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The Mediated Horserace: Campaign Polls and Poll Reporting

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 July 2012

J. Scott Matthews ,
Mark Pickup  and
Fred Cutler
J. Scott Matthews*
Affiliation:
Queen's University
Mark Pickup*
Affiliation:
University of Nottingham
Fred Cutler*
Affiliation:
University of British Columbia
*
J. Scott Matthews (corresponding author), Queen's University, Room C429, Mackintosh-Corry Hall, Kingston ON, Canada, K7L 3N6scott.matthews@queensu.ca
Mark Pickup, University of Nottingham, Room C17 Law and Social Sciences, University Park, NottinghamUK, NG7 2RD, Mark.Pickup@nottingham.ac.uk
Fred Cutler, University of British Columbia, C408 – 1866 Main Mall, Vancouver BC, Canada, V6T 1Z1, cutler@politics.ubc.ca
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Abstract

Abstract. Although “horserace journalism” is thought to be central to contemporary election news coverage and has generated a great deal of criticism, there is no general model of the nature and dynamics of horserace journalism or “poll reporting.” This paper proposes and empirically evaluates such a model. The model builds on and extends John Zaller's “theory of media politics” to consider specifically what citizens demand from polls and what journalists supply. Aside from the generic motivations of politicians, citizens and journalists, the model emphasizes the unique features of polls as objects of news coverage. The paper finds considerable support for the model in an analysis of newspaper coverage of horserace polls (that is, vote intention polls) in the Canadian general election of 2006. Our findings from this one case have potentially broad implications for our understanding of the relationship between polls and electoral democracy both empirically and normatively.

Résumé. Même si le journalisme de course (“horserace journalism”) est vu comme étant une composante centrale de la couverture électorale et qu'il a généré sa part de critiques, il n'existe pas de modèle général de la nature et de la dynamique de ce type de journalisme. Cet article propose, et évalue empiriquement, un tel modèle. Prenant comme point de départ la « Theory of Media Politics » de John Zaller, ce modèle considère plus spécifiquement ce que les citoyens demandent des sondages et ce que les journalistes leurs procurent. Au-delà des motivations génériques des politiciens, citoyens et journalistes, le modèle met l'accent sur les caractéristiques uniques des sondages en tant qu'objet de couverture journalistique. L'article présente des résultats supportant considérablement le modèle à travers une analyse de la couverture des sondages par les journaux (c'est-à-dire des sondages sur les intentions de vote) durant l'élection générale canadienne de 2006. Nos résultats émanant de ce cas ont potentiellement des implications beaucoup plus grandes pour notre compréhension de la relation entre les sondages et la démocratie électorale, à la fois sur le plan empirique et sur le plan normatif.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 45 , Issue 2 , June 2012 , pp. 261 - 287
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association 2012

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