Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-skm99 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T15:08:06.667Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

A Realist Foreign Policy for the United States

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 December 2011

Sebastian Rosato
Affiliation:
University of Notre Dame. E-mail: srosato@nd.edu
John Schuessler
Affiliation:
Air War College. E-mail: john.schuessler@maxwell.af.mil

Abstract

What kind of policy can the United States pursue that ensures its security while minimizing the likelihood of war? We describe and defend a realist theory of foreign policy to guide American decision makers. Briefly, the theory says that if they want to ensure their security, great powers such as the United States should balance against other great powers. They should also take a relaxed view toward developments involving minor powers and, at most, should balance against hostile minor powers that inhabit strategically important regions of the world. We then show that had the great powers followed our theory's prescriptions, some of the most important wars of the past century might have been averted. Specifically, the world wars might not have occurred, and the United States might not have gone to war in either Vietnam or Iraq. In other words, realism as we conceive it offers the prospect of security without war. At the same time, we also argue that if the United States adopts an alternative liberal foreign policy, this is likely to result in more, rather than fewer, wars. We conclude by offering some theoretically-based proposals about how US decision makers should deal with China and Iran.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Arreguin-Toft, Ivan. 2001. “How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict.” International Security 26(1): 93128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Art, Robert J. et al. 2002. “War with Iraq Is Not in America's National Interest.” New York Times, paid advertisement, September 26. (http://www.bear-left.com/archive/2002/0926oped.html), accessed June 6, 2011.Google Scholar
Ashley, Richard K. 1984. “The Poverty of Neorealism.” International Organization 38(2): 225–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barkin, Samuel. 2009. “Realism, Prediction, and Foreign Policy.” Foreign Policy Analysis 5(3): 233–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, P.M.H. 1986. The Origins of the Second World War in Europe. London: Longman.Google Scholar
Betts, Richard K. 2003. “Striking First: A History of Thankfully Lost Opportunities.” Ethics and International Affairs 17(1): 1724.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Biddle, Stephen D. 2004. Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brooks, Stephen G. 1997. “Dueling Realisms.” International Organization 51(3): 445–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carr, Edward H. 1946. The Twenty Years' Crisis, 1919–1939. London: Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen, Thomas J. 2006. “The Rise of China and U.S. Policy toward East Asia: Fostering Stability or Creating a Monster?International Security 31(1): 81126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen, Thomas J., and Snyder, Jack. 1990. “Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity.” International Organization 44(2): 137–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coogan, John W., and Coogan, Peter F.. 1985. “The British Cabinet and the Anglo-French Staff Talks, 1905–1914: Who Knew What and When Did He Know It?Journal of British Studies 24(1): 110–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Copeland, Dale C. 2000. The Origins of Major War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Correlates of War. 2005. National Material Capabilities Data. (http://www.correlatesofwar.org/), accessed June 6, 2011.Google Scholar
Correlates of War. 2011. Inter-State War Data Set. (http://www.correlatesofwar.org/), accessed June 6, 2011.Google Scholar
Dallek, Robert. 1979. Franklin D. Roosevelt and American Foreign Policy, 1932–1945. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Desch, Michael C. 1989. “The Keys that Lock Up the World: Identifying American Interests in the Periphery.” International Security 14(1): 86121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Desch, Michael C. 2003. “It Is Kind to Be Cruel: The Humanity of American Realism.” Review of International Studies 29(3): 415–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Desch, Michael C. 2007/08. “America's Liberal Illiberalism: The Ideological Origins of Overreaction in U.S. Foreign Policy.” International Security 32(3): 743.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doyle, Michael W. 1983. “Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs, Part 2.” Philosophy and Public Affairs 12(4): 323–53.Google Scholar
Edelman, Eric S., Krepinevich, Andrew F., and Montgomery, Evan B.. 2011. “The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran: The Limits of Containment.” Foreign Affairs 90(1): 6681.Google Scholar
