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Strategic Parliamentary Dissolution

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 November 2002

KAARE STRØM
Affiliation:
Professor of Political Science, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0521 (kstrom@ucsd.edu)
STEPHEN M. SWINDLE
Affiliation:
Assistant Professor of Political Science, Southeast Missouri State University, One University Plaza, MS 2920, Cape Girardeau, MO 63701(sswindle@semo.edu)

Abstract

An important agenda power in parliamentary democracies is the discretion over the dissolution of parliament. We argue that variation in constitutional rules and the political environment will systematically affect the frequency of early elections. We hypothesize that dissolution will be more frequent under single-party governments, when the head of state plays an insignificant role, when neither parliament nor the cabinet can inhibit dissolution, when minority governments are in power, when the head of state can dissolve unilaterally, and later in the constitutional term. Using standard logistic and Cox-proportional hazard techniques, we test these expectations in a pooled time-series setting against observations of most OECD parliamentary democracies for the years 1960–1995. We find that parliamentary dissolutions are more frequent earlier in the constitutional term, under minority governments, when the head of state plays an insignificant role, and when the parliament or the cabinet is not involved.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2002 by the American Political Science Association

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