Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-nwzlb Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-29T06:54:57.769Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Strongholds and Battlegrounds: Measuring Party Support Stability in Canada

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 September 2013

Marc André Bodet*
Affiliation:
Université Laval
*
Marc André Bodet, Département de science politique, Université Laval, Pavillon Charles-De-Koninck, Québec QC, G1V 0A6, marcandre.bodet@pol.ulaval.ca

Abstract

Abstract. Despite the nationalization of politics in established democracies, the study of local dynamics remains fundamental to our understanding of electoral politics, especially in plurality contests. In plurality systems, local competition indeed has important consequences for the distribution of seats in parliaments and cabinets. While a plethora of measures exists to assess electoral competitiveness, none adequately captures the dynamic nature of party support at the local level. Making use of the Canadian case as an illustration, we propose a new classification of electoral districts that aims at filling this gap. Districts are divided into two categories, strongholds and battlegrounds, depending on the successive performances of parties. We argue that such a classification should be utilized in addition to static measures of competitiveness, notably in the study of political participation.

Résumé. Malgré la nationalisation de la politique au sein des démocraties établies, l'étude des dynamiques locales demeure fondamentale pour bien comprendre la politique électorale, particulièrement dans les systèmes pluralitaires où la compétition locale a des conséquences importantes sur la distribution des sièges au parlement et au cabinet. Bien qu'il existe une panoplie de mesures de compétition électorale, aucune ne capture adéquatement la nature dynamique de l'appui aux partis à l'échelle locale. À l'aide du cas canadien, nous proposons une nouvelle classification des districts électoraux qui corrige cette lacune. Les districts sont divisés en deux catégories – bastions et champs de bataille – en fonction des performances successives des partis en présence. Nous suggérons que cette classification soit utilisée en plus d'autres mesures statiques, notamment dans l'étude de la participation électorale.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association 2013 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alvarez, Michael and Nagler, Jonathan. 2000. “A New Approach for Modelling Strategic Voting in Multiparty Elections.” British Journal of Political Science 30: 5775.Google Scholar
Berch, Neil. 1993. “Another Look at Closeness and Turnout: The Case of the 1979 and 1980 Canadian National Elections.” Political Research Quarterly 46: 421–32.Google Scholar
Blais, André. 2006. “What Affects Voter Turnout?Annual Review of Political Science 9: 111–25.Google Scholar
Blais, André and Dobrzynska, Agnieszka. 1998. “Turnout in Electoral Democracies.” European Journal of Political Research 33: 329–61.Google Scholar
Blais, André and Bodet, Marc André. 2006. “How Do Voters Form Expectations About the Chances of Winning the Election?Social Science Quarterly 87 (3): 477–93.Google Scholar
Blais, André and Lago, Ignacio. 2009. “A General Measure of District Competitiveness.” Electoral Studies 28 (1): 94100.Google Scholar
Blais, André, Gidengil, Elisabeth, Dobrzynska, Agnieszka, Nevitte, Neil and Nadeau, Richard. 2003. “Does the Local Candidate Matter? Candidate Effects in the Canadian Election of 2000.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 36 (3): 657–64.Google Scholar
Blais, André, Gidengil, Elisabeth, Nadeau, Richard and Nevitte, Neil. 2002. Anatomy of a Liberal Victory: Making Sense of the Vote in the 2000 Canadian Election. Peterborough: Broadview.Google Scholar
Blidook, Kelly. 2012. Constituency Influence in Parliament: Countering the Centre. Vancouver: UBC Press.Google Scholar
Carty, Kenneth R. and Eagles, Munroe. 2005. Politics is Local: National Politics at the Grassroots. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Carty, Kenneth R., Eagles, Munroe and Sayers, Anthony. 2003. “Candidates and Local Campaigns: Are There Just Four Canadian Types.” Party Politics 9 (5): 619–36.Google Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., Jenson, Jane, LeDuc, Lawrence and Pammett, Jon H.. 1979. Political Choice in Canada. Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary W. 1988. “Closeness and Turnout: A Methodological Note.” Journal of Politics 50 (3): 768–75.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary W. and Munger, Michael C.. 1989. “Closeness, Expenditures, and Turnout in the 1982 U.S. House Elections.” The American Journal of Political Science 83 (1): 217–31.Google Scholar
Cross, William. 2002. “The Increasing Importance of Region to Canadian Election Campaigns.” In Regionalism and Party Politics in Canada, ed. Young, Lisa and Archer, Keith. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Cunningham, Robert. 1971. “The Impact of the Local Candidate in Canadian Federal Elections.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 4: 287–90.Google Scholar
