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Does development reduce fatalities from natural disasters? New evidence for floods

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 August 2013

Susana Ferreira ,
Kirk Hamilton  and
Jeffrey R. Vincent
Susana Ferreira
Affiliation:
University of Georgia, 313 Conner Hall, Athens, GA 30602, USA. Phone: +1 706 542 0086. Fax: +1 706 542 0739. Email: sferreir@uga.edu
Kirk Hamilton
Affiliation:
The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA. Email: Khamilton@worldbank.org
Jeffrey R. Vincent
Affiliation:
Duke University, Durham, NC, USA. Email: jeff.vincent@duke.edu
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Abstract

We analyze the impact of development on flood fatalities using a new data set of 2,171 large floods in 92 countries between 1985 and 2008. Our results challenge the conventional wisdom that development results in fewer fatalities during natural disasters. Results indicating that higher income and better governance reduce fatalities during flood events do not hold up when unobserved country heterogeneity and within-country correlation of standard errors are taken into account. We find that income does have a significant, indirect effect on flood fatalities by affecting flood frequency and flood magnitude, but this effect is nonmonotonic, with net reductions in fatalities occurring only in lower income countries. We find little evidence that improved governance affects flood fatalities either directly or indirectly.

Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 18 , Issue 6 , December 2013 , pp. 649 - 679
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013 

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