Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-2pzkn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-08T22:42:25.978Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Religion, Rational Political Theory, and the 2008 Presidential Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 March 2013

Jungyun Gill  and
James DeFronzo
Jungyun Gill*
Affiliation:
Stonehill College
James DeFronzo*
Affiliation:
University of Connecticut
*
Address correspondence and reprint requests to: Jungyun Gill, Sociology and Criminology Department, Stonehill College, 320 Washington Street, Easton, MA 02357. E-mail: jgill@stonehill.edu
James DeFronzo, University of Connecticut. E-mail: james.defronzo@uconn.edu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

States of the United States differ significantly in terms of politically salient religious culture. But prior to the 2008 presidential election several studies inspired by rational political theory that found that during war time voting districts with high rates of military fatalities were more likely to vote against incumbent candidates and for anti-war candidates failed to control for variation in religious culture. In the present study, multivariate analyses that controlled for local differences in religious culture found that Iraq War military fatalities had an overall positive effect on the difference in the percent of the vote received in the 50 states and the District of Columbia by the anti-war Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in the 2008 election and the pre-war Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore in the 2000 election. Tests for interaction, however, also found that the magnitude and ultimately the direction of this effect were conditioned by religious culture. In states with very high percentages of evangelical Protestants, the military fatality rate actually appeared to have a negative effect.

Type
Articles
Information
Politics and Religion , Volume 6 , Issue 2 , June 2013 , pp. 303 - 316
Copyright
Copyright © Religion and Politics Section of the American Political Science Association 2013 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Althaus, Scott L., Bramlett, Brittany H., and Gimpel, James G.. 2012. “When War Hits Home: The Geography of Military Losses and Support for War in Time and Space.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 56:382–412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brooks, C., and Manza, J.. 2004. “A Great Divide? Religion and Political Change in U.S. National Elections, 1972–2000.” Sociological Quarterly 45:421–450.Google Scholar
Carson, J.L., Jenkins, J.A., Rhode, D.A.,, and Souva, M.A.. 2001. “The Impact of National Tides and District Level Effects on Electoral Outcomes: The U.S. Congressional Elections of 1862–63.” American Journal of Political Science 45:887–898.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
CNN Election Center. 2008. “Election Center 2008: State Election Results.” www.CNN.com/ELECTION/2008/results/state/ (Accessed on October 18, 2009).Google Scholar
CNNMoney.com. 2008. “State Unemployment, October 2008.” http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/state_unemployment/ (Accessed on October 18, 2009).Google Scholar
Duhigg, Charles. 2004. “Evangelicals Flock Into Iraq on a Mission of Faith.” http://articles.latimes.com/print/2004/mar/18/world/fg-missionary18 (Accessed on January 23, 2012).Google Scholar
Gartner, S.S. 2008a. “The Multiple Effects of Casualties on Public Support for War: An Experimental Approach.” American Political Science Review 102:95–106.Google Scholar
Gartner, S.S. 2008b. “Ties to the Dead: Connections to Iraq War and 9/11 Casualties and Disapproval of the President.” American Sociological Review 73:690–695.Google Scholar
Gartner, S.S., and Segura, G.M.. 2008. “All Politics are Still Local: The Iraq War and the 2006 Midterm Elections.” PS: Political Science and Politics 41:95–100.Google Scholar
Gartner, S.S., Segura, G.M., and Barratt, B.A.. 2003. “War Casualties, Policy Positions, and the Fate of Legislators.” Political Research Quarterly 53:467–477.Google Scholar
Glenmary Research Center. 2002. Religious Congregations and Membership in the United State 2000. Nashville, TN: Glennmary Research Center.Google Scholar
Guth, J.L., Kellstedt, L.A., Smidt, C.E., and Green, J.C.. 2004. “Religious Influences in the 2004 Presidential Election.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 36:223–242.Google Scholar
Hayes, Andrew F., and Myers, Teresa A.. 2009. Testing the “Proximate Casualties Hypothesis: Local Troop Loss, Attention to News, and Support for Military Intervention.” Mass Communication and Society 12:379–402.Google Scholar
Kam, Cindy D., and Franzese, Robert J.. 2007. Modeling and Interpreting Interactive Hypotheses in Regression Analysis. Ann Arbor, MI: The University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Karol, D., and Miguel, E.. 2007. “The Electoral Cost of War: Iraq Casualties and the 2004 Presidential Election.” The Journal of Politics 69:633–648.Google Scholar
Manza, J., and Brooks, C.. 1997. “The Religious Factor in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1960–1992.” American Journal of Sociology 103:38–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marsh, Charles. 2006. “Wayward Christian Soldiers.” New York Times, January 20. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/20/opinion/20marsh.html (Accessed on January 23, 2012)Google Scholar
Pew Research Center. 2003. “Different Faiths, Different Messages.” http://www.pewforum.org/uploadedfiles/Topics/Issues/Politics_and_Elections/iraq-war.pdf (Accessed January 23, 2012).Google Scholar
Smidt, C., and Kellstedt, P.. 1992. “Evangelicals in the Post-Reagan Era: An Analysis of Evangelical Voters in the 1988 Presidential Election.” Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 31:330–338.Google Scholar
U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2000. http://www.census.gov/acs/www/SBasics/index.htmGoogle Scholar
Voeten, E., and Brewer, P.R.. 2006. “Public Opinion, the War in Iraq, and Presidential Accountability.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 50:809–830.CrossRefGoogle Scholar