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On the possibility of the long-term forecast of solar activity using radiocarbon sunspot proxy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 March 2005

M.G. Ogurtsov
M.G. Ogurtsov
Affiliation:
Ioffe Physico-Technical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Politekhnicheskaya str. 26, 194021 St. Petersburg, Russia e-mail: Maxim.Ogurtsov@mail.ioffe.ru
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Abstract

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The reconstruction of sunspot numbers from the decadal radiocarbon series was made for the time interval 8005 B.C. - 1945 A.D using five-box carbon exchange model. Analyses showed apparent persistency in the reconstructed Wolf number series. It indicates the existence of long-term memory in solar activity. Nonlinear forecast of the mean value of Wolf number is made for the next 40 years using obtained radiocarbon proxy. Comparison of the results with the long-term forecasts of the other authors was performed.To search for other articles by the author(s) go to: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html

Type
Contributed Papers
Information
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union , Volume 2004 , Issue IAUS223 , June 2004 , pp. 135 - 136
Copyright
© 2004 International Astronomical Union