Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-ws8qp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-26T16:35:12.764Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Alliance Reliability in Times of War: Explaining State Decisions to Violate Treaties

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 October 2003

Get access

Abstract

Understanding the conditions under which state leaders are willing to honor alliance commitments in war will increase knowledge about the escalation and diffusion of conflict and about the propensity of states to fulfill agreements under anarchy. New data analysis provides evidence that alliance commitments are fulfilled about 75 percent of the time. But how can one understand the failure of alliance partners to act as promised in the remaining 25 percent of cases? Formal modelers have deduced that because of the costs associated with alliances, state leaders who form alliances are likely to fulfill them; those alliances that are formed should be fairly reliable. I argue, therefore, that one can best account for violations of alliance agreements either through an understanding of the factors that reduce the costs of violation or through changes that have occurred since the alliance was formed. Using detailed data on alliance commitments between 1816 and 1944, I find evidence commensurate with this argument. Changes in the power of states or in their policymaking processes are powerful predictors of the failure to honor past commitments; and nondemocratic states and major powers, sets of states that I argue suffer lower costs from reneging on agreements, are more likely to violate treaties.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2003

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adamthwaite, Anthony P. 1977. The Making of the Second World War. London: George Allen and Unwin.Google Scholar
Bennett, D. Scott. 1997. Testing Alternative Models of Alliance Duration, 1816–1984. American Journal of Political Science 41 (3):846–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennett, D. Scott, and Stam, Allan C.. 2000. EUGene: A Conceptual Manual. International Interactions 26 (2):179204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bolks, Sean M. 1998. Security Policy Choices: Foreign Policy Behavior as a Function of Threat, Capability, and Government Structure. Ph.D. diss., Rice University.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Morrow, James D., Siverson, Randolph M., and Smith, Alastair. 1999. An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace. American Political Science Review 93 (4):791808.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conybeare, John A. C. 1992. A Portfolio Diversification Model of Alliances: The Triple Alliance and Triple Entente, 1879–1914. Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (1):5385.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conybeare, John A. C. 1994. The Portfolio Benefits of Free Riding in Military Alliances. International Studies Quarterly 38 (3):405–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cooke, W. Henry, and Stickney, Edith P.. 1931. Readings In European International Relations Since 1879. New York: Harper and Bros.Google Scholar
Downs, George W., Rocke, David M., and Barsoom, Peter N.. 1996. Is the Good News About Compliance Good News About Cooperation? International Organization 50 (3):379406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994. Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes. American Political Science Review 88 (3):577–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1997. Signaling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands Versus Sinking Costs. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (1):6890.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1998. Bargaining, Enforcement, and International Cooperation. International Organization 52 (2):269305.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gantenbein, James W., ed. 1975. Documentary Background of World War II 1931–1941. New York: Octagon Books.Google Scholar
Gartner, Scott Sigmund, and Siverson, Randolph M.. 1996. War Expansion and War Outcome. Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1):415.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartzke, Erik, and Gleditsch, Kristian S.. 2002. Regime Type and Commitment: Why Democracies Are Actually Less Reliable Allies. Paper presented at the 43d Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, March, New Orleans, La.Google Scholar
Gaubatz, Kurt Taylor. 1996. Democratic States and Commitment in International Relations. International Organization 50 (1):109–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Great Britain Foreign Office. Various years. British and Foreign State Papers. 170 vols. London: James Ridgway and Sons.Google Scholar
Grenville, John A. S. 1987. The Major International Treaties 1914–1945: A History and Guide with Texts. New York: Methuen.Google Scholar
Jaggers, Keith, and Gurr, Ted Robert. 1996. Polity III: Regime Change and Political Authority, 1800–1994. 2d ed. Study. Ann Arbor, Mich.: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.Google Scholar
Jones, Daniel M., Bremer, Stuart A., and Singer, J. David. 1996. Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science 15 (2):163213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kegley, Charles W. Jr and Raymond, Gregory A.. 1990. When Trust Breaks Down: Alliance Norms and World Politics. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Keohane, Robert O. 1984. After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Keohane, Robert O., and Martin, Lisa L.. 1995. The Promise of Institutionalist Theory. International Security 20(1):3951.Google Scholar
Koremenos, Barbara, Lipson, Charles, and Snidal, Duncan. 2001. The Rational Design of International Institutions. International Organization 55 (4):761–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krause, Volker, and Singer, J. David. 1997. Patterns of Alliance Commitments and the Risk of Armed Conflict Involvement, 1816–1984. In Enforcing Cooperation: Risky States and Intergovernmental Management of Conflict, edited by Schneider, Gerald and Weitsman, Patricia A., 81103. New York: St. Martin's Press.Google Scholar
