International Journal of Astrobiology

Research Article

Temporal dispersion of the emergence of intelligence: an inter-arrival time analysis

Thomas W. Haira1

a1 College of Arts and Sciences, Florida Gulf Coast University, 10501 FGCU Blvd, South, Fort Myers, FL 33965, USA e-mail:


Many reasons for why extraterrestrial intelligences might avoid communications with our civilization have been proposed. One possible scenario is that all civilizations follow the lead of some particularly distinguished civilization. This paper will examine the impact the first successful civilization could have on all other subsequent civilizations within its sphere of influence and the ramifications of this as it relates to the Fermi Paradox. Monte Carlo simulation is used to map the inter-arrival times of early civilizations and to highlight the immense epochs of time that the earliest civilizations could have had the Galaxy to themselves.

(Received October 27 2010)

(Accepted January 17 2011)

(Online publication February 25 2011)