From data from the 1971 Melbourne Family Survey a comparison has been made of the number of children that respondents first planned to have, their expected family size, and their preferred family size, to determine factors associated with their ability to adhere to the original plans, and satisfaction with their ultimate family size. The data suggest that, after beginning their childbearing, some women change their minds about how many children they want, while others are unable to have as many children as they want or else have more than they really want. A substantial proportion of women would have preferred to have a family size different from the one they have attained, and more consistent with the number of children they had originally planned.

This paper reports the results of a sample survey of ZPG members undertaken in April 1971 to ascertain if any changes had occurred in membership attributes since the first survey in September 1970 and to investigate additional characteristics. Age, education, religion and student/ non-student status are considered in relation to length of membership of ZPG. Income, political activities, intended family size and opinions about ideal population size and population control are also examined, including attitudes towards vasectomy and abortion.

It is concluded that, among members of voluntary organizations, demographic factors such as age, education, religion and sex do not possess a causal relationship with social behaviour.

In a comprehensive epidemiological study conducted by a census survey in a population of 29,468 individuals in the Agra region of Uttar Pradesh, northern India, 261 cases of conversion symptoms in the form of hysterical fits were detected constituting a prevalence rate of 8.9 per thousand (Dube, 1970). The study population consisted of residents in urban, semi-rural and rural areas. The prevalence rate was significantly higher in urban than in rural areas. Females constituted 96.1% of all cases of hysteria. The highest incidence rate was in the age group 15–24 years. The role of caste, marital status and educational level, found to be associated with the occurrence of symptoms, has been discussed.

The incidence of anencephalus and other malformations of the central nervous system (CNS) is much higher in the United Kingdom than in other countries of Western Europe which were not industrialized to the same extent. In the UK the incidence is highest in the unskilled manual occupational group, especially in the large cities of the North of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Standards of living have been low in these areas for many years and deteriorated sharply at the time of the worldwide industrial depression from 1928 to 1934. The population tended to be stunted in stature and to show other signs of chronic malnutrition.

The cohort of women born in these years had an unusually high stillbirth rate from anencephalus (and from all other CNS malformations) from about 1946 onwards. It was highest in the early 1960s when these women were at the peak of their reproductive activity. This suggests that the severe malnutrition to which they were subjected before and soon after birth resulted in severe damage, which reduced their reproductive efficiency as demonstrated by the unusually high perinatal death rate from all CNS malformations. Not surprisingly the death rate rose sooner, lasted longer and reached a higher level in social classes IV and V than in social classes I and II. Other evidence of damage was an increase in the incidence of low birth weight babies with a corresponding increase in the perinatal death rate from this cause.

In Scotland the stillbirth rate from anencephalus was approximately 2·1 per 1000 in 1948–49, 3·4 at its highest point between 1961 and 1963 and 2·1 in 1968, by which time the women born in the years of the depression had completed their childbearing. A teratogen acting during a particular period of time could not provide a satisfactory explanation for this sequence of events.

Birth order and family size have been studied in a representative sample (10,000) of the adult population of Great Britain. This was done to test theoretical predictions about the ways in which the birth-order distribution in a population sample will be biased by secular changes in family size. The principal predictions were that, in a sample born during a period when family size was decreasing, the distribution of birth ranks in the larger families would be biased towards an over-representation of later born subjects (i.e. those lower in birth order), while in smaller families there would be an under-representation of later born. In a sample born during a period when family size was increasing, the reverse effects would occur. It was also predicted that among subjects from large families there would be an excess of females; and that the extent of the bias due to decrease in family size would be greatest in the unskilled and least in the highly skilled social classes.

The findings confirmed these predictions. The sample also showed an un-predicted excess of subjects in the middle ranks of families. It is suggested that the hypothesis of birth rate bias may be used for predicting the type of birth-order distribution to be expected in a sample of any population.

