The Journal of Agricultural Science

Climate Change and Agriculture

Ensemble-based analysis of regional climate change effects on the cabbage stem weevil (Ceutorhynchus pallidactylus (Mrsh.)) in winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.)

J. JUNKa1 c1, M. EICKERMANNa1, K. GÖRGENa1, M. BEYERa1 and L. HOFFMANNa1

a1 Centre de Recherche Public – Gabriel Lippmann, Département Environnement et Agro-Biotechnologies (EVA), 41, rue du Brill, L-4422 Belvaux, Luxembourg

SUMMARY

The impact of projected regional climate change on the migration of cabbage stem weevil (Ceutorhynchus pallidactylus) to oilseed rape crops in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg is evaluated for past and future time spans. Several threshold-based statistical models for the emergence and the main migration of C. pallidactylus were chosen from the literature and combined with selected regional climate change projections of the EU ENSEMBLES project. Additionally, a simple degree-day based model was used to assess the plant development under expected climate change conditions. An earlier onset as well as a prolongation of the possible emergence times and the main migration periods was detected. The onset of stem elongation of oilseed rape was predicted to occur 3·0 days earlier per decade, while emergence of C. pallidactylus was expected to occur between 3·0 and 3·3 days earlier per decade. The main migration period of the weevil to the field may start 2·0 days earlier per decade under future climate conditions. Additionally, the time span of possible migration is prolonged for about 30 days under projected future climate conditions.

(Received December 14 2010)

(Revised March 03 2011)

(Accepted April 11 2011)

(Online publication June 15 2011)

Correspondence:

c1 To whom all correspondence should be addressed. Email: junk@lippmann.lu

0Comments