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Between dominance and decline: status anxiety and great power rivalry

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 February 2013

Abstract

This article investigates the role of status considerations in the response of dominant powers to the rise of emergent states. Accordingly, the hypothesis explored is that dominant actors are prone to fear that they will lose their upper rank, and, due to this status anxiety, resist the efforts of emergent powers to match or surpass them. The article begins by explaining why political actors deem status important and puts forward a theory of status anxiety in world politics. The more pronounced is this anxiety across status dimensions (economic and military capabilities as well as prestige), the higher the likelihood of conflict. This argument is then tested against competing theories of dominant power behaviour in two cases: the relations between France and Britain from the 1740s to Napoleon and those between Britain and Germany from the 1880s to World War One.

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Copyright © British International Studies Association 2013 

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References

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13 For Lebow, hegemonic wars, meaning wars involving most of the great powers, are inadvertent (accidental) and are started by the intervention of either the dominant state or the rising power against a third party. However, wars originating in rivalries of status seem more likely to occur after an intervention from the rising power, which the dominant state then resists, because rising powers would not risk a serious clash imperilling their further ascension over a dominant state's intervention.

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28 Turner, ‘Social Identification’, pp. 528–9; Brown et al., ‘Social Comparison and Group Interest’, pp. 190–1. This tendency is so pronounced that individuals discriminate in favour of their group even in contexts when they have no information or interaction with other group members.

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31 It may even be the case that decision-makers are more concerned about their state's status than ordinary citizens because they constitute symbols of the state, because they are more status-sensitive due to their pursuit of public office, and because of their involvement in close interactions with foreign leaders against whom they measure their own status. Reinhard Wolf, ‘Recognition and Disrespect between Persons and Peoples’, in Lindemann and Ringmar (eds), Struggle for Recognition, p. 46.

32 Ibid., pp. 46–7.

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35 See for the link between soft power and status Volgy et al. (eds), Major Powers, p. 10.

36 On Iraq see Lebow, Cultural Theory, pp. 459–80; on soft power see Nye, Joseph, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (New York: Public Affairs, 2004)Google Scholar.

37 Hogg and Abrams, Social Identifications, pp. 21–3; Tajfel and Turner, ‘Social Identity Theory’, p. 16.

38 Hyman, Psychology of Status, pp. 5, 35–9, 91.

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40 Ibid., p. 99. Numerous quantitative studies link status inconsistency and war. Wallace, Michael, War and Rank among Nations (Lexington, DC: Heath and Company, 1970)Google Scholar; East, Maurice, ‘Status Discrepancy and Violence in the International System’, in Rosenau, Jameset al. (eds), The Analysis of International Politics (New York: Free Press, 1972), pp. 299319Google Scholar; Midlarsky, Manus, On War: Political Violence in the International System (New York: Free Press, 1975), chaps 5 and 6Google Scholar.

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42 Galtung, ‘Structural Theory’, pp. 96–7.

43 Tajfel and Turner, ‘Integrative Theory’, p. 45.

44 It is not capabilities, but their perception (correct or mistaken) that affects decision-making. Wohlforth, William, ‘The Perception of Power: Russia in the pre-1914 Balance’, World Politics, 39 (April 1987), pp. 353–81CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

45 Prestige is not identical to status. Status refers to social rank, while prestige is defined as success in peace and war. Prestige is therefore one of the dimensions, in addition to military or economic capabilities, that confer status to a state internationally.

46 Gilpin, War and Change, pp. 32–3.

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48 This operationalisation of status discrepancies is DISTINCT from the models of Midlarsky, Gilpin, and Volgy, which ultimately are reducible to two dimensions: capability (a sum of various resources) and prestige (usually measured by the number of accredited diplomatic missions in a state's capital). Here it should be pointed out that Volgy and contributors actually argue that multiple dimensions – economic and military capabilities, foreign policy activities, and status attribution – confer status internationally. But when operationalising status, they conflate capabilities and activities in one category, which they then contrast with status attribution (the equivalent of prestige,) de facto reaffirming the familiar two dimensional model. Thus, for these authors, status inconsistency leads to both status underachievers, whose prestige is less than their capabilities, and to status overachievers, whose prestige exceeds their capabilities. By contrast, in this article's model, which follows Lenski and Galtung, status discrepancies occur when economic, military capabilities, and prestige, understood as success in peace and war, are misaligned. Hence, in this latter model, there are more than just two scenarios of possible discrepancies. Volgy et al., (eds), Major Powers, pp. 7, 10–2, 16–20; Gilpin, War and Change, p. 33; Midlarsky, On War, pp. 94–7, 116–7.

