Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-fqc5m Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-28T11:50:26.767Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Polls, Forecasts, and Aggregators

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 April 2014

Mark Blumenthal*
Affiliation:
The Huffington Post

Abstract

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Symposium: US Presidential Election Forecasting
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Blumberg, Steven J., and Luke, Julian V. 2013. Wireless Substitution: Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, July-December 2012. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/wireless201306.pdf (September 17, 2013).Google Scholar
Blumenthal, Mark. 2008. “More on the ‘Convergence Mystery’.” Pollster.com. http://www.pollster.com/blogs/more_on_the_convergence_myster.php?nr=1 (September 18, 2013).Google Scholar
Blumenthal, Mark. 2010. “Rating Pollster Accuracy: How Useful?Pollster.com. http://www.pollster.com/blogs/rating_pollster_accuracy_predi.php?nr=1 (September 17, 2013).Google Scholar
Blumenthal, Mark, and Edwards-Levy, Ariel. 2013. “HUFFPOLLSTER: When Is It OK to Weight Polls by Past Vote?Huffington Post. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/13/weight-polls-past-vote_n_3923178.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster (September 18, 2013).Google Scholar
Crespi, Irving. 1988. Pre-election Polling: Sources of Accuracy and Error. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Issenberg, Sasha. 2012. “The Definitive Story of How President Obama Mined Voter Data to Win a Second Term.” MIT Technology Review. http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/509026/how-obamas-team-used-big-data-to-rally-voters/ (September 18, 2013).Google Scholar
Jackman, Simon. 2012. “Model-Based Poll Averaging: How Do We Do It?Huffington Post. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-jackman/modelbased-poll-averaging_b_1883525.html (September 18, 2013).Google Scholar
Lavrakas, Paul, Traugott, Michael, Blum, Michelene, Zukin, Cliff, and Dresser, Don. 2008. “The Experts Reply on the Poll Convergence Mystery.” Survey Practice. http://surveypractice.org/2008/12/19/the-experts-reply-convergence-mystery/ (October 6, 2009).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Linzer, Drew. 2012. “Pollsters May Be Herding.” VOTAMATIC. http://votamatic.org/pollsters-may-be-herding/ (September 18, 2013).Google Scholar
Marketing Research Association. 2013. “TCPA Restrictions on Using Autodialers to Call Cell Phones | Marketing Research Association.”http://www.marketingresearch.org/tcpa-restrictions-on-using-autodialers-to-call-cell-phones (September 17, 2013).Google Scholar
Martin, Elizabeth A., Traugott, Michael W., and Kennedy, Courtney. 2005. “A Review and Proposal for a New Measure of Poll Accuracy.” Public Opinion Quarterly 69 (3): 342–69.Google Scholar
Moore, David. 2008. “Evaluating the 2008 Pre-Election Polls – The Convergence Mystery.” Survey Practice. http://surveypractice.org/2008/11/25/a-question-for-the-experts-evaluating-the-2008-pre-election-polls-%E2%80%93-the-convergence-mystery/ (October 6, 2009).Google Scholar
Moore, Martha. 2012. “Election Aftermath: How’d Pollsters Like Nate Silver Do?USA Today. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/11/07/election-poll-results/1690553/ (September 17, 2013).Google Scholar
Mosteller, Frederick, Hyman, Herbert, McCarthy, Philip J., Marks, Eli S., and Truman, David B.. 1949. The Pre-Election Polls of 1948: Report to the Committee on Analysis of Pre-Election Polls and Forecasts. Social Science Research Council.Google Scholar
Newport, Frank. 2012. “Polling, Likely Voters, and the Law of the Commons.” Gallup.com. http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/2012/11/polling-likely-voters-and-law-of-commons.html (September 17, 2013).Google Scholar
Newport, Frank, and Moore, David. 2004. “Final Poll Shows Presidential Race to Be Dead Heat.” Gallup News Service. http://www.gallup.com/poll/13873/final-poll-shows-presidential-race-dead-heat.aspx (September 18, 2013).Google Scholar
Pew Research Center. 2012a. “Assessing the Representativeness of Public Opinion Surveys.” Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/ (September 17, 2013).Google Scholar
Pew Research Center. 2012b. “Obama Gains Edge in Campaign’s Final Days.” Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/04/obama-gains-edge-in-campaigns-final-days/ (September 18, 2013).Google Scholar
Schneider, William. 1992. “‘Poll of Polls’ Reflects Polling Consistency.” CNN News.Google Scholar
Silver, Nate. 2010. “Pollster Ratings V4.0: Methodology.” FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/pollster-ratings-v40-methodology.html (September 17, 2013).Google Scholar
Wilner, Elizabeth. 2013. “Kantar’s ‘Path to Public Opinion’.”http://us.kantar.com/public-affairs/politics/kantars-path-to-public-opinion/ (September 17, 2013).Google Scholar