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Crises and Crashes: Argentina 1825-2002*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 August 2013

Ana María Cerro  and
Osvaldo Meloni
Ana María Cerro
Affiliation:
Professor of Economics, Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, Este 135, (4107) Yerba Buena, Provincia de Tucumán, Argentina. acerro@herrera.unt.edu.ar and omeloni@herrera.unt.edu.ar
Osvaldo Meloni
Affiliation:
Professor of Economics, Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, Este 135, (4107) Yerba Buena, Provincia de Tucumán, Argentina. acerro@herrera.unt.edu.ar and omeloni@herrera.unt.edu.ar
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Abstract

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, it identifies and categorizes the currency crises suffered by Argentina from 1825 to 2002. Second, it looks for regularities in the behaviour of key macroeconomic variables in the neighbourhood of crises by means of graphic analysis, non-parametric and econometric techniques. We found that expansions in public expenditures as well as increases in the debt to GDP ratio and falls in the rate of growth of bank deposits contribute to spur the probability of crisis. Unfavourable external conditions, jointly with domestic imbalances, help to explain very deep crises or crashes.

Resumen

Este trabajo tiene un doble objetivo. En primer lugar identifica y categoriza las crisis sufridas por Argentina desde 1825 hasta 2002. Con ese insumo, intenta encontrar regularidades en el comportamiento de variables macroeconómicas claves en el vecindario de las crisis mediante análisis gráfico y métodos no paramétricos y paramétricos. Encontramos que las expansiones en el gasto público así como los aumentos en el ratio de deuda a PIB y las caídas en la tasa de crecimiento de los depósitos bancarios aumentan las probabilidades de crisis. Los empeoramientos en las condiciones externas, conjuntamente con los desajustes domésticos, contribuyen a explicar las crisis muy profundas.

Keywords

Argentinacurrency crisesspeculative attacksE32N26ArgentinaCrisis de MonedaAtaques Especulativos
Type
Articles/Artículos
Information
Revista de Historia Economica - Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History , Volume 31 , Issue 2 , September 2013 , pp. 219 - 252
Copyright
Copyright © Instituto Figuerola de Historia y Ciencias Sociales, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid 2013 

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Footnotes

*

The authors thank Manuel Luis Cordomí, Víctor Elías, Saúl Lizondo, José Pineda, two anonymous referees of this journal and participants of the 14th IEA World Congress, the XXXVIII Annual Meeting of the Argentine Economic Association and the Workshop at the University of Tucumán for valuable comments and suggestions to earlier versions of this paper and Juan Dip, Santiago Ruiz Nicolini and Sergio Sansón for their research assistance. All remaining errors are ours. They gratefully acknowledge the support of the Consejo de Investigaciones de la Universidad Nacional de Tucumán (CIUNT) Grants 26/F 403 and 26/F408 and the Agencia de Promoción Científica y Tecnológica, Project 21226-PICT 2004. The views expressed herein are those of the authors.

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