Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-c4f8m Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T07:03:23.578Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Getting Ahead in the Communist Party: Explaining the Advancement of Central Committee Members in China

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 March 2012

VICTOR SHIH ,
CHRISTOPHER ADOLPH  and
MINGXING LIU
VICTOR SHIH*
Affiliation:
Northwestern University
CHRISTOPHER ADOLPH*
Affiliation:
University of Washington
MINGXING LIU*
Affiliation:
Peking University
*
Victor Shih is Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Northwestern University, 601 University Place, Evanston, IL 60208 (vshih@northwestern.edu).
Christopher Adolph is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, 101 Gowen Hall, Box 353530, Seattle, WA 98195 (cadolph@uw.edu).
Mingxing Liu is Associate Professor, China Institute for Educational Finance Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China (liumingxing72@gmail.com)
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Spectacular economic growth in China suggests the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has somehow gotten it right. A key hypothesis in both economics and political science is that the CCP's cadre evaluation system, combined with China's geography-based governing logic, has motivated local administrators to compete with one another to generate high growth. We raise a number of theoretical and empirical challenges to this claim. Using a new biographical database of Central Committee members, a previously overlooked feature of CCP reporting, and a novel Bayesian method that can estimate individual-level correlates of partially observed ranks, we find no evidence that strong growth performance was rewarded with higher party ranks at any of the postreform party congresses. Instead, factional ties with various top leaders, educational qualifications, and provincial revenue collection played substantial roles in elite ranking, suggesting that promotion systems served the immediate needs of the regime and its leaders, rather than encompassing goals such as economic growth.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 106 , Issue 1 , February 2012 , pp. 166 - 187
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Acemoglu, Daron, Johnson, Simon, and Robinson, James. 2000. “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation.” NBER Working Paper No. 7771. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Acemoglu, Daron, and Robinson, James A.. 2006. Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Adolph, Christopher. 2011. “Small Sample Properties of Partial-rank Data Estimators.” Seattle: University of Washington. faculty.washington.edu/cadolph (accessed October 6, 2011).Google Scholar
Adolph, Christopher. N.d. The Myth of Neutrality: Bankers, Bureaucrats, and Central Bank Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Blanchard, Olivier, and Schleifer, Andrei. 2000. “Federalism with and without Political Centralization: China versus Russia.” NBER Working Paper No. 7616. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boix, Carles, and Svolik, Milan. 2010. “The Foundation of Limited Authoritarian Government: Institutions and Power-sharing in Dictatorships.” Working Paper. Princeton University.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Smith, Alastair, Siverson, Randolph, and Morrow, James D.. 2003. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burns, John P. 1989. The Chinese Communist Party's Nomenklatura System: A Documentary Study of Party Control of Leadership Selection, 1979–1984. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe.Google Scholar
Chen, J. 2005. Guoshi yishu [Remembering State Affairs]. Beijing: CCP Party History Publisher.Google Scholar
Chen, Ye, Li, Hongbin, and Zhou, Li-An. 2005. “Relative Performance Evaluation and the Turnover of Provincial Leaders in China.” Economic Letters 88 (3): 421–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
China Data Online. 2005. “China Yearly Macro-economic Statistics.” Ann Arbor, MI: China Data Center.Google Scholar
Cui, Wunian. 2003. Wode 83 ge yue [My 83 Months]. Hong Kong: Ko Man Publishing Co.Google Scholar
Debs, Alexandre. 2007. The Wheel of Fortune: Agency Problems in Dictatorships. Rochester, NY: University of Rochester.Google Scholar
Deng, Liqun. 2005. Shi'erge chunqiu: 1975–1987 [Twelve Springs and Autumns: 1975–1987]. Hong Kong: Boszhi Publisher.Google Scholar
Desai, R. M., Olofsgard, A., and Yousef, Tarik 2009. “The Logic of Authoritarian Bargains.” Economics & Politics 21 (1): 93–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diebold, Francis X. 2000. “The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 12 (1): 175–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dittmer, Lowell. 1995. “Chinese Informal Politics.” China Journal 34: 1–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dreyer, June Teufel. 1976. China's Forty Millions: Minority Nationalities and National Integration in the People's Republic of China. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Easter, Gerald. 1996. “Personal Networks and Postrevolutionary State Building: Soviet Russia Reexamined.” World Politics 48 (4): 551–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Edin, Maria. 2003. “State Capacity and Local Agent Control in China: CCP Cadre Management from a Township Perspective.” China Quarterly 173: 35–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Egorov, Georgy, and Sonin, Konstantin. 2011. “Dictators and their Viziers: Endogenizing the Loyalty-competence trade-off. Journal of European Economic Association. 9 (5): 903–13.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, Peter B. 1995. Embedded Autonomy: States and Industrial Transformation. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fewsmith, Joseph. 1994. Dilemmas of Reform in China: Political Conflict and Economic Debate. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe.Google Scholar
