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Robbins, Michael D.H. Tessler, Mark. 2012. The Effect of Elections on Public Opinion Toward Democracy: Evidence from Longitudinal Survey Research in Algeria. Comparative Political Studies 45 (10):12551276.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rose, Richard Shin, Doh Chull. 2001. Democratization Backwards: The Problem of Third-Wave Democracies. British Journal of Political Science 31:331354.Google Scholar
Schedler, Andreas. 2002. The Nested Game of Democratization by Elections. International Political Science Review 23 (1):103122.Google Scholar
Schedler, Andreas. ed. 2006 Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Schedler, Andreas. 2009. The Contingent Power of Authoritarian Elections. In Democratization by Elections: A New Mode of Transition, edited by Staffan I. Lindberg, 291313. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Stasavage, David. 2010. When Distance Mattered: Geographic Scale and the Development of European Representative Assemblies. American Political Science Review 104 (4):625643.Google Scholar
Teorell, Jan Hadenius, Axel. 2009. Elections as Levers of Democratization: A Global Inquiry. In Democratization by Elections: A New Mode of Transition, edited by Staffan I. Lindberg. 77100. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Tucker, Joshua A. 2007. Enough! Electoral Fraud, Collective Action Problems, and Post-Communist Colored Revolutions. Perspectives on Politics 5 (3):535551.Google Scholar
Valenzuela, J. Samuel. 1996. Building Aspects of Democracy Before Democracy: Electoral Practices in Nineteenth-Century Chile. In Elections before Democracy: The History of Elections in Europe and Latin America, edited by Eduardo Posado-Carbo, 223257. New York: St. Martin's Press.Google Scholar
Vanhanen, Tatu. 2003. Democratization and Power Resources 1850–2000. FSD1216, version 1.0 Tampere: Finnish Social Science Data Archive.Google Scholar
Vanhanen, Tatu. 2005. Measures of Democracy, 1810-2004. FSD1289, version 2.0. Tampere: Finnish Social Science Data Archive.Google Scholar
Weeks, Jessica L. 2012. Strongmen and Straw Men: Authoritarian Regimes and the Initiation of International Conflict. American Political Science Review 106 (2):326347.Google Scholar
Wigell, Mikael. 2008. Mapping ‘Hybrid Regimes’: Regime Types and Concepts in Comparative Politics. Democratization 15 (2):230250.Google Scholar
World Bank. 2011. Statistics Retrieved 2011, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI). Available from http://www.worldbank.org/data, accessed October 2012.Google Scholar
Wright, Joseph Escribà-Folch, Abel. 2012. Authoritarian Institutions and Regime Survival: Transitions to Democracy and Subsequent Autocracy. British Journal of Political Science 42 (2):283309.Google Scholar
Zakaria, Fareed. 2003. The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad. New York: W.W. Norton.Google Scholar
Ziblatt, Daniel. 2006. How did Europe Democratize? World Politics 58:311338.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Miller Supplementary Material

Supplementary Material

Download Miller Supplementary Material(File)
File 5.1 MB
Supplementary material: PDF

Miller Supplementary Material

Appendix

Download Miller Supplementary Material(PDF)
PDF 127.5 KB