Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-vvkck Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-26T03:01:50.941Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Reliability of Trends over Time in International Education Test Scores: Is the Performance of England's Secondary School Pupils Really in Relative Decline?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 December 2012

JOHN JERRIM
JOHN JERRIM*
Affiliation:
Department of Quantitative Social Science, Institute of Education, University of London, 20 Bedford Way, London, WC1H 0AL email: j.jerrim@ioe.ac.uk
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) and Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) are respected cross-national studies of pupil achievement. They have been specifically designed to study how countries’ educational systems are performing against one another, and how this is changing over time. These are, however, politically sensitive issues, where different surveys can produce markedly different results. This is shown via a case study for England, where apparent decline in PISA test performance has caused policymakers much concern. Results suggest that England's drop in the PISA ranking is not replicated in TIMSS, and that this contrast may be due to data limitations in both surveys. Consequently, I argue that the current coalition government should not base educational policies on the assumption that the performance of England's secondary school pupils has declined over the past decade.

Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Social Policy , Volume 42 , Issue 2 , April 2013 , pp. 259 - 279
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bradshaw, J., Ager, R., Burge, B. and Wheater, R. (2010a), PISA 2009: Achievement of 15-Year-Olds in England, Slough: NFER.Google Scholar
Bradshaw, J., Ager, R., Burge, B. and Wheater, R. (2010b), PISA 2009: Achievement of 15-Year-Olds in Wales, Slough: NFER.Google Scholar
Bradshaw, J., Sturman, L., Vappula, H., Ager, R. and Wheater, R. (2007a), Achievement of 15-Year-Olds in England: PISA 2006 National Report, Slough: NFER.Google Scholar
Bradshaw, J., Sturman, L., Vappula, H., Ager, R. and Wheater, R. (2007b), Achievement of 15-Year-Olds in Wales: PISA 2006 National Report, Slough: NFER.Google Scholar
Brown, G., Micklewright, J., Schnepf, S. and Waldmann, R. (2007), ‘International surveys of educational achievement: how robust are the findings?’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series, A, 170: 3, 623–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Department for Children, Schools and Families (2009), ‘Departmental report 2009’, London, downloadable from http://publications.dcsf.gov.uk/eOrderingDownload/DCSF-Annual%20Report%202009-BKMK.PDF.Google Scholar
Department for Education (2010), The Importance of Teaching – The Schools White Paper, Department for Education Research Report.Google Scholar
Egelund, N. (2008), ‘The value of international comparative studies of achievement – a Danish perspective’, Assessment in Education, 15: 3, 245–51.Google Scholar
Goldstein, H. (2004), ‘International comparisons of student attainment: some issues arising from the PISA study’, Assessment in Education, 11: 3, 319–30.Google Scholar
Goldstein, H. and Thomas, S. (2008), ‘Reflections on the international comparative surveys debate’, Assessment in Education, 15: 3, 215–22.Google Scholar
Gove, M. (2011) ‘House of commons oral answers to questions’, 7 February, accessed online 30/07/12 from http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmhansrd/cm110207/debtext/110207–0001.htm.Google Scholar
Hanushek, E., Link, S. and Woessmann, L. (2011), ‘Does school autonomy make sense everywhere? Panel estimates from PISA’, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 17591.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kreiner, S. (2011), Is the Foundation under PISA Solid? A Critical Look at the Scaling Model Underlying International Comparisons of Student Attainment, Department of Biostatistics Research Report 11/1.Google Scholar
Martin, M., Gregory, K. and Stemler, S. (2000), TIMSS 1999, Technical Report, International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement.Google Scholar
Micklewright, J. and Schnepf, S. (2006), Response Bias in England, in PISA 2000 and 2003, Department for Education and Skills Research Report 771.Google Scholar
Micklewright, J., Schnepf, S. and Skinner, C. (2012), ‘Non-response biases in surveys of school children: the case of the English PISA Samples’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 175 (4): 915–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nardi, E. (2008), ‘Cultural biases: a non-Anglophone perspective’, Assessment in Education, 15: 3, 25–66.Google Scholar
OECD (2010a), PISA 2009 Results: Learning Trends: Changes in Student Performance since 2000 Volume V, Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
OECD (2010b), PISA 2009 Results − Learning to Learn: Student Engagement Strategies and Practices Volume III, Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
OECD (2011), PISA 2009, Technical Report, Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
Olson, J., Martin, M. and Mullis, I. (2008), TIMSS 2007, Technical Report, International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement.Google Scholar
Perkins, R., Morgan, G., Cosgrove, J. and Shiel, G. (2010), PISA 2009: The Performance and Progress of 15 Year Olds in Ireland, Educational Research Centre Research Report.Google Scholar
Ruddock, G., Sturman, L., Schagen, I., Styles, B., Gnaldi, M. and Vaooula, H. (2004), Where England Stands in the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study 2003, National Foundation for Educational Research Report.Google Scholar
Sturgis, P., Smith, P. and Hughes, G. (2006), A Study of Suitable Methods for Raising Response Rates in School Surveys, Department for Education and Skills Research Report 721.Google Scholar
Sturman, L., Ruddock, G., Burge, B., Styles, B., Lin, Y. and Vappula, H. (2008), England's Achievement in TIMSS 2007: National Report for England, National Foundation for Educational Research Report.Google Scholar
Wagemaker, H. (2008), ‘Choices and trade-offs: reply to McGaw’, Assessment in Education, 15: 3, 267–78.Google Scholar
William, D. (2008), ‘International comparisons and sensitivity to instruction’, Assessment in Education, 15: 3, 253–57.Google Scholar
Young, T. (2010), ‘British schoolchildren now ranked 23rd in the world, down from 12th in 2000’, The Daily Telegraph, 7 December, accessed online 30/07/12 from http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100067092/british-schoolchildren-now-ranked-23rd-in-the-world-down-from-12th-in-2000/.Google Scholar