Frye, Timothy, and Shleifer, Andrei. 1997. “The Invisible Hand and the Grabbing Hand.” American Economic Review 87 (2): 354–58.Google Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer, and Przeworski, Adam. 2006. “Cooperation, Cooptation, and Rebellion under Dictatorships.” Economics & Politics 18 (1): 1–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, Carlin, John B., Stern, Hal S., and Rubin, Donald B.. 2003. Bayesian Data Analysis. 2nd ed.Boca Raton, FL: Chopman and Hall/CRC Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, and Hill, Jennifer. 2007. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gilley, Bruce. 1998. Tiger on the Brink: Jiang Zemin and China's New Elite. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Guo, Gang. 2007. “Retrospective Economic Accountability under Authoritarianism: Evidence from China.” Political Research Quarterly 60: 378–90.Google Scholar
Haggard, Stephan, and Maxfield, Sylvia. 1996. The Political Economy of Financial Internationalization in the Developing World. In Internationalization and Domestic Politics, eds. Keohane, R., and Milner, H.. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Hoff, Peter. 2008. “Rank Likelihood Estimation for Continuous and Discrete Data.” ISBA Bulletin, 8–10.Google Scholar
Huang, Yasheng. 1996. Inflation and Investment Controls in China: The Political Economy of Central–Local Relations during the Reform Era. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Huang, Yasheng. 2008. Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics: Entrepreneurship and the State. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kang, David C. 2002. Crony Capitalism: Corruption and Development in South Korea and the Philippines. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, Honaker, James, Joseph, Anne, and Scheve, Kenneth. 2001. “Analyzing Incomplete Political Science Data: An Alternative Algorithm for Multiple Imputation.” American Political Science Review 95 (1): 49–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, Tomz, Michael, and Wittenberg, Jason. 2000. “Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation.” American Journal of Political Science 44 (2): 347–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, and Zeng, Langche. 2006. “The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals.” Political Analysis 14 (2): 131–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kung, James Kai-Sing, and Chen, Shuo. 2011. “The Tragedy of the Nomenklatura: Career Incentives and Political Radicalism during China's Great Leap Famine.” American Political Science Review 105 (1): 27–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lam, Willy Wo-Lap. 1994. “Jiang Faction Stages Its Surrogate Coup.” South China Morning Post October 5.Google Scholar
Lam, Willy Wo-Lap. 1999. The Era of Jiang Zemin. New York: Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Landry, Pierre F. 2008. Decentralized Authoritarianism in China: The Communist Party's Control of Local Elites in the Post-Mao Era. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, Hong Yung. 1991. From Revolutionary Cadres to Party Technocrats in Socialist China. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Li, Hongbin, and Zhou, Li-An. 2005. “Political Turnover and Economic Performance: The Incentive Role of Personnel Control in China.” Journal of Public Economics 89 (9/10): 1743–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Li, Junru. 2007. Zhongguo gongchandang lici quanguo daibiao dahui yanjiu [Studies of the Past Party Congresses of the Chinese Communist Party]. Beijing: Dongfang Publisher.Google Scholar
Lieberthal, Kenneth. 2004. Governing China: From Revolution through Reform. 2nd ed.New York: W. W. Norton.Google Scholar
Lieberthal, Kenneth, and Oksenberg, Michel. 1988. Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structures, and Processes. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lin, Justin Yifu. 1992. “Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China.” American Economic Review 82 (1): 34–51.Google Scholar
MacFarquhar, Roderick, and Schoenhals, Michael. 2006. Mao's Last Revolution. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mackerras, Colin. 2003. China's Ethnic Minorities and Globalisation. London: Routledge Curzon.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manion, Melanie. 1993. Retirement of Revolutionaries in China: Public Policies, Social Norms, Private Interests. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maskin, Eric, Qian, Yingyi, and Xu, Chenggang. 2000. “Incentives, Information, and Organizational Form.” Review of Economic Studies 67 (2): 359–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nathan, Andrew. 1973. “A Factionalism Model for CCP Politics.” China Quarterly 53: 33–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nathan, Andrew, and Gilley, Bruce. 2002. China's New Rulers: The Secret Files. New York: New York Review of Books.Google Scholar
