An unobserved components and a conventional first-order autoregressive (AR) model with constant are analyzed with the adjusted profile likelihood of Cox and Reid (1987, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 49, 1–39; 1993, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 55, 467–71). Both the unobserved components model and the Cox–Reid adjustment can provide more accurate estimates of an AR coefficient of unity. The unobserved components model yields more powerful unit-root tests. In general the most powerful test utilizes the adjustment. Under the unobserved components model the adjusted statistics follow the asymptotic distributions better than the unadjusted.The basis of this research is my D. Phil. thesis (1997) for the University of Oxford. I am grateful to David Hendry for supervision and to Pentti Saikkonen for most helpful advice. I appreciate also the CBRT Young Economist Award with which I was honored after presenting a previous version at the 1998 erc/METU International Conference on Economics. I remain responsible for any errors. Financial support by the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation and Academy of Finland is gratefully acknowledged.

This paper proposes model selection criteria (MSC) for unconditional moment models using generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) statistics. The use of GEL-statistics in lieu of J-statistics (in the spirit of Andrews, 1999, Econometrica 67, 543–564; and Andrews and Lu, 2001, Journal of Econometrics 101, 123–164) leads to an alternative interpretation of the MSCs that emphasizes the common information-theoretic rationale underlying model selection procedures for both parametric and semiparametric models. The result of this paper also provides a GEL-based model selection alternative to the information criteria–based nonnested tests for generalized method of moments models considered in Kitamura (2000, University of Wisconsin). The results of a Monte Carlo experiment are reported to illustrate the finite-sample performance of the selection criteria and their impact on parameter estimation.The authors gratefully acknowledge support from the NSF (Hong: SES-0079495, Shum: SES-0003352) and the Fellowship of Woodrow Wilson Scholars (Preston). We thank the co-editor Don Andrews, Xiaohong Chen, John Geweke, Bo Honore, Yuichi Kitamura, Serena Ng, Harry Paarsch, Gautam Tripathi, and two anonymous referees for insightful suggestions and helpful comments.

It is well known that the unrestricted bootstrap estimator of the slope parameter in the random walk model without drift converges to a random distribution. This bootstrap failure is commonly attributed to the discontinuity of the limit distribution of the least-squares estimator in the parameter of interest. We demonstrate by counterexample that this type of continuity is not essential for the validity of the bootstrap nor is it essential that the rate of convergence of the estimator remain constant over the whole parameter space.We thank Don Andrews, Shinichi Sakata, Jonathan Wright, and two anonymous referees for very helpful comments. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank or its members.

We consider the limiting behavior of the overidentifying restrictions test in the presence of neglected structural instability at a single “break point.” It is shown that the test need not be consistent against this type of misspecification. If it is consistent then it emerges that the limiting behavior of this test statistic depends on the covariance matrix estimator employed. In this paper we consider the case in which a heteroskedasticity autocorrelation covariance (HAC) is used. It is shown that (i) if the HAC estimator is based on uncentered autocovariances then the overidentifying restrictions test diverges at rate T/bT where T is the sample size and bT is the bandwidth; (ii) if the HAC estimator is based on centered autocovariances then the rate of increase of the overidentifying restrictions test is either T/bT or T depending on the form of the instability. These results are used to provide conditions for the consistency of the method of moment selection of Andrews (1999, Econometrica 67, 543–564) when certain elements of the candidate set of moments are misspecified as a result of neglected structural instability.This work was begun while Hall was a Senior Research Fellow and Peixe was a graduate student at the Department of Economics, University of Birmingham, UK, and this support is gratefully acknowledged. Peixe also gratefully acknowledges financial support from FCT under Grant PRAXIS XXI/BD/13453/97. We are very grateful for the very useful comments of Don Andrews and two anonymous referees.

Let g(λ) be the spectral density of a stationary process and let fθ(λ), θ ∈ Θ, be a fitted spectral model for g(λ). A minimum contrast estimator of θ is defined that minimizes a distance between , where is a nonparametric spectral density estimator based on n observations. It is known that is asymptotically Gaussian efficient if g(λ) = fθ(λ). Because there are infinitely many candidates for the distance function , this paper discusses higher order asymptotic theory for in relation to the choice of D. First, the second-order Edgeworth expansion for is derived. Then it is shown that the bias-adjusted version of is not second-order asymptotically efficient in general. This is in sharp contrast with regular parametric estimation, where it is known that if an estimator is first-order asymptotically efficient, then it is automatically second-order asymptotically efficient after a suitable bias adjustment (e.g., Ghosh, 1994, Higher Order Asymptotics, p. 57). The paper establishes therefore that for semiparametric estimation it does not hold in general that “first-order efficiency implies second-order efficiency.” The paper develops verifiable conditions on D that imply second-order efficiency.This paper was written while the first author was visiting the University of Bristol as a Benjamin Meaker Professor. The second author was previously at Bristol and is now supported by a fellowship of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. We are grateful to the co-editor Pentti Saikkonen and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments, which significantly improved the paper.

In this paper we introduce a general method for estimating semiparametrically the different components in separable models. The family of separable models is quite popular in economic research because this structure offers clear interpretation, has straightforward economic consequences, and is often justified by theory. This family is also of statistical interest because it allows us to estimate high-dimensional complexity semiparametrically without running into the curse of dimensionality. We consider even the case when multiple indices appear in the objective function; thus we can estimate models that are typical in economic analysis, such as those that contain limited dependent variables. The idea of the new method is mainly based on a generalized profile likelihood approach. Although this requires some hypotheses on the conditional error distribution, it yields a quite general usable method with low computational costs but high accuracy even for small samples. We give estimation procedures and provide some asymptotic theory. Implementation is discussed; simulations and an application demonstrate its feasibility and good finite-sample behavior.This research was financially supported by Dirección General de Investigación del Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología under research grants BEC2001-1121 and BEC2001-1270; Dirección General de Enseñanza Superior del Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia under Subprograma de estancias de investigadores españoles en centros de investigación españoles y extranjeros, ref. PR2000-0096; and by the Danish Social Science Research fund. We also thank M. Delgado, O. Linton, two anonymous referees, and all participants of the working group STAPH on functional statistics in Toulouse, the activities of which are available on line at http://www.lsp.upstlse.fr/Fp/Ferraty/staph.html.

This paper considers estimation of a sample selection model subject to conditional heteroskedasticity in both the selection and outcome equations. The form of heteroskedasticity allowed for in each equation is multiplicative, and each of the two scale functions is left unspecified. A three-step estimator for the parameters of interest in the outcome equation is proposed. The first two stages involve nonparametric estimation of the “propensity score” and the conditional interquartile range of the outcome equation, respectively. The third stage reweights the data so that the conditional expectation of the reweighted dependent variable is of a partially linear form, and the parameters of interest are estimated by an approach analogous to that adopted in Ahn and Powell (1993, Journal of Econometrics 58, 3–29). Under standard regularity conditions the proposed estimator is shown to be -consistent and asymptotically normal, and the form of its limiting covariance matrix is derived.We are grateful to B. Honoré, R. Klein, E. Kyriazidou, L.-F. Lee, J. Powell, two anonymous referees, and the co-editor D. Andrews and also to seminar participants at Princeton, Queens, UCLA, and the University of Toronto for helpful comments. Chen's research was supported by RGC grant HKUST 6070/01H from the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong.

We propose a new diagnostic test for linear and nonlinear time series models, using a generalized spectral approach. Under a wide class of time series models that includes autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models, the proposed test enjoys the appealing “nuisance-parameter-free” property in the sense that model parameter estimation uncertainty has no impact on the limit distribution of the test statistic. It is consistent against any type of pairwise serial dependence in the model standardized residuals and allows the choice of a proper lag order via data-driven methods. Moreover, the new test is asymptotically more efficient than the correlation integral–based test of Brock, Hsieh, and LeBaron (1991, Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaos, and Instability: Statistical Theory and Economic Evidence) and Brock, Dechert, Scheinkman, and LeBaron (1996, Econometric Reviews 15, 197–235), the well-known BDS test, against a class of plausible local alternatives (not including ARCH). A simulation study compares the finite-sample performance of the proposed test and the tests of BDS, Box and Pierce (1970, Journal of the American Statistical Association 65, 1509–1527), Ljung and Box (1978, Biometrika 65, 297–303), McLeod and Li (1983, Journal of Time Series Analysis 4, 269–273), and Li and Mak (1994, Journal of Time Series Analysis 15, 627–636). The new test has good power against a wide variety of stochastic and chaotic alternatives to the null models for conditional mean and conditional variance. It can play a valuable role in evaluating adequacy of linear and nonlinear time series models. An empirical application to the daily S&P 500 price index highlights the merits of our approach.We thank the co-editor (Don Andrews) and two referees for careful and constructive comments that have lead to significant improvement over an earlier version. We also thank C.W.J. Granger, D. Tjøstheim, and Z. Xiao for helpful comments. Hong's participation is supported by the National Science Foundation via NSF grant SES–0111769. Lee thanks the UCR Academic Senate for research support.

Let and Θ be infinite sets and let × Θ. We show that the class of projections of A onto is a Vapnik–Chervonenkis (VC) class of sets if and only if the class of projections of A onto Θ is a VC class. We illustrate the result in the context of semiparametric estimation of a transformation model. In this application, the VC property is hard to establish for the projection class of interest but easy to establish for the other projection class.

The p values of structural break tests, when the break date or dates are unknown, must be calculated in terms of the probability distributions of functions of Bessel processes. The literature so far has maintained that direct computation of these p values and of the corresponding critical values is too difficult and has relied on approximations based on simulations, asymptotic expansions, or curve fitting. This paper presents a fast simple method of calculating exact p values and critical values and uses the method to evaluate the accuracy of the various approximations.The author is grateful for comments and suggestions from Don Andrews, Clint Cummins, Jeff Fuhrer, Ken Garbade, Jim Mahoney, Tony Rodrigues, Josh Rosenberg, Sebastian Schich, participants in a workshop at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the referees. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

Tables 8, 9, 10, and 11 in Baltagi's “Worldwide Institutional and Individual Rankings in Econometrics over the Period 1989–1999: An Update” (2003, Econometric Theory 19, 165–224) were based on impact factor conversions multiplied by the actual pages in each journal. These should have been multiplied by the standardized pages, with Econometrica having a standardized page of one. The impact factors were additionally divided by 2.072 to make the impact factor for Econometrica equal to one. The corrected tables are given here.

In the past thirty-five years, time-series econometrics developed from infancy to relative maturity. A large part of that development is due to Robert F. Engle, whose work is distinguished by exceptional creativity in the empirical modeling of dynamic economic and financial phenomena. Engle's footsteps range widely, from early work on band-spectral regression, testing, and exogeneity through more recent work on cointegration, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models, and ultra-high-frequency financial asset return dynamics. The booming field of financial econometrics, which did not exist twenty-five years ago, is built in large part on the volatility models pioneered by Engle, and their many variations and extensions, which have found widespread application in financial risk management, asset pricing, and asset allocation.

We began the interview in fall 1998 at Spruce in Chicago, the night before the annual NBER/NSF Time Series Seminar; continued in fall 2000 at Tabla in New York; continued again in summer 2001 at the Conference on Market Microstructure and High-Frequency Data in Finance, Sandbjerg Estate, Denmark; and wrapped up by telephone in January 2003.For their cheerful and effective assistance in transcribing this interview, I thank (without implicating) Sean Campbell, Michele Souli, and Clara Vega.

Unbiasedness of the OLS estimator with random regressors.

The central limit theorem for student's distribution.

02.6.1. Oblique projectorsTwo solutions are published, proposed independently by Götz Trinkler (the poser of the problem) and by Hans Joachim Werner. Excellent solutions have been independently proposed by G. Dhaene, L. Lauwers, S. Lawford, and H. Neudecker.—solution.

02.6.1. Oblique projectors—solution.

Autoregression and redundant instruments—solution.

We are pleased to announce award of the A.R. Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics for 2003. The award is to Dr. Chirok Han, School of Economics and Finance, Victoria University of Wellington, for his paper, “The Bias of Fixed Effects Estimators for Panel Binary Choice Models.”

Econometric Theory is proud to announce the winning article for The Tjalling C. Koopmans Econometric Theory Prize for the period 2000–2002 inclusive. The winning article and citation (written by the Advisory Board) are as follows: Stefan Sperlich, Dag Tjøstheim, and Lijian Yang are awarded the Tjalling C. Koopmans Econometric Theory Prize for their paper Nonparametric Estimation and Testing of Interaction in Additive Models, which appeared in Econometric Theory 18(2), April 2002, pages 197–251