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The Decider's Dilemma: Leader Culpability, War Outcomes, and Domestic Punishment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 August 2011

SARAH E. CROCO
SARAH E. CROCO*
Affiliation:
University of Maryland, College Park
*
Sarah E. Croco is Assistant Professor, Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland–College Park, 3140 Tydings Hall, College Park, MD 20742 (scroco@umd.edu).
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Abstract

A leader's culpability for involving his state in a conflict affects both his war termination calculus and his domestic audience's willingness to punish him if he loses. I define a culpable leader as any leader who either presides over the beginning of a war, or comes to power midwar and shares a political connection with a culpable predecessor. Using a data set created specifically for this study, I find that culpable leaders are more likely than nonculpable ones to achieve favorable war outcomes. I also find that domestic audiences will be willing to punish culpable leaders who lose, yet spare nonculpable leaders who do the same. Taken together, my findings underscore the need to appreciate more fully the role individual leaders play in bringing their states to war.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 105 , Issue 3 , August 2011 , pp. 457 - 477
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2011

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