Epidemiology and Infection

Tuberculosis and other mycobacteria

Modelling tuberculosis trends in the USA

A. N. HILLa1 c1, J. E. BECERRAa1 and K. G. CASTROa1

a1 Division of Tuberculosis Elimination, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Atlanta, GA, USA

SUMMARY

We present a mathematical transmission model of tuberculosis in the USA. The model is calibrated to recent trends of declining incidence in the US-born and foreign-born populations and is used in assessing relative impacts of treatment of latently infected individuals on elimination time, where elimination is defined as annual incidence <1 case/million. Provided current control efforts are maintained, elimination in the US-born population can be achieved before the end of this century. However, elimination in the foreign-born population is unlikely in this timeframe even with higher rates of targeted testing and treatment of residents of and immigrants to the USA with latent tuberculosis infection. Cutting transmission of disease as an interim step would shorten the time to elimination in the US-born population but foreign-born rates would remain above the elimination target.

(Accepted December 12 2011)

(Online publication January 11 2012)

Correspondence:

c1 Author for correspondence: Dr A. N. Hill, Division of Tuberculosis Elimination, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, MS E-10, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. (Email: ahill2@cdc.gov)

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