a1 University of Granada, Campus Fuentenueva, 18071, Granada, Spain, E-mail: email@example.com
a2 Nuffield College, Oxford OX1 1NF, U.K., E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
a3 Cass Business School, City University London, 106 Bunhill Row, London EC1Y 8TZ, U.K., E-mail: Jens.Nielsen.email@example.com
a4 Cass Business School, City University London, E-Mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
In this paper we develop a full stochastic cash flow model of outstanding liabilities for the model developed in Verrall, Nielsen and Jessen (2010). This model is based on the simple triangular data available in most non-life insurance companies. By using more data, it is expected that the method will have less volatility than the celebrated chain ladder method. Eventually, our method will lead to lower solvency requirements for those insurance companies that decide to collect counts data and replace their conventional chain ladder method.