Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-ws8qp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-27T19:28:43.264Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Urban and rural voting patterns in Senegal: the spatial aspects of incumbency, c. 1978–2012*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 November 2013

Dominika Koter*
Affiliation:
Colgate University, Department of Political Science, 13 Oak Drive, Hamilton, NY 13346, USA

Abstract

One of the most striking voting patterns in many African elections is the marked difference between urban and rural voters in their willingness to support the incumbent. In many countries, incumbents receive their worst electoral scores in the cities, whereas the countryside votes overwhelmingly for them. This pattern is puzzling because there is no evidence that rural areas benefit more from government policies. On the contrary, most governments in Africa exhibit a pro-urban policy bias. Why then do rural voters support incumbents at higher rates? Using evidence from original interviews with politicians in Senegal, coupled with media coverage from several elections, I contend that incumbents enjoy higher success in rural vis-à-vis urban areas because rural voters are more susceptible to clientelism. Tight social structure, cohesion and the prominent role of local patrons facilitate the acquisition of entire blocs of rural voters for the incumbent. These findings are independent of ethnic, religious or party identity.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Fieldwork conducted by the author in Senegal was generously supported by the Fulbright-Hays Doctoral Dissertation Research Award, the Macmillan Center at Yale University and the Research Council at Colgate University. The author thanks Nathaniel Cogly, Jeff Conroy-Krutz, Keith Darden, William Foltz, Ellen Lust, Susan Stokes, the editors and two anonymous reviewers, and the participants of the Comparative Politics Workshop at Yale University for helpful comments on previous drafts.

References

REFERENCES

Afrobarometer Survey. Round 2 (2003), Round 3 (2005) and Round 4 (2008). <afrobarometer.org>>Google Scholar
Agence de Presse Sénégalaise (APS). 2012. ‘Résultats provisoires du premier tour de l'élection présidentielle sénégalaise’. Dakar, Senegal.Google Scholar
Agence National de la Statistique et de Démographie (ANSD). 2002. ‘Troisième Recensement Général de la Population et de l'Habitat’. Dakar, Senegal. www.ansd.sn/publications/rapports_enquetes…/RGPH3_RAP_NAT.pdfGoogle Scholar
Anderson, D. & Maupeu, H.. 2003. ‘Kenya, la succession de Moi’, Politique Africaine 90: 516.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bates, R. 1981. Markets and States in Tropical Africa: the political basis of agricultural policies. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Beck, L. 1997. ‘Senegal's “patrimonial democrats”: incremental reform and the obstacles to the consolidation of democracy’, Canadian Journal of African Studies 31, 1: 131.Google Scholar
Beck, L. 2001. ‘Reining in the Marabouts? Democratization and local governance in Senegal’, African Affairs 100: 601–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, L. 2008. Brokering Democracy in Africa: the rise of clientelist democracy in Senegal. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bezemer, D. & Headey, D.. 2008. ‘Agriculture, development, and urban bias’, World Development 36, 8: 1342–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boone, C. 2003. Political Topographies of the African State: territorial authority and institutional choice. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conroy- Krutz, J. 2009. ‘Incumbent advantage and urban-rural geography in sub-Saharan Africa’, ms.Google Scholar
Conseil Constitutionnel du Sénégal. ‘Résultats définitifs de l'élection présidentielle 2007’.Google Scholar
Cour Constitutionnelle. 2000. ‘Résultats du premier tour de l'élection présidentielle sénégalaise’. Dakar, Senegal.Google Scholar
Cruise O'Brien, D. 1971. The Mourides of Senegal. Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
Diop, A.B. 2002. Logiques sociales et démocratie électorale au Sénégal. Essai de reconstruction et d'interprétation d'une trajectoire de crise: l'exemple de Fouta Toro (1983–2001). Ph.D. diss., Insitut d'Etudes Politiques de Bordeaux, Université Montesquieu – Bordeaux IV.Google Scholar
Diop, M-C., Diouf, M. & Diaw, A.. 2000. ‘Le Baobab a été déracine. L'alternance au Sénégal’, Politique Africaine 78: 157–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fatton, R. 1986. ‘Clientelism and patronage in Senegal’, African Studies Review 29, 4: 6178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fatton, R. 1987. Making of a Liberal Democracy: Senegal's passive revolution, 1975–1985. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Ferree, K. 2004. ‘The microfoundations of ethnic voting: evidence from South Africa’, Afrobarometer Working Paper 40.Google Scholar
Foltz, W. 1969. ‘Social structure and political behavior of Senegalese elites’, Behavior Science Notes, 4: 145–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
GERCOP. 1999. ‘Etude sur le comportement électoral dans les régions de Thiès et Diourbel’. Saint-Louis, Senegal: GERCOP.Google Scholar
Harding, R. 2010. ‘Urban–rural differences in incumbent support across Africa’, Afrobarometer Working Paper 120.Google Scholar
Harsch, E. 2003. ‘Senegal: to fight hunger, modernize farming’, Africa Recovery 17: 1.Google Scholar
Herbst, J. 2000. States and Power in Africa: comparative lessons in authority and control. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Herbst, J. 2001. ‘Political liberalization in Africa after ten years’, Comparative Politics 33, 3: 357–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jeffries, R. 1998. ‘The Ghanaian elections of 1996: towards the consolidation of democracy?’, African Affairs 97, 387: 189208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaspin, D. 1995. ‘The politics of ethnicity in Malawi's democratic transition’, Journal of Modern African Studies 33, 4: 595620.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laitin, D. 1986. Hegemony and Culture: politics and religious change among the Yoruba. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Lemarchand, R. 1972. ‘Political clientelism and ethnicity in tropical africa: competing solidarities in nation-building’, American Political Science Review 66, 1: 6890.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lindberg, S. 2003. ‘It's our time to “chop”: do elections in Africa feed neo-patrimonialism rather than counteract it?’, Democratization 10, 2: 121–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lipton, M. 1977. Why Poor People Stay Poor: urban bias in world development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Lipton, M. 1993. ‘Urban bias: of consequences, classes and causality’, Journal of Development Studies 29, 4: 229–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Magaloni, B. 2006. Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parson, J. 1992. ‘Liberal democracy, the liberal state and the 1989 general elections in Botswana’, in Stedman, S., ed. Botswana: the political economy of democratic development. Boulder, CO: Lynn Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Patterson, A. 2002. ‘The impact of Senegal's decentralization on women in local governance’, Canadian Journal of African Studies 36, 3: 490529.Google Scholar
Posner, D. 2005. Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Posner, D. & Simon, D.. 2002. ‘Economic conditions and incumbent support in Africa's new democracies: evidence from Zambia’, Comparative Political Studies 35, 3: 313–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Projection de population du Sénégal; Recensement de 2002.Google Scholar
Resnick, D. 2011. ‘In the shadow of the city: Africa's urban poor in opposition strongholds’, Journal of Modern African Studies 49, 1: 141–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sahn, D. & Stifel, D.. 2003. ‘Urban-rural inequality in living standards in Africa’, Journal of African Economies 12, 4: 564–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sandbrook, R. 1996. ‘Transitions without consolidation: democratization in six African cases’, Third World Quarterly 17, 1: 6987.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Savané, V. & Sarr, B.. 2012. Y'en a Marre: Radioscopie d'une Jeunesse Insurgée au Sénégal. Paris: L'Harmattan.Google Scholar
Schumacher, E. 1975. Politics, Bureaucracy, and Rural Development in Senegal. Berkeley & Los Angeles, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Stokes, S. 2007. ‘Political Clientelism’, in Boix, C. & Stokes, S., eds. Handbook of Comparative Politics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Sy, A. 2012. Le 23 Juin au Sénégal (Ou la Souveraineté Reconquise). Paris: L'Harmattan.Google Scholar
Sy, A. 2013. Les Elections Présidentielles au Sénégal de mars 2012. Paris: L'Harmattan.Google Scholar
van de Walle, N. 2003. ‘Presidentialism and Clientelism in Africa's Emerging Party Systems’, Journal of Modern African Studies 41, 2: 297321.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Walraven, K. 2002. ‘The end of an era: the Ghanaian elections of December 2000’, Journal of Contemporary African Studies 20, 2: 183202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vicente, P. & Wantchekon, L.. 2009. ‘Clientelism and vote buying: lessons from field experiments in African elections’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy 25, 2: 292305.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Villalón, L. 1995. Islamic Society and State Power in Senegal. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Young, C. & Kante, B.. 1991. ‘Governance, democracy, and the 1988 Senegalese elections’, in Hyden, G. & Bratton, M., eds. Governance and Politics in Africa. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar

Newspapers

Agence France Presse, 28.12.2008. Paris, France.

Jeune Afrique. 4–10.2.2007; 8.3.2012. Paris, France.

Le Quotidien 16. 9·2011; 2.3.2012. Dakar, Senegal.

Le Soleil, 4–5.2.2012; 15.2.2012; 1.3.2012; 6.3.2012; 9.3.2012; 13.3.2012. Dakar, Senegal.

Sud Quotidien, 2.2.2012; 3.2.2012; 8.2.2012; 21.2.2012; 22.2.2012; 12.3.2012. Dakar, Senegal.

Walfadjri, 2.2.2012; 5.2.2012. Dakar, Senegal.

Interviews

Abourizk, Samir. Leader of Democratie Citoyenne, 16.10.2006.

Bâ, Abbas. PVD politician. 26.2.2007.

Camara, Mame Less. Lecturer at CESTI School of Journalism. 17.10.2006.

Diallo, Opa. Member of Parliament (LD/MPT). 20.11.2006.

Diakhaté, Moustapha. PDS politician. 31.1.2007.

Dieng, Ousman Tanor. Presidential Candidate (PS). 14.4.2007.

Diop, Mbaye-Jacques. President of Conseil de la Republique, 01.3.2007.

Diouf, Madior, Secretary General of RND. 01.3.2007.

Diouf, Madieyna. MP (AFP). 14.4.2007.

Gaye, Babacar. MP (PDS), 3rd Vice-President of the National Assembly. 29.11.2006 and 29.5.2013.

Gueye, Sémou Pathé. Politician (PIT). 1.3.2007 and 3.3.2007.

Kanté, Babacar. Vice President of the Constitutional Council, 2.2.2007.

Sall, Baidy. Permanent Adjunct Secretary (AJ /Pads), 14.2.2007.