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The Limits of Observation for Understanding Mass Violence

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 June 2015

Megan Price
Affiliation:
Director of Research Human Rights Data Analysis Groupmeganp@hrdag.org
Patrick Ball
Affiliation:
Executive Director Human Rights Data Analysis Grouppball@hrdag.org

Abstract

Quantitative analyses have the potential to contribute to transitional justice mechanisms, via empirical evidence supporting the memory of victims, allocating proportional responsibility among perpetrators, determining legal responsibility, and supporting historical memory and clarity. However, most data available in transitional justice settings are incomplete. Conducting quantitative analyses relying solely on what is observable and knowable leads to not only incomplete but often incorrect analytical results. This can harm rather than contribute to transitional justice mechanisms. This article outlines different types of data, the ways in which observable data, on their own, are insufficient for most quantitative analyses of interest, presents these limitations via a case study from Syria, and introduces statistical methods to overcome these limitations.

Résumé

Les analyses quantitatives peuvent contribuer aux mécanismes de justice transitionnelle corroborant le souvenir des victimes grâce à des preuves empiriques, en répartissant la responsabilité proportionnellement parmi les agresseurs, en attribuant la responsabilité légale et en appuyant la mémoire et la clarté historiques. Toutefois, la plupart des données disponibles en contexte de justice transitionnelle sont incomplètes. Les analyses quantitatives fondées uniquement sur les preuves susceptibles d’être observées ou connues peuvent aboutir à des résultats analytiques non seulement incomplets mais aussi incorrects. Ce phénomène peut faire plus de tort que de bien aux mécanismes de justice transitionnelle. Cet article explique comment les données susceptibles d’être observées sont insuffisantes à elles seules pour produire des analyses quantitatives dignes d’intérêt, illustre ces limites par une étude de cas en Syrie, et présente des méthodes statistiques susceptibles de surmonter ces problèmes.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Law and Society Association / Association Canadienne Droit et Société 2015 

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References

1 In their conclusion, the judges wrote, “[Patrick’s] expert report provides evidentiary support for the following reasons: a) It shows in statistical form that from April 1982 to July 1983, the army killed 5.5% of the indigenous people in the Ixil area. b) It confirms, in numerical form, what the victims said. c) It explains thoroughly the equation, analysis, and the procedure used to obtain the indicated result. d) The report establishes that the greatest number of indigenous deaths occurred during the period April 1982 to July 1983 when José Efraín Ríos Montt governed. e) The expert is a person with extensive experience in statistics.” Translation provided by Patrick Ball. A link to the complete opinion, in Spanish, is available via HRDAG’s website, https://hrdag.org/hat-tip-from-guatemala-judges/.

2 Hagan, John, Schoenfeld, Heather, and Palloni, Alberto, “The Science of Human Rights, War Crimes, and Humanitarian Emergencies,” Annual Review of Sociology 32 (2006): 329–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar Also see Helge Brunborg about the ways in which a demographer can contribute to a war crimes trial based on his experiences at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia in “Contribution of Statistical Analysis to the Investigations of the International Criminal Tribunals,” Statistical Journal of the United Nations (2001).

3 Patrick Ball, Wendy Betts, Fritz Scheuren, Jana Dudukovic, and Jana Asher, “Killings and Refugee Flow in Kosovo, March-June 1999 (A Report to ICTY),” published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the American Bar Association Central and East European Law Initiative (2002).

4 Hagan, Schoenfeld, and Palloni, “The Science of Human Rights,” 329–49. Note that Milošević died before his trial was complete, so there was no verdict.

5 For many examples, see Patrick Meier’s blog: http://irevolution.net/.

6 As just one example, see Mark Danner’s book The Massacre at El Mozote (New York: Vintage, 1994).

7 Susanne Karstedt proposes similar questions in her section on contextualizing extreme violence in “Contextualizing Mass Atrocity Crimes: Moving Toward a Relational Approach,” Annual Review of Law and Social Science, 9 (2013): 383–404.