It is well established that, in general, pregnancies at advanced maternal ages or of advanced birth order are at greater risk of aborting spontaneously. It does not follow that each individual woman, as she proceeds through her reproductive life, becomes steadily more prone to abort. The present paper attempts to analyse evidence on how individual women's abortion probabilities vary during their reproductive lives. Statistical examination of the data suggests that:

1. A spontaneous abortion in a given birth rank is more likely than a live birth in the same rank to be followed by a further pregnancy. Abortion-prone women have more pregnancies than other women.

2. There is no significant overall tendency for spontaneous abortions to appear early or late in sibships even when account is taken of the reproductive compensation reported above.

3. Pathological examination of spontaneously aborted fetuses suggests that more (perhaps many more) than 10% of spontaneous abortions (e.g. those associated with trisomy and maternal isoimmunization) are causally associated with advanced maternal age or birth order.

4. The mean maternal age of spontaneously aborted fetuses which fail to grow in culture is higher than that of fetuses which are successfully cultured.

One would infer:

A. (from suggestions 1 and 2 above) that reproductive compensation (rather than a real birth order effect) is a major reason why abortion rates are higher at higher maternal ages and higher birth ranks;

B. (from suggestions 2 and 3 above) that there must be another group of abortions, roughly equal in number, which are causally associated with low maternal age or early birth order.

Little is known about this second group of reproductive casualties (those associated with low birth order or maternal age), but it is suggested that some have CNS malformations. I have made similar suggestions in regard to stillbirth and neonatal death.

In a survey in Coventry of 1079 post-natal patients, 11% (104) of married women and 46% (32) of single women stated that this birth was unwanted and emotionally distressing. The married women with unwanted births were the same age as other married women, but had substantially larger families. The single women with unwanted births were younger and all had left school at 16 years or below. Ten per cent of married women and 28% of single women with unwanted births had no knowledge of contraception and 28% of married women and 78% of single women with unwanted births had not used any contraceptive methods. Seventy-six per cent of married women and 78% of single women with unwanted births would have liked further professional advice.

A survey of married men living with their wives revealed that they had, on the average, been married for 14 years and had 2.8 children. The men in this survey were found to be positively oriented towards family planning. Seventy-nine per cent were using a contraceptive at the time of the survey. The analysis revealed that race and education explained differences in contraceptive practice. Black males reported using more effective methods, namely the pill, than white males. The examination of the effect of education revealed that as education increased, the racial differences persisted except for those men with education beyond high school.

In a pilot survey about family size and the use of contraception for which the sample was the parents of legitimate babies the interviews with fathers were systematically divided between men and women interviewers. There was no difference in the response rate of the two groups and although there were some differences in the types of answers given to certain questions most of the differences might have occurred by chance. We could not see any clear pattern in the sorts of response that varied.

A hypothesis about the variation was put forward by some of our advisers and we collected some further information about this which did not support the hypothesis. On the basis of this study we do not feel it necessary to recruit and train men to interview the fathers on the main study but are using women interviewers for both mothers and fathers.

An analysis of 96% of Israeli live births, 1968–70, gives a mean birth weight of 3299 ± 543 g with 5·7% weighing less than 2500 g. The mean values increased from 3193 ± 510 g for first born to 3469 ± 604 g for tenth and subsequent births.

There were significant differences between the mean birth weights, adjusted for birth order, of the different ethnic-origin groups. Infants of Jewish immigrants from North African countries weighed 3356 g followed by Christian Arabs (3337 g), Israeli-born Jews (3310 g), immigrants from Western countries (3303 g), Moslem Arabs (3251 g), Druze (3244 g) and immigrants from countries of Asia (3223 g).

For the Jewish groups, the differences were diminished in the second generation of Israeli-born but those descended from Asian immigrants continued to be the lighter group.

In order to determine the extent to which these differences are truly ‘ethnic’ further analyses of more homogeneous groups will be necessary taking into account a number of other demographic and socio-economic variables. (Summary in Hebrew, p. 58.)