Lake, David A. 1996. Anarchy, Hierarchy, and the Variety of International Relations. International Organization 50 (1):133.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lake, David A. 1999. Entangling Relations: American Foreign Policy in Its Century. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Langsam, Walter Consuelo. 1948. The World Since 1914. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
League of Nations. Various years. Treaty Series: Publications of Treaties and International Engagements Registered with the Secretariat of the League. 205 vols. London: Harrison & Sons.Google Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley. 1999. Domestic Political Institutions, Credible Commitments, and International Cooperation. American Journal of Political Science 43 (4):9791002.Google Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley. 2000. Credible Commitments and International Cooperation: Guaranteeing Contracts Without External Enforcement. Conflict Management and Peace Science 18 (1):4971.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley. 2003. Do Alliances Deter Aggression? Military Alliances and the Initiation of Militarized Interstate Disputes. American Journal of Political Science 47 (3):427–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley, Long, Andrew G., and Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin. 2000. Reevaluating Alliance Reliability: Specific Threats, Specific Promises. Journal of Conflict Resolution 44 (5):686–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley, Ritter, Jeffrey M., Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin, and Long, Andrew G.. 2002. Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions, 1815–1944. International Interactions 28 (3):237–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maoz, Zeev. 1996. Domestic Sources of Global Change. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martin, Lisa L. 2000. Democratic Commitments: Legislatures and International Cooperation. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
McGillivray, Fiona, and Smith, Alastair. 2000. Trust and Cooperation Through Agent Specific Punishments. International Organization 54 (4):809–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGinnis, Michael D. 1990. A Rational Model of Regional Rivalry. International Studies Quarterly 34(1):111–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McLaughlin, Sara, Gates, Scott, Hegre, Havard, Gissinger, Ranveig, and Gleditsch, Nils Petter. 1998. Timing the Changes in Political Structures: A New Polity Database. Journal of Conflict Resolution 42 (2):231–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. 1995. The False Promise of International Institutions. International Security 19 (3):549.Google Scholar
Morgan, T. Clifton, and Campbell, Sally Howard. 1991. Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War: So Why Kant Democracies Fight? Journal of Conflict Resolution 35 (2):187211.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1991. Alliances and Asymmetry: An Alternative to the Capability Aggregation Model of Alliances. American Journal of Political Science 35 (4):904–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1994. Alliances, Credibility, and Peacetime Costs. Journal of Conflict Resolution 38 (2):270–97.Google Scholar
Moul, William B. 1988. Great Power Nondefense Alliances and the Escalation to War of Conflicts Between Unequals, 1815–1939. International Interactions 15 (1):2543.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parker, Robert A. C. 1969. Europe 1919–45. London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson.Google Scholar
Pregibon, Daryl. 1981. Logistic Regression Diagnostics. Annals of Statistics 9 (4):705–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Przeworski, Adam. 1991. Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rogers, William. 1993. Regression Standard Errors in Clustered Samples. Stata Technical Bulletin 13:1923.Google Scholar
Ross, Graham. 1983. The Great Powers and the Decline of the European States System 1914–1945. New York: Longman.Google Scholar
Russett, Bruce M. 1993. Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post–Cold War World. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Sabrosky, Alan Ned. 1980. Interstate Alliances: Their Reliability and the Expansion of War. In The Correlates of War, vol. 2, edited by Singer, J. David, 161–98. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Schroeder, Paul W. 1976. Alliances, 1815–1945: Weapons of Power and Tools of Management. In Historical Dimensions of National Security Problems, edited by Knorr, Klaus, 227–62. Lawrence: University of Kansas Press.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David, and Small, Melvin. 1994. Correlates of War Project: International and Civil War Data, 1816–1992 [computer file] (study no. 9905). Ann Arbor, Mich.: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. Available at ⟨www.icpsr.umich.edu⟩.Google Scholar
Siverson, Randolph M., and King, Joel. 1980. Attributes of National Alliance Membership and War Participation, 1815–1965. American Journal of Political Science 24 (1):115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Siverson, Randolph M., and Starr, Harvey. 1994. Regime Change and the Restructuring of Alliances. American Journal of Political Science 38 (1):145–61.Google Scholar
Small, Melvin, and Singer, J. David. 1982. Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816–1980. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1995. Alliance Formation and War. International Studies Quarterly 39 (4):405–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1996. To Intervene or Not to Intervene: A Biased Decision. Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1):1640.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1998a. Extended Deterrence and Alliance Formation. International Interactions 24 (4):315–43.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1998b. International Crises and Domestic Politics. American Political Science Review 92 (3):623–38.Google Scholar
Snyder, Glenn H. 1984. The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics. World Politics 36 (4):461–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snyder, Glenn H. 1997. Alliance Politics. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Taylor, A. J. P. 1954. The Struggle for Mastery in Europe, 1848–1918. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar