Epidemiology and Infection

Original Papers

Pertussis

Modelling pertussis transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of an adolescent booster in Argentina

G. FABRICIUSa1 c1, P. E. BERGEROa1, M. E. ORMAZABALa2, A. L. MALTZa3 and D. F. HOZBORa2

a1 Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, La Plata, Argentina

a2 Laboratorio VacSal, Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular, Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, CCT-La Plata, CONICET, La Plata, Argentina

a3 Departamento de Matemática, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, La Plata, Argentina

SUMMARY

Due to the current epidemiological situation of pertussis, several countries have implemented vaccination strategies that include a booster dose for adolescents. Since there is still no evidence showing that the adolescent booster has a positive effect on the most vulnerable group represented by infants, it is difficult to universalize the recommendation to include such reinforcement. In this work we present an age-structured compartmental deterministic model that considers the outstanding epidemiological features of the disease in order to assess the impact of the booster dose at age 11 years (Tdap booster) to infants. To this end, we performed different parameterizations of the model that represent distinct possible epidemiological scenarios. The results obtained show that the inclusion of a single Tdap dose at age 11 years significantly reduces the incidence of the disease within this age group, but has a very low impact on the risk group (0–1 year). An effort to improve the coverage of the first dose would have a much greater impact on infants. These results hold in the 18 scenarios considered, which demonstrates the robustness of these conclusions.

(Received April 08 2012)

(Revised May 18 2012)

(Accepted May 31 2012)

(Online publication July 06 2012)

Key words

  • Epidemic;
  • mathematical model;
  • pertussis;
  • Tdap booster

Correspondence

c1 Author for correspondence: Dr G. Fabricius, Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas, Diagonal 113 y 64, Cc. 16, Suc. 4, 1900 La Plata, Argentina. (Email: fabricius@fisica.unlp.edu.ar)

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