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The terms of trade for commodities since the mid-19th century*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 March 2010

José Antonio Ocampo  and
Mariángela Parra-Lancourt
José Antonio Ocampo
Affiliation:
Columbia University, International Affairs Building, New York, NY 10027, jao2128@columbia.edu
Mariángela Parra-Lancourt
Affiliation:
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York, NY 10017, parra@un.org
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Abstract

This paper shows that there was an improvement in the barter terms of trade for non-fuel commodities vs. manufactures in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, followed by significant deterioration over the rest of the 20th century. However, the decline over most of the 20th century was neither continuous nor was it distributed evenly among different commodity groups. The far-reaching changes that the world economy underwent around 1920 and again around 1979 led to a stepwise deterioration which, over the long term, was reflected in roughly a halving of real commodity prices. Tropical agriculture fared the worst, whereas minerals had the best performance, with non-tropical agriculture in an intermediate situation. The increase experienced in the first decade of the 21st century may be the beginning of a long-term upward trend, but it is too soon to tell.

Resumen

Este ensayo muestra que hubo una mejoría en los términos de intercambio de trueque de los productos básicos a fines del siglo XIX y comienzos del XX, seguido por un deterioro significativo en el resto del siglo XX. Sin embargo, el deterioro durante la mayor parte del siglo XX no fue continuo ni se distribuyó en forma homogénea en diferentes grupos de productos. Los cambios de largo alcance que experimentó la economía mundial en torno a 1920 y nuevamente a 1979 se reflejaron en una caída escalonada, que a largo plazo redujo los precios reales de productos básicos aproximadamente a la mitad. La agricultura tropical experimentó el peor desempeño y la minería el mejor, con la agricultura no tropical en una situación intermedia. El incremento de los precios que se experimentó en la primera década del siglo XXI puede ser el inicio de una nueva fase de alza de larga duración, pero es demasiado temprano para saberlo.

Keywords

primary commodities, terms of trade, Prebisch–Singer hypothesis, structural breaksF12, 013, Q00Productos básicos, términos de intercambio, hipótesis de Prebisch–Singer, cambios estructurales
Type
Articles/Artículos
Information
Revista de Historia Economica - Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History , Volume 28 , Issue 1 , March 2010 , pp. 11 - 43
Copyright
Copyright © Instituto Figuerola de Historia y Ciencias Sociales, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid 2010

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