The relative stability of many rates of suicide, particularly those of national groups, has for a long time been of interest to sociologists. Durkheim (1952), an early and major writer on suicide, used the fact of relative stability as an argument for the existence of a social dimension to individuals’ actions, even such an apparently personal action as suicide (Cresswell, 1972). Durkheim argued that each nation had a collective tendency towards suicide such that, providing the circumstances of the nation did not change in any essential way, its suicide rate also would not change. His followers, taking this sort of position as given, have related suicide rates to components of social structure or culture of the groups to which the rates refer (e.g. Gibbs & Martin, 1964). Such a procedure implies a relationship, not necessarily a specifically causal one, between suicide and the various aspects of society with which it is correlated. For the procedure to be potentially valid two major conditions must hold good. The first is that the aggregate numbers of ‘suicides’ which are used to compile suicide rates do actually represent the real number of suicidal deaths in a given population over a given period of time. This pre-supposes, of course, that some deaths have defining characteristics in their manner of occurrence which clearly demarcate them as suicide; given this, the problem is one of identification rather than of definition. The second condition is that since suicide rates are compiled from individual deaths, it should be possible to posit, if not actually demon-strate, a relationship between the social or cultural influences which are supposed to generate stable rates of suicide and the individual instances of suicide.

The method of decomposition is applied to evaluate the role played by fertility and age composition of women at risk in annual fluctuations in the number of legitimate live births in England and Wales during the period 1956–70. The analysis shows that the upward trend in the numbers of births during the period 1956–64 was mainly due to a rise in the level of period fertility and that the downward trend thereafter has been due to a declining trend in fertility alone. The analysis also shows that the size and age distribution of women at risk have strongly affected the size of birth cohorts born since 1964. Such effects have been in the direction of increasing the numbers of births to women under 25 years of age in a period of falling fertility.

The Board of the Marie Stopes Memorial Foundation organized in 1971 the first of a series of Marie Stopes Memorial Lectures to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the opening of her first clinic in Holloway in 1921 (Taylor, 1971). A second lecture was arranged in 1972 (Mitchell, 1973). For 1973, the Board decided to vary the pattern and asked us to write an account of the clinic in the 1920s and 1930s, a neglected subject compared with the voluminous studies of Marie Stopes herself. In accepting this invitation, we realized that there was some factual material available, but that for the human touch we should have to rely largely on those still available who knew the clinic in its early days. It seemed therefore that the interview technique would be best suited to bringing out the highlights. In this we have been fortunate in having the most helpful co-operation.

This paper introduces the concept of the ‘age-profile’, which represents the proportions of cohort populations surviving from birth to a given year. Life tables for Australia and three-dimensional diagrams based on these data are used to illustrate the difference between the ‘age-profile’ values for a given year and the transverse survival values for the same year. The last part of the paper describes areas in which the ‘age-profile’ might be used with reference to its value in representing the experience of cohorts.

A recent paper published in this journal (Poole & Kuhn, 1973) has reported that ‘a relatively large family appeared to be no impediment to the educational achievements of middle-class children’. This finding, however, is based upon an analysis which fell into a relatively unknown statistical trap. Poole & Kuhn are only the latest in a long line of victims of this trap and some of their predecessors are reviewed below.

Fertility in New Guinea highlanders was lower than in the Karkar coastal population. Karkar fertility has been reduced in younger women and this appears to be associated with increased educational opportunity. Polygamy is common in the Highlands but unusual on the coast. Fertility appeared to be unrelated to religious affiliation or employment status. Both communities had some knowledge of contraception, abortion and fertility promotion, and on Karkar there was a knowledge of the advantages of medical advice concerning family planning. Mortality levels in the two communities were comparable, from the mid-trimester of pregnancy through early childhood. The estimated life expectancies at birth are within the accepted range for other areas of New Guinea.