Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-8mjnm Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-28T17:51:07.385Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Making Outsiders' Votes Count: Detecting Electoral Fraud through a Natural Experiment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2011

KENTARO FUKUMOTO*
Affiliation:
Gakushuin University
YUSAKU HORIUCHI*
Affiliation:
Australian National University
*
Kentaro Fukumoto is Professor, Department of Political Science, Gakushuin University, 1-5-1 Mejiro, Toshima, Tokyo 171-8588, Japan (Kentaro.Fukumoto@gakushuin.ac.jp).
Yusaku Horiuchi is Associate Professor, Crawford School of Economics and Government, College of Asia and the Pacific, Australian National University, J.G. Crawford Building, No. 132, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia (yusaku.horiuchi@anu.edu.au).

Abstract

Weak electoral registration requirements are commonly thought to encourage electoral participation, but may also promote electoral fraud. As one possibility, candidates and their supporters can more easily mobilize voters who do not reside within the district to register there fraudulently and vote for that district's candidates. We statistically detect this classic type of electoral fraud for the first time, by taking advantage of a natural experimental setting in Japanese municipal elections. We argue that whether or not a municipal election was held in April 2003 can be regarded as an “as-if” randomly assigned treatment. A differences-in-differences analysis of municipality–month panel data shows that the increase in the new population just prior to April 2003 is significantly larger in treatment municipalities (with an election) than in control ones (without an election). The estimated effects are decisive enough to change the electoral results when the election is competitive. We argue that our approach—“election timing as treatment”—can be applied to investigate not only this type of electoral fraud but also electoral connections in other countries.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Alvarez, R. Michael, Hall, Thad E., and Hyde, Susan D.. 2008. Election Fraud: Detecting and Deterring Electoral Manipulation. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
Alvarez, R. Michael, and Katz, Jonathan N.. 2008. “The Case of the 2002 General Election.” In Election Fraud: Detecting and Deterring Electoral Manipulation, eds. Michael Alvarez, R., Hall, Thad E., and Hyde, Susan D.. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 149–61.Google Scholar
Birch, Sarah. 2007. “Electoral Systems and Election Misconduct.” Comparative Political Studies 40 (12): 1533–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Campbell, Tracy. 2005. Deliver the Vote: A History of Election Fraud, an American Political Tradition–1742–2004. New York: Carroll and Graf.Google Scholar
Chang, Eric, and Golden, Miriam. 2006. “Electoral Systems, District Magnitude and Corruption.” British Journal of Political Science 37 (1): 115–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen, Ray, and Colvin, Kyle. 2009. “Stealing Elections: A Comparison of Election-night Corruption in Japan, Canada, and the United States.” In Political Change in Japan: Electoral Behavior, Party Realignment, and the Koizumi Reforms, eds. Reed, Steven R., Mori McElwain, Kenneth, and Shimizu, Kay. Stanford, CA: Shorenstein Asia–Pacific Research Center, 199218.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1972. “Change in American Electorate.” In The Human Meaning of Social Change, eds. Campbell, Angus and Converse, Philip E.. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 263337.Google Scholar
Cox, Gray W., and Morgan Kousser, J.. 1981. “Turnout and Rural Corruption: New York as a Test Case.” American Journal of Political Science 25 (4): 646–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dai 4 Ji Senkyo Seido Shingikai. 1966. Senkyo no Tetsuzuki ni Kansuru Shôiinkai Iinchô Chûkan Hôkoku Yôshi [Chairman's Interim Report Outline of Subcommittee on Electoral Procedures]. February 15.Google Scholar
Dubin, Michael J. 2007. Party Affiliations in the State Legislatures: A Year by Year Summary, 1976–2006. Jefferson, NC: McFarland.Google Scholar
Dunning, Thad. 2008. “Improving Causal Inference: Strengths and Limitations of Natural Experiments.” Political Research Quarterly 61 (2): 282–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fisher, J. A. 1999. “The Probability of Being Decisive.” Public Choice 101: 267–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Horiuchi, Yusaku. 2009. “Mobilization and Participation: A Natural Experiment.” Presented at the Annual Summer Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, New Haven, CT.Google Scholar
Fukumoto, Kentaro, Horiuchi, Yusaku, and Tanaka, Shoichiro. 2011. “Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment to Estimate Electoral Effects on Fiscal Expenditure.” Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago.Google Scholar
Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Ueki, Futoshi. 2011. “Shichôson Senkyo ga Tôitsu Chihô Senkyo kara Itsudatsu Shita Jiki to Riyû.” [“When and Why Did Municipalities Drop from the Simultaneous Local Elections?”] Gakushuin University. Unpublished Manuscript.Google Scholar