49 Wohlforth, ‘Unipolarity, Status, Great Power War’, p. 39, fn. 25.

50 Lebow, Why Nations Fight, pp. 94–5.

51 It is conceivable that a state may resent simultaneously status inconsistency AND status anxiety, which makes it important to tell these two drives apart since they lead to different policies toward different actors. Germany before World War I was in the peculiar situation of seeking advancement due to status inconsistency because of the rise of its capabilities compared to Britain's; but, at the same time, may have also been exhibiting status anxiety by being worried of falling behind a rising Russia. Accordingly, Germany was conciliatory towards Britain, engaging for all intents and purposes in a détente from 1912 onwards, and belligerent towards Russia. See for a similar argument in which Germany's ‘sudden rise turned to decline’, Doran, Systems in Crisis, pp. 79–89, 121–40; Charles Doran, ‘World War I From the Perspective of Power Cycle Theory’, in Lindemann and Ringmar (eds) International Politics of Recognition, pp. 119–21.

52 Since equality implies loss of status, it will also be resisted by the dominant power. For an illustration of this reluctance to accept equality see Leffler, Melvin, A Preponderance of Power: National Security, the Truman Administration, and the Cold War (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1992)Google Scholar.

53 See for the application of prospect theory to standing Lebow, Cultural Theory, p. 31, 537–9; Taliaferro, Jeffrey, Balancing Risks: Great Power Intervention in the Periphery (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2004)Google Scholar.

54 Tajfel and Turner, ‘Social Identity Theory’, pp. 16–7, 21.

55 Festinger, Leon, ‘A Theory of Social Comparison Processes’, Human Relations, 7:2 (1954), pp. 117–40, 121–3, 135–6CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Tajfel and Turner, ‘Integrative Theory’, pp. 35–8.

56 For a similar point of view see Thompson, William, ‘The Evolution of a Great Power Rivalry: The Anglo-American Case’, in Thompson, William (ed.), Great Power Rivalries (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1999), pp. 201–21Google Scholar.

57 Perkins, Bradford, The Great Rapprochement: England and the United States, 1895–1914 (New York: Atheneum, 1968), pp. 89Google Scholar; Bagwell, Philip and Mingway, G. E., Britain and America, 1850–1939: A Study of Economic Change (New York: Praeger, 1970), pp. 153–6, 158–64Google Scholar; Kennedy, Paul, The Rise and Fall of Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Contest From 1500 to 2000 (New York: Random House, 1987), pp. 243–4Google Scholar.

58 Ibid., pp. 244–5; Perkins, Great Rapprochement, pp. 122–6, chap. 7.

59 Bourne, Kenneth, Britain and the Balance of Power in North America, 1815–1908 (London: Longmans, 1967), pp. 339, 347–8Google Scholar; Perkins, Great Rapprochement, pp. 14–5, chap. 7.

60 Perkins, Great Rapprochement, pp. 121–2.

61 Friedberg, Aaron, Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline, 1895–1905 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988), p. 153Google Scholar; Kennedy, Great Powers, p. 203.

62 Perkins, Great Rapprochement, pp. 184–5.

63 Bourne, Britain and the Balance of Power, pp. 342–3. As Bourne writes: ‘the growth of American power in the late nineteenth century… was at first by no means welcome to the policy-makers in Britain; rather its existence had to be accepted in a world where crucial dangers loomed elsewhere’.

64 Ibid., pp. 362, 385; Friedberg, Weary Titan, pp. 185–8.

65 For the point that economic rivalry is not sufficient for militarised rivalry to emerge, see Jack Levy and Salvatore Ali, ‘From Commercial Competition to Strategic Rivalry to War: The Evolution of the Anglo-Dutch Rivalry, 1609–52’, in Diehl (ed), Dynamics, pp. 29–63.

66 Gilpin, War and Change, pp. 123–5, 162–5.

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73 Dziembowski, Edmond, Un Nouveau Patriotisme Français, 1750–1770 (Oxford: Voltaire Foundation, 1998), pp. 224–32, also see pp. 83–6; 232–3; 238–40Google Scholar.

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79 Ibid., p. 214.

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82 Chaussinand-Nogaret, Guy, Choiseul: Naissance de la Gauche (Paris: Perrin, 1998), p. 63CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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84 Ibid., pp. 158, 161.

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86 Schroeder, Transformation, pp. 113–16.

87 Ibid., pp. 238–41; Napoleon, , Pensées Politiques et Sociales (Paris: Flammarion, 1969), pp. 313–20Google Scholar. Napoleon entertained a lifelong Anglophobia arguing that Britain should have ended up as an appendage to France, not much different from Corsica.

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90 Black, From Louis XIV to Napoleon, pp. 91–5, 124.

91 Ibid., pp. 27–32; Tombs, That Sweet Enemy, pp. 110–14.

92 Ibid., pp. 199–209, 254–62; Pluchon, Histoire, chap. 5; Dorn, Competition, pp. 102–21.

93 Jeremy Black, ‘Enduring Rivalries: Britain and France’, in Thompson (ed.), Great Power Rivalries, pp. 254–68, 264.

94 McKay and Scott, Rise of the Great Powers, pp. 101–31; Black, From Louis XIV to Napoleon, pp. 70–84.

95 Schroeder, Transformation, pp. 174–6, 296–8; Black, From Louis XIV to Napoleon, p. 180.

96 Blanning, Pursuit of Glory, pp. 109–11.

97 Dorn, Competition, p. 117. Also see fn. 79.

98 Black, From Louis XIV to Napoleon, pp. 120–1.

99 Joseph Chamberlain, ‘Opening Speech at Colonial Conference, London, June 30, 1902’ quoted in Amery, Julian, The Life of Joseph Chamberlain, vol. 5 (London: Macmillan, 1969), p. 31Google Scholar.

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101 Kennedy, Great Powers, p. 231. This argument contradicts Copeland, for whom World War One was a preventive war initiated by the dominant power: Germany. Copeland, Origins, chaps 3–4.

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106 This reaction was the notorious war council of 8 December 1912 in which the German army leaders advocated war ‘the sooner, the better’. The deliberations included an attack against Britain, but Tirpitz argued that the navy was not yet ready. However, opposition from Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg led to the projected war on Britain to be abandoned on favour of rapprochement. Röhl, John, The Kaiser and His Court (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994), chap. 7CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Padfield, Peter, The Great Naval Race: The Anglo-German Naval Rivalry, 1900–1914 (New York: David McKay Company, 1974), pp. 276312Google Scholar; Marder, Anthony, From the Dreadnought to Scapa Flow, vol. I (London: Oxford University Press, 1961), chap. 11Google Scholar.

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118 Steiner and Neilson, Britain, pp. 63–72.

119 Friedberg, Weary Titan, p. 153.

120 Padfield, Great Race, p. 153.

121 Kennedy, Antagonism, pp. 163–6; Marder, Dreadnought, pp. 159–71.

122 Kemp, P. K., The Papers of Admiral Sir John Fisher, vol. 1 (London: The Navy Records Society, 1960), pp. 1819Google Scholar; Padfield, Great Race, pp. 184, 182–5.

123 Kennedy, Antagonism, p. 416.

124 Steinberg, Jonathan, ‘The German Background to Anglo-German Relations, 1905–1914’, in Hinsley, F. H. (ed.), British Foreign Policy under Sir Edward Grey (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1977), p. 213Google Scholar.

125 As Gray argues, it is not easy to draw a distinction between a future security threat from Germany, even though a present one was ruled out, and the threat to the British rank as number one naval power, for which there was ‘eloquent proof’. Gray, Colin, ‘The Urge to Compete: Rationales for Arms Racing’, World Politics, 26 (January 1974), pp. 207–33, 224, esp. fn. 42CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

126 ‘Memorandum by Mr. Crowe’, in Gooch and Temperley (eds), British Documents VI, pp. 534–5.

127 Anderson, Eugene, The First Moroccan Crisis (Chicago: University of Chicago, 1930)Google Scholar; Barlow, Agadir.

128 Albertini, Origins, pp. 632–3.

129 Steiner and Neilson, Britain, pp. 72–5; Kennedy, Antagonism.

130 Woodruff, William, Impact of Western Man: A Study of Europe's Role in the World Economy, 1750–1960 (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1967), pp. 284, 288–9Google Scholar.

131 Germany wanted improved relations with Russia and British support against France, while Britain wanted Germany to help it against Russia. Kennedy, Antagonism, pp. 388–9.

132 Marder, Dreadnought, pp. 348, 350, 356, 345–58.

133 Lynn-Jones, Sean, ‘Détente and Deterrence: Anglo-German Relations, 1911–1914’, International Security 11 (Fall 1986), pp. 121–50CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

134 Paul Kennedy, ‘Great Britain Before 1914’, in May (ed.), Knowing One's Enemies, p. 173.

135 Ibid., pp. 194–5.

136 See for this argument Levy, Jack, ‘What Do Great Powers Balance Against?’, in Paul, T. V., Wirtz, James, and Fortmann, Michel, Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2004), pp. 43–4Google Scholar.

137 ‘Memorandum by Lord Sanderson’, in Gooch and Temperley, British Documents, III, p. 430; also see Padfield, Naval Race, pp. 308–9.

138 I am grateful to the anonymous reviewers for this suggestion.

139 See inter alia Larson and Shevchenko, ‘Status Seekers’; Volgy et al. (eds), Major Powers.