Elman, Colin. 1996. “Horses For Courses: Why Not Neorealist Theories of Foreign Policy?Security Studies 6(1): 753.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1991. “Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science.” World Politics 43(2): 169–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferguson, Niall. 1998. The Pity of War. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Flibbert, Andrew. 2006. “The Road to Baghdad: Ideas and Intellectuals in Explanations of the Iraq War.” Security Studies 15(2): 310–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedberg, Aaron L. 2005. “The Future of U.S.-China Relations: Is Conflict Inevitable?International Security 30(2): 745.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gershkoff, Amy, and Kushner, Shana. 2005. “Shaping Public Opinion: The 9/11—Iraq Connection In the Bush Administration's Rhetoric.” Perspectives on Politics 3(3): 525–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gilpin, Robert. 1984. “The Richness of the Tradition of Political Realism.” International Organization 38(2): 287304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gilpin, Robert. 1996. “No One Loves a Political Realist.” Security Studies 5(1): 326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glaser, Charles. 1994/95. “Realists as Optimists: Cooperation as Self-Help.” International Security 19(3): 5090.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glaser, Charles. 2010. Rational Theory of International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Glaser, Charles. 2011. “Will China's Rise Lead to War?Foreign Affairs 90(2): 8091.Google Scholar
Hess, Gary R. 2009. Vietnam: Explaining America's Lost War. Oxford: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Ikenberry, G. John. 2009. “Liberal Internationalism 3.0: America and the Dilemmas of Liberal World Order.” Perspectives on Politics 7(1): 7187.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jackson, Patrick Thaddeus, and Kaufman, Stuart J.. 2007. “Security Scholars for a Sensible Foreign Policy: A Study in Weberian Activism.” Perspectives on Politics 5(1): 95103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jentleson, Bruce W., and Ratner, Ely. 2011. “Bridging the Beltway-Ivory Tower Gap.” International Studies Review 13(1): 611.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1978. “Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma.” World Politics 30(2): 167214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1989. The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1994. “Hans Morgenthau, Realism, and the Study of International Politics.” Social Research 61(4): 853–77.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 2003. “Understanding the Bush Doctrine.” Political Science Quarterly 118(3): 365–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keiger, John F.V. 1983. France and the Origins of the First World War. New York: St. Martin's.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kennan, George. 1951. American Diplomacy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Keohane, Robert O. 1984. After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Keohane, Robert O. 1986. “Theory of World Politics: Structural Realism and Beyond.” In Neorealism and Its Critics, ed. Keohane, Robert O.. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Keohane, Robert O., and Martin, Lisa L.. 1995. “The Promise of Institutionalist Theory.” International Security 20(1): 3951.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kirshner, Jonathan. 2010. “The Tragedy of Offensive Realism: Classical Realism and the Rise of China.” European Journal of International Relations. Published online before print as doi:10.1177/1354066110373949.Google Scholar
Labs, Eric J. 1992. “Do Weak States Bandwagon?Security Studies 1(3): 383416.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Layne, Christopher. 1994. “Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace.” International Security 19(2): 549.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Layne, Christopher. 2006. The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Layne, Christopher. 2008. “Security Studies and the Use of History: Neville Chamberlain's Grand Strategy Revisited.” Security Studies 17(3): 397437.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lebow, Richard Ned. 2003. The Tragic Vision of Politics: Ethics, Interests and Orders. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levy, Jack S. 1987. “Declining Power and the Preventive Motivation for War.” World Politics 40(1): 82107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levy, Jack S. 1991. “Preferences, Constraints, and Choices in July 1914.” In Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War, ed. Miller, Steven E., Lynn-Jones, Sean M., and Van Evera, Stephen. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Lieber, Keir A. 2007. “The New History of World War I and What It Means for International Relations Theory.” International Security 32(2): 155–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lieven, D.C.B. 1983. Russia and the Origins of the First World War. New York: St. Martin's.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lindsay, James, and Takeyh, Ray. 2010. “After Iran Gets the Bomb: How Washington Can Limit the Damage from Iran's Nuclear Defiance.” Foreign Affairs 89(2): 3349.Google Scholar
Lyall, Jason, and Wilson, Isaiah. 2009. “Rage Against the Machines: Explaining Outcomes in Counterinsurgency Wars.” International Organization 63(1): 67106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lynn-Jones, Sean M. 1991. “Détente and Deterrence: Anglo German Relations, 1911–1914.” In Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War, ed. Miller, Steven E., Lynn-Jones, Sean M., and Van Evera, Stephen. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Lynn-Jones, Sean M., and Miller, Steven E.. 1995. “Preface.” In The Perils of Anarchy: Contemporary Realism and International Security, ed. Brown, Michael E., Lynn-Jones, Sean M., and Miller, Steven E.. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Mack, Andrew. 1975. “Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars: The Politics of Asymmetric Conflict.” World Politics 27(2): 175200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maliniak, Daniel, Oakes, Amy, Peterson, Susan, and Tierney, Michael. 2009. “Inside the Ivory Tower.” Foreign Policy 117: 8486.Google Scholar
Maoz, Zeev. 1989. “Power, Capabilities, and Paradoxical Conflict Outcomes.” World Politics 41(2): 239–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. 1983. Conventional Deterrence. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. 1990. “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War.” International Security 15(4): 556.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. 1994/95. “The False Promise of International Institutions.” International Security 19(3): 549.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. 2001. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W. Norton.Google Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. 2002. “Liberal Talk, Realist Thinking.” University of Chicago Magazine. (http://magazine.uchicago.edu/0202/features/index.htm), accessed June 6, 2011.Google Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. 2011. “Imperial by Design.” The National Interest 111: 1634.Google Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J., and Walt, Stephen M.. 2003a. “An Unnecessary War.” Foreign Policy 134: 5059.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J., and Walt, Stephen M.. 2003b. “Keeping Saddam Hussein in a Box.” New York Times (February 2): A15.Google Scholar
Mill, John Stuart. 1993. Utilitarianism, On Liberty, Considerations on Representative Government. London: Everyman.Google Scholar
Montgomery, Evan B. 2006. “Breaking Out of the Security Dilemma: Realism, Reassurance, and the Problem of Uncertainty.” International Security 31(2): 151–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgenthau, Hans J. 1965. “We Are Deluding Ourselves in Vietnam.” New York Times Magazine (April 18). (http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/vietnam/hans%27.htm), accessed June 6, 2011.Google Scholar
Morgenthau, Hans J. 1993. Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. Revised by Thompson, Kenneth W.. Boston: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Morris, Roger, and Lake, Anthony. 1971. “The Human Reality of Realpolitik.” Foreign Policy 4: 157–62.Google Scholar
Moyar, Mark. 2006. Triumph Forsaken: The Vietnam War, 1954–1965. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mueller, John. 2005. “The Iraq Syndrome.” Foreign Affairs 84(6): 4454.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Narizny, Kevin. 2003a. “The Political Economy of Alignment: Great Britain's Commitments to Europe, 1905–1939.” International Security 27(4): 184219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Narizny, Kevin. 2003b. “Both Guns and Butter, or Neither. Class Interests in the Political Economy of Rearmament.” American Political Science Review 97(2): 203–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Narizny, Kevin. 2007. The Political Economy of Grand Strategy. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Newsom, David D. 1995–1996. “Foreign Policy and Academia.” Foreign Policy 101: 5267.Google Scholar
Nye, Joseph. 2009. “Scholars on the Sidelines.” Washington Post (April 13): A15.Google Scholar
Olson, Mancur. 1965. The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oneal, John R., and Russett, Bruce. 1999. “The Kantian Peace: The Pacific Benefits of Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1885–1992.” World Politics 52(1): 137.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oren, Ido. 2009. “The Unrealism of Contemporary Realism: The Tension between Realist Theory and Realists' Practice.” Perspectives on Politics 7(2): 283301.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Payne, Rodger A. 2007. “Neorealists as Critical Theorists: The Purpose of Foreign Policy Debate.” Perspectives on Politics 5(3): 503–14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Posen, Barry R. 1984. The Sources of Military Doctrine. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Posen, Barry R. 2006a. “We Can Live with a Nuclear Iran.” New York Times (February 27). (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/27/opinion/27posen.html), accessed June 6, 2011.Google Scholar
Posen, Barry R. 2006b. “A Nuclear-Armed Iran: A Difficult but Not Impossible Policy Problem: A Century Foundation Report.” New York: Century Foundation.Google Scholar
Posen, Barry R. 2007. “The Case for Restraint.” American Interest 3(1): 717.Google Scholar
Rathbun, Brian C. 2008. “A Rose by Any Other Name: Neoclassical Realism as the Natural and Necessary Extension of Neorealism.” Security Studies 17(2): 128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Record, Jeffrey. 1998. The Wrong War: Why We Lost in Vietnam. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press.Google Scholar
Resnick, Evan. 2009. “Correspondence: Debating British Decision-Making toward Nazi Germany in the 1930s.” International Security 34(1): 182–88.Google Scholar
Ripsman, Norrin M., and Levy, Jack S.. 2008. “Buying Time: A Reinterpretation of British Appeasement in the 1930s.” International Security 33(2): 148–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosato, Sebastian. 2003. “The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory.” American Political Science Review 97(4): 585602.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rose, Gideon. 1998. “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy.” World Politics 51(1): 144–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Russett, Bruce M. 1993. Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Russett, Bruce M., and Oneal, John R.. 2001. Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations. New York: W. W. Norton.Google Scholar