Docherty, David. 1997. Mr. Smith Goes to Ottawa. Vancouver: UBC Press.Google Scholar
Docherty, David and White, Stephen. 2004. “Parliamentary Democracy in Canada.” Parliamentary Affairs 57: 613–19.Google Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Dunleavy, Patrick and Boucek, Françoise. 2003. “Constructing the Number of PartiesParty Politics 9: 291315.Google Scholar
Endersby, James W., Galatas, Steven E. and Rackaway, Chapman B.. 2002. “Closeness Counts in Canada: Voter Participation in the 1993 and 1997 Federal Elections.” Journal of Politics 64 (2): 610–31.Google Scholar
Flanagan, Tom. 2007. Harper's Team. Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press.Google Scholar
Franklin, Mark. 2004. Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies since 1945. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Geys, Benny. 2006. “Explaining Voter Turnout: A Review of Aggregate-Level Research.” Electoral Studies 25: 637–63.Google Scholar
Goldenberg, Eddie. 2006. The Way It Works Inside Ottawa. Toronto: McLelland and Stewart.Google Scholar
Golosov, Grigoril V. 2010. “The Effective Number of Parties.” Party Politics 16 (2): 171–92.Google Scholar
Grofman, Bernard and Selb, Peter. 2009. “A Fully General Index of Political Competition.” Electoral Studies 28 (2): 291–96.Google Scholar
Irvine, William P. 1982. “Does the Candidate Make a Difference? The Macro-Politics and Micro-Politics of Getting Elected.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 15 (4): 755–82.Google Scholar
Jackman, Robert W. 1987. “Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in Industrial Democracies.” The American Political Science Review 81: 405–24.Google Scholar
Johnston, Richard. 1992. “Party Identification Measures in the Anglo-American Democracies: A National Survey Experiment.” The American Journal of Political Science 36 (2): 542–59.Google Scholar
Johnston, Richard, Matthews, John Scott and Bittner, Amanda. 2007. “Turnout and the Party System in Canada: 1988–2004.” Electoral Studies 26: 735–45.Google Scholar
Key, V. O. 1949. Southern Politics in the State and Nation. New York: Knopf.Google Scholar
Krashinsky, Michael and Milne, William J.. 1985. “Additional Evidence on the Effect of Incumbency in Canadian Elections.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 18 (1): 155–65.Google Scholar
Laakso, Markku and Taagepera, Rein. 1979. “Effective Number of Parties: A Measure with Application to West Europe.” Comparative Political Studies 12 (3): 327.Google Scholar
Leduc, Lawrence, Clarke, Harold C., Jenson, Jane and Pammett, Jon. 1984. “Partisan Instability in Canada: Evidence from a New Panel Study.” The American Political Science Review 78: 470–84.Google Scholar
Loewen, Peter, Koop, Royce and Fowler, James. 2009. “The Power to Propose: A Natural Experiment in Politics.” The Society for Political Methodology. Working paper series.Google Scholar
Mallory, J.R. 1954. Social Credit and the Federal Power in Canada. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.Google Scholar
Matsusaka, John G. and Palda, Filip. 1993. “The Downsian Voter Meets the Ecological Fallacy.” Public Choice 77: 855–78.Google Scholar
Matsusaka, John G. and Palda, Filip. 1999. “Voter Turnout: How Much Can We Explain?Public Choice 98 (3): 431–46.Google Scholar
Meisel, John. 1975. Working Papers on Canadian Politics. Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press.Google Scholar
Rae, Douglas W. 1971. The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Riker, William H. and Ordeshook, Peter C.. 1968. “A Theory of the Calculus of Voting.” The American Political Science Review 62 (1): 2542.Google Scholar
Savoie, Donald. 2000. Governing from the Centre. Toronto: Toronto University Press.Google Scholar
Sayers, Anthony M. 1999. Parties, Candidates and Constituency Campaigns in Canadian Elections. Vancouver: UBC Press.Google Scholar
Schwartz, Milfred A. 1974. Politics and Territory: The Sociology of Regional Persistence in Canada. Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press.Google Scholar
Selb, Peter. 2009. “A Deeper Look at the Proportionality–Turnout Nexus.” Comparative Political Studies 42 (4): 527–46.Google Scholar
Silberman, Jonathan and Durden, Garey. 1975. “The Rational Behavior Theory of Voter Participation: The Evidence from Congressional Elections.” Public Choice 23: 101–08.Google Scholar
Soroka, Stuart N., Cutler, Fred and Stolle, Dietlind. 2011. “Capturing Change (and Stability) in the 2011 Campaign.” Policy Options June: 7077.Google Scholar
Soroka, Stuart N., Penner, Erin and Blidook, Kelly. 2009. “Constituency Influence in Parliament.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 42 (3): 563–91.Google Scholar
Ward, Norman. 1947. “Parliamentary Representation in Canada.” The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science 13 (3): 447–64.Google Scholar
Young, Lisa and Archer, Keith. 2002. Regionalism and Party Politics in Canada. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar