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Von Kries and the other ‘German logicians’: non-numerical probabilities before Keynes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 October 2001

Guido Fioretti
Affiliation:
Università di Firenze

Abstract

Keynes's A Treatise on Probability (Keynes, 1921) contains some quite unusual concepts, such as non-numerical probabilities and the ‘weights of the arguments’ that support probability judgements. Their controversial interpretation gave rise to a huge literature about ‘what Keynes really did mean’, also because Keynes's later views in macroeconomics ultimately rest on his ideas on uncertainty and expectations formation.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2001 Cambridge University Press

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