Nathan, Andrew J., and Tsai, Kellee S.. 1995. “Factionalism: A New Institutionalist Restatement.” China Journal 34: 157–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Naughton, Barry. 1996. Growing out of the Plan: Chinese Economic Reform 1978–1993. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Olson, Mancur. 1993. “Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development.” American Political Science Review 87 (3): 567–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olson, Mancur, and McGuire, Martin. 1996. “The Economics of Autocracy and Majority Rule: The Invisible Hand and the Use of Force.” Journal of Economic Literature 34 (March): 72–96.Google Scholar
Organizational Division of the Central Organization Department. 2001. Dang zuzhi xuanju gongzuo shouce [Handbook of Party Election Work]. Beijing: Party Building Reading Material Publisher.Google Scholar
Pei, Minxin. 2006. China's Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pettitt, A. N. 1982. “Inference for the Linear Model Using a Likelihood Based on Ranks.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 44: 234–43.Google Scholar
Putnam, Robert D., Leonardi, Robert, and Nanetti, Raffaella. 1993. Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Pye, Lucian. 1980. The Dynamics of Factions and Consensus in Chinese Politics. Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation.Google Scholar
Pye, Lucian. 1992. The Spirit of Chinese Politics. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Qian, Yingyi, Weingast, Barry, and Montinola, Gabriella. 1995. “Federalism, Chinese Style: The Political Basis for Economic Success in China.” World Politics 48 (1): 50–81.Google Scholar
Ramseyer, J. Mark, and Rosenbluth, Frances McCall. 1998. The Politics of Oligarchy: Institutional Choice in Imperial Japan. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Sachs, Jeffrey, Woo, Wing Thye, Fischer, Stanley, and Hughes, Gordon. 1994. “Structural Factors in the Economic Reforms of China, Eastern Europe, and the Former Soviet Union.” Economic Policy 9 (18): 102–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schnedler, Wendelin. 2005. “Likelihood Estimation for Censored Random Vectors.” Econometric Reviews 24 (2): 195–217.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schneider, Ben Ross. 1993. “The Career Connection: A Comparative Analysis of Bureaucratic Preferences and Insulation.” Comparative Politics 25 (3): 331–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schneider, Ben Ross, and Maxfield, Sylvia. 1997. “Business and the State in Developing Countries.” In Business and the State in Developing Countries, ed. Schneider, B. R., and Maxfield, S.. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Sheng, Yumin. 2007. “Global Market Integration and Central Political Control: Foreign Trade and Intergovernmental Relations in China.” Comparative Political Studies 40 (4): 405–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shih, Victor. 2008a. Factions and Finance in China: Elite Politics and Inflation. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Shih, Victor. 2008b. “Nauseating” Displays of Loyalty: Monitoring the Factional Bargain Through Ideological Campaigns in China.” Journal of Politics 70 (4): 1177–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shih, Victor, Shan, Wei, and Liu, Mingxing. 2008. “Biographical Data of Central Committe Members: First to Sixteenth Party Congress” [Dataset]. Northwestern University.Google Scholar
Shirk, Susan. 1993. The Political Logic of Economic Reform in China. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Silva, Eduardo. 1996. “From Dictatorship to Democracy: The Business–State Nexus in Chile's Economic Transformation, 1975–1994.” Comparative Politics 28 (3): 299–320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spiegelhalter, D. J., Best, N. G., Carlin, B. P., and van der Linde, A.. 2002. “Bayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 64: 583–639.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svensson, Jakob. 2005. “Eight Questions about Corruption.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 3: 19–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, Milan. 2009. “Power-sharing and Leadership Dynamics in Authoritarian Regimes.” American Journal of Political Science. 53 (2): 177–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tao, Ran, Fubing, Su, Lu, Xi, and Zhu, Yuming. 2010. “Jingji zengzhang nenggou dailai pushengma? [Can Economic Performance Bring about Promotion?]” Guanli shijie [Management World] 12: 13–27.Google Scholar
Tullock, Gordon. 1987. Autocracy. Boston: Kluwer Academic.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walder, Andrew G., Li, Bobai, and Treiman, Donald J.. 2000. “In a State Socialist Regime: Dual Career Paths into the Urban Chinese Elite, 1949–1996.” American Sociological Review 65 (2): 191–209.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weber, Max. [1921] 1958. “Characteristics of Bureaucracy.” In From Max Weber: Essays in Sociology, ed. Gerth, H. H., and Mills, C. W.. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Whiting, Susan H. 2004. “The Cadre Evaluation System at the Grass Roots: The Paradox of Party Rule.” In Holding China Together: Diversity and National Integration in the post-Deng Era, ed. Yang, D. L., and Naughton, B.. New York: Cambridge University Press, 101–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wintrobe, Ronald. 1998. The Political Economy of Dictatorship. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhang, Liang. 2002. “Trilogy by Zhang Liang: ‘Part One—Deng Xiaoping's Magnanimity, Jiang Zemin's Pettiness.’” Hsin pao, November 27.Google Scholar