Russett, Bruce M., Oneal, John R., and Davis, David. 1998. “The Third Leg of the Kantian Tripod for Peace: International Organizations and Militarized Disputes, 1950–1985.” International Organization 52(3): 441–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sagan, Scott D. 1991. “1914 Revisited: Allies, Offense, and Instability.” In Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War, ed. Miller, Steven E., Lynn-Jones, Sean M., and Van Evera, Stephen. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Schmidt, Brian C., and Williams, Michael C.. 2008. “The Bush Doctrine and the Iraq War: Neoconservatives Versus Realists.” Security Studies 17(2): 191220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schuessler, John M. 2010. “The Deception Dividend: FDR's Undeclared War.” International Security 34(4): 133–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schweller, Randall L. 1994. “Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In.” International Security 19(1): 72107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schweller, Randall L. 2006. Unanswered Threats: Political Constraints on the Balance of Power. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Shanker, Thom. 2011. “Warning Against Wars Like Iran and Afghanistan.” New York Times (February 25). (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/26gates.html), accessed June 6, 2011.Google Scholar
Sigelman, Lee. 2006. “The Coevolution of American Political Science and the American Political Science Review.” American Political Science Review 100(4): 463–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slater, Jerome. 1993/94. “The Domino Theory and International Politics: The Case of Vietnam.” Security Studies 3(2): 186224.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snyder, Jack L. 1991. Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Steiner, Zara S. 1977. Britain and the Origins of the First World War. London: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Talmadge, Caitlin. 2008. “Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz.” International Security 33(1): 82117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, A.J.P. 1954. The Struggle for Mastery in Europe, 1848–1918. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Trachtenberg, Marc. 1991. “The Meaning of Mobilization in 1914.” In Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War, ed. Miller, Steven E., Lynn-Jones, Sean M., and Van Evera, Stephen. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Trachtenberg, Marc. 1996. “Review of Paul W. Schroeder The Transformation of European Politics: 1763–1848.” Orbis 40(1): 158–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trachtenberg, Marc. 2003. “The Question of Realism: An Historian's View.” Security Studies 13(1): 156–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Evera, Stephen. 1990. “Why Europe Matters, Why the Third World Doesn't: American Grand Strategy after the Cold War.” Journal of Strategic Studies 13(2): 151.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Evera, Stephen. 1999. Causes of War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Vegetius Renatus, Publius Flavius. 1995. De re militari, ed. Onnerfors, Alf. Stuttgart: B.G. Teubner.Google Scholar
Walt, Stephen M. 1987. The Origins of Alliances. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Walt, Stephen M. 1989. “The Case for Finite Containment: Analyzing U.S. Grand Strategy.” International Security 14(1): 549.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walt, Stephen M. 1991. “The Renaissance of Security Studies.” International Studies Quarterly 35(2): 211–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walt, Stephen M. 2005a. “The Relationship Between Theory and Policy in International Relations.” Annual Review of Political Science 8: 2348.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walt, Stephen M. 2005b. Taming American Power: The Global Response to U.S. Primacy. New York: W. W. Norton.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walt, Stephen M. 2009. “Alliances in a Unipolar World.” World Politics 61(1): 86120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1967. “The Politics of Peace.” International Studies Quarterly 11(3): 199211.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1986. “A Response to My Critics.” In Neorealism and Its Critics, ed. Keohane, Robert O.. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1988. “The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars.” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18(4): 615–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1990. “Nuclear Myths and Political Realities.” American Political Science Review 84(3): 731–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wendt, Alexander. 1992. “Anarchy Is What States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics.” International Organization 46(2): 391425.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wendt, Alexander. 1999. Social Theory of International Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Williams, Michael C. 2005. The Realist Tradition and the Limits of International Relations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Williamson, Samuel R., and May, Ernest R.. 2007. “An Identity of Opinion: Historians and July 1914.” Journal of Modern History 79(2): 335–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilson, Keith M. 1981. “British Power in the European Balance, 1906–1914.” In Retreat from Power: Studies in Britain's Foreign Policy of the Twentieth Century, vol. 1, 1906–1939, ed. Dilks, David. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar