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The impact of climate change on agro-ecological zones: evidence from Africa

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 August 2012

Namrata Kala ,
Pradeep Kurukulasuriya  and
Robert Mendelsohn
Namrata Kala
Affiliation:
Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, 195 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511, USA. Email: namrata.kala@yale.edu
Pradeep Kurukulasuriya
Affiliation:
United Nations Development Program, USA. Email: pradeep.kurukulasuriya@undp.org
Robert Mendelsohn
Affiliation:
Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, USA. Email: robert.mendelsohn@yale.edu
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Abstract

This study predicts the impact of climate change on African agriculture. We use a generalized linear model (GLM) framework to estimate the relationship between the proportion of various Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) in a district and climate. Using three climate scenarios, we project how climate change will cause AEZs to shift, causing changes in acreage and net revenue per hectare of cropland. Our results predict that Africa will suffer heavy annual welfare losses by 2070–2100, ranging between US$14 billion and US$70 billion, depending on the climate scenario and cropland measure considered.

Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 17 , Issue 6 , December 2012 , pp. 663 - 687
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012

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