8 Such as the data collected by Rwandan organization IBUKA in the Kibuye Prefecture as described in Philip Verwimp, “Machetes and Firearms: The Organization of Massacres in Rwanda,” Journal of Peace Research 43 (2006): 5–22; the Bosnian Book of the Dead as prepared by the Research and Documentation Center in Sarajevo; the Kosovo Memory Book database, as prepared by the Humanitarian Law Center, available at http://www.hlc-rdc.org/.

9 Verwimp, Philip, “Death and Survival During the 1994 Genocide in Rwanda,” Population Studies, 58 (2010): 233–45CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Romesh Silva and Patrick Ball, “The Profile of Human Rights Violations in Timor-Leste, 1974–1999: A Report by the Benetech Human Rights Data Analysis Group to the Commission on Reception, Truth and Reconciliation of Timor-Leste,” published in 2006 and available at https://hrdag.org/content/timorleste/Benetech-Report-to-CAVR.pdf, see particularly their discussion of the incompleteness of the cemetery records.

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12 The Households in Conflict Network provides an in-depth description of different types of surveys and proposes ways to improve existing questionnaires to better understand violent conflict; see Tilman Brück, Patricia Justino, Philip Verwimp, and Alexandra Avdeenko, “Identifying Conflict and Violence in Micro-Level Surveys,” HiCN Working Paper 79 (2010).

13 It is worth noting here the discussion in chapter 8 of the Human Security Report 2009/2010 on the limitations and challenges of calculating excess mortality, particularly when data on baseline mortality rates may be out of date or unavailable.

14 An illustrative and by no means complete or representative list of examples includes: Paul B Spiegel and Peter Salama, “War and Mortality in Kosovo, 1998–99: An Epidemiological Testimony,” The Lancet 355 (2000); D. de Walque and P. Verwimp, “The Demographic and Socio-Economic Distribution of Excess Mortality during the 1994 Genocide in Rwanda,” Journal of African Economies 0 (2010): 1–22; John Hagan and Joshua Kaiser, “A Separate Peace: Explaining War, Crime, Violence, and Security During and After the Surge in Iraq,” May 16, 2013; Damien de Walque, “Selective Mortality During the Khmer Rouge Period in Cambodia,” Population and Development Review 31 (2005): 351–68; John Hagan, Wenona Rymond-Richmond, and Patricia Parker, “The Criminology of Genocide: the Death and Rape of Darfur,” Criminology 43 (2005); and Silva and Ball, “The Profile of Human Rights Violations in Timor-Leste.”

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17 It is important to note that “bias” is not meant to connote judgement, but rather is used here in the statistical sense, meaning an empirical difference between what is observed and the complete picture of all events, were that knowable.

18 As an example, according to Vinck et al,’s 2011 study (available at http://www.peacebuildingdata.org/liberia/map), nationwide, only 2 percent of the population took part in the Liberian Truth Commission.

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25 Ibid.

26 See the Syria Regional Refugee Response Inter-Agency Information Sharing Portal at http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php.

27 Megan Price, Jeff Klingner, and Patrick Ball, “Preliminary Statistical Analysis of Documentation of Killings in the Syrian Arab Republic,” published by the Benetech Human Rights Program, commissioned by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (2013); Megan Price, Jeff Klingner, Anas Qtiesh, and Patrick Ball, “Full Updated Statistical Analysis of Documentation of Killings in the Syrian Arab Republic,” published by the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, commissioned by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (2013); Megan Price, Anita Gohdes, and Patrick Ball, “Updated Statistical Analysis of Documentation of Killings in the Syrian Arab Republic,” published by the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, commissioned by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (2014).

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44 It is worth noting that there are many different ways to compare names, and many of these ways are project specific. For example, different documentation efforts may record a different number of names (family name, father’s name) in a different order, so name comparisons may be made across different combinations of recorded names. Additionally, “Muhammad” (with various spellings) is a very common name in Syria, so comparisons may be calculated both including and excluding this name.

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46 See Price et al., “Full Updated Statistical Analysis of Documentation of Killings,” and Price, Gohdes, and Ball “Updated Statistical Analysis of Documentation of Killings,” for an in-depth description of record linkage for this case study, including the high level of agreement between different individuals reviewing records in different languages (English and Arabic).

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