Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-hgkh8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-28T14:08:54.260Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-Change Model

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 October 2008

Alan I. Abramowitz
Affiliation:
Emory University

Extract

At first glance, the outcome of the 2008 presidential election would appear to be very difficult to predict. For the first time in over 50 years, there will be no incumbent president or vice president in the race. Instead, the Republican Party, which has seen its popularity and electoral fortunes plummet since 2004, is pinning its hopes of retaining control of the White House on Arizona Senator John McCain—an individual who has frequently clashed with his own party's leadership. And McCain's Democratic opponent will be Illinois Senator Barack Obama, the first African American ever to receive a major-party presidential nomination.

Type
Symposium
Copyright
Copyright © The American Political Science Association 2008

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramowitz, Alan I. 1996. “Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure: Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election.” American Politics Quarterly 24: 434–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abramowitz, Alan I. 1988. “An Improved Model for Predicting the Outcomes of Presidential Elections.” PS: Political Science and Politics 21: 843–7.Google Scholar
Brody, Richard, and Sigelman, Lee. 1983. “Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections: An Update and Extension.” Public Opinion Quarterly 47: 325–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2000. “Polls and Votes: The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns.” In Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections, ed. Campbell, James E. and Garand, James C.. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E., and Garand, James C., eds. 2000. Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
Fair, Ray C. 1978. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President.” Review of Economics and Statistics 60: 159–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr. 2000. “Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections.” Public Choice 104: 149–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holbrook, Thomas M. 1996. Do Campaigns Matter? Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Rice, Tom W.. 1992. Forecasting Elections. Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press.Google Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut. 1996. “Of Time and Candidates: A Forecast for 1996.” American Politics Quarterly 24: 443–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wlezien, Christopher, and Erikson, Robert S.. 1996. “Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts.” American Politics Quarterly 24: 492505.CrossRefGoogle Scholar