Horiuchi, Yusaku. 2005. Institutions, Incentives and Electoral Participation in Japan: Cross-level and Cross-national Perspectives. London: Routledge Curzon.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Horiuchi, Yusaku. 2009. “Understanding Japanese Politics from a Local Perspective.” International Political Science Review 30 (5): 565–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
HutchesonJohn A., Jr. John A., Jr. 1997. “Elections and the Franchise.” In Britain in the Hanoverian Age, 1714–1837: An Encyclopedia, eds. Newman, Gerald and Ellen Brown, Leslie. New York: Garland Publishing, 222–24.Google Scholar
Hyde, Susan D. 2007. “The Observer Effect in International Politics: Evidence from a Natural Experiment.” World Politics 60 (1): 3763.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hyde, Susan D. 2008. “How International Election Observers Detect and Deter Fraud.” In Election Fraud: Detective and Deterring Electoral Manipulation, eds. Alvarez, R. Michael, Hall, Thad E., and Hyde, Susan D.. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 201–15.Google Scholar
Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, the Parliament of Australia. 2001. User Friendly, Not Abuser Friendly: Report of the Inquiry into the Integrity of the Electoral Roll. http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/em/ElecRoll/Report.htm (accessed June 10, 2011).Google Scholar
Keisatsuchô, . 2003. Hanzai Tôkeisho [Criminal Statistics].Google Scholar
Lehoucq, Fabrice. 2003. “Electoral Fraud: Causes, Types and Consequences.” Annual Review of Political Science 6: 233–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lehoucq, Fabrice E., and Molina, Ivan. 2002. Stuffing the Ballot Box: Fraud, Electoral Reform, and Democratization in Costa Rica. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacManus, Susan. 1999. “The Resurgent City Councils.” In American State and Local Politics: Directions for the 21st Century, eds. Weber, Ronald E. and Brace, Paul. New York: Seven Bridges, 166–93.Google Scholar
Mayhew, David R. 1974. Congress: The Electoral Connection. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Mebane, Walter R. 2008. “Election Forensics: The Second-digit Benford's Law Test and Recent American Presidential Elections.” In Election Fraud: Detecting and Deterring Electoral Manipulation, eds. Alvarez, R. Michael, Hall, Thad E., and Hyde, Susan D.. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 162–81.Google Scholar
Minnite, Lorraine C. 2010. The Myth of Voter Fraud. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Moore, John L., Preimesberger, Jon P., and Tarr, David R., eds. 2001. Congressional Quarterly's Guide to U.S. Elections. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly.Google Scholar
Myagkov, Mikhail, Ordeshook, Peter C., and Shakin, Dimitri. 2009. The Forensics of Election Fraud: Russia and Ukraine. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nyblade, Benjamin, and Reed, Steven R.. 2008. “Who Cheats? Who Loots? Political Competition and Corruption in Japan, 1947–1993.” American Journal of Political Science 52 (4): 926–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Persson, Torsten, Tabellini, Guido, and Trebbi, Francesco. 2003. “Electoral Rules and Corruption.” Journal of the European Economic Association 1 (4): 958–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piven, Frances Fox, and Cloward, Richard A.. 2000. Why Americans Still Don't Vote: And Why Politicians Want It That Way. Rev. and updated ed. Boston: Beacon.Google Scholar
Riker, William H., and Ordeshook, Peter C.. 1968. “A Theory of the Calculus of Voting.” American Political Science Review 62 (1): 2542.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J., and Mark Hansen, John. 1993. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Sadiq, Kamal. 2005. “When States Prefer Non-citizens over Citizens: Conflict over Illegal Immigration into Malaysia.”International Studies Quarterly 49 (1): 101–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Senate, Parliament of the Czech Republic. 2011. “How Are Senators Elected?” http://www.senat.cz/volby/ (accessed February 18, 2011).Google Scholar
Shepsle, Kenneth A., Van Houweling, Robert P., Abrams, Samuel J., and Hanson, Peter C.. 2009. “The Senate Electoral Cycle and Bicameral Appropriations Politics.” American Journal of Political Science 53 (2): 343–59.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sômushô Jichigyôsei Kyoku Senkyo Bu. 2003. Chihô Senkyo Kekka Shirabe [Survey of the Local Election Results].Google Scholar
Sômushô Tôkei Kyoku. 2001–2004. Jûmin Kihon Daichô Jinkô Idô Hôkoku [Report of Population Migration in Residential Basic Book]. http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/estat/List.do?lid=000001012090 (accessed June 12, 2009).Google Scholar
Wand, Jonathan N., Shotts, Kenneth W., Sekhon, Jasjeet S., Mebane, Walter R. Jr., Herron, Michel C., and Brady, Henry E.. 2001. “The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida.” American Political Science Review 95 (4): 793810.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Rosenstone, Steven J.. 1980. Who Votes? New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar