Epidemiology and Infection

  • Epidemiology and Infection / Volume 140 / Issue 08 / August 2012, pp 1503-1514
  • Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2011 The online version of this article is published within an Open Access environment subject to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike licence <http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/>. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use.
  • DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268811002354 (About DOI), Published online: 24 November 2011
  • OPEN ACCESS

Pertussis

Modelling the impact of extended vaccination strategies on the epidemiology of pertussis

M. H. ROZENBAUMa1 c1, R. De VRIESa1, H. H. LEa1 and M. J. POSTMAa1

a1 Unit of PharmacoEpidemiology and PharmacoEconomics (PE2), Department of Pharmacy, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

SUMMARY

The aim of this study was to investigate the optimal pertussis booster vaccination strategy for The Netherlands. A realistic age-structured deterministic model was designed. Assuming a steady-state situation and correcting for underreporting, the model was calibrated using notification data from the period 1996–2000. Several sensitivity analyses were performed to explore the impact of different assumptions for parameters surrounded by uncertainty (e.g. duration of protection after natural infection, underreporting factors, and transmission probabilities). The optimal age of an additional booster dose is in the range of 10–15 years, and implementation of this booster dose will reduce both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, although the incidence of symptomatic infections in older age groups will increase. The impact of the different assumptions used in the model was in general limited. We conclude that over a wide range of assumptions, an additional booster dose can reduce the incidence of pertussis in the population.

(Accepted October 30 2011)

(Online publication November 24 2011)

Correspondence:

c1 Author for correspondence: Dr M. H. Rozenbaum, University of Groningen, Antonius Deusinglaan 1, 9713 AV Groningen, The Netherlands. (Email: m.h.rozenbaum@rug.nl)

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