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How common are common mental disorders? Evidence that lifetime prevalence rates are doubled by prospective versus retrospective ascertainment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 September 2009

T. E. Moffitt ,
A. Caspi ,
A. Taylor ,
J. Kokaua ,
B. J. Milne ,
G. Polanczyk  and
R. Poulton
T. E. Moffitt*
Affiliation:
Duke University, Durham, NC, USA Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, UK
A. Caspi
Affiliation:
Duke University, Durham, NC, USA Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, UK
A. Taylor
Affiliation:
UK Office of National Statistics, London, UK
J. Kokaua
Affiliation:
New Zealand Ministry of Health, New Zealand
B. J. Milne
Affiliation:
Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, UK
G. Polanczyk
Affiliation:
Duke University, Durham, NC, USA Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, UK
R. Poulton
Affiliation:
Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, University of Otago, New Zealand
*
*Address for correspondence: T. E. Moffitt, Suite 201 Grey House, 2020 West Main Street, Duke UniversityBox 104410, Durham, NC 27708, USA. (Email: t.moffitt@iop.kcl.ac.uk or terrie.moffitt@duke.edu)
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Abstract

Background

Most information about the lifetime prevalence of mental disorders comes from retrospective surveys, but how much these surveys have undercounted due to recall failure is unknown. We compared results from a prospective study with those from retrospective studies.

Method

The representative 1972–1973 Dunedin New Zealand birth cohort (n=1037) was followed to age 32 years with 96% retention, and compared to the national New Zealand Mental Health Survey (NZMHS) and two US National Comorbidity Surveys (NCS and NCS-R). Measures were research diagnoses of anxiety, depression, alcohol dependence and cannabis dependence from ages 18 to 32 years.

Results

The prevalence of lifetime disorder to age 32 was approximately doubled in prospective as compared to retrospective data for all four disorder types. Moreover, across disorders, prospective measurement yielded a mean past-year-to-lifetime ratio of 38% whereas retrospective measurement yielded higher mean past-year-to-lifetime ratios of 57% (NZMHS, NCS-R) and 65% (NCS).

Conclusions

Prospective longitudinal studies complement retrospective surveys by providing unique information about lifetime prevalence. The experience of at least one episode of DSM-defined disorder during a lifetime may be far more common in the population than previously thought. Research should ask what this means for etiological theory, construct validity of the DSM approach, public perception of stigma, estimates of the burden of disease and public health policy.

Keywords

Epidemiologylongitudinalprevalencepsychiatryretrospective
Type
Original Articles
Information
Psychological Medicine , Volume 40 , Issue 6 , June 2010 , pp. 899 - 909
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2009

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