Epidemiology and Infection

Original Papers

Pandemic influenza

Health service resource needs for pandemic influenza in developing countries: a linked transmission dynamics, interventions and resource demand model

R. KRUMKAMPa1 c1, M. KRETZSCHMARa2a3, J. W. RUDGEa4, A. AHMADa1, P. HANVORAVONGCHAIa4, J. WESTENHOEFERa1, M. STEINa2, W. PUTTHASRIa5 and R. COKERa4

a1 Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Hamburg, Germany

a2 National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

a3 University Medical Centre, Utrecht, The Netherlands

a4 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK

a5 Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand

SUMMARY

We used a mathematical model to describe a regional outbreak and extrapolate the underlying health-service resource needs. This model was designed to (i) estimate resource gaps and quantities of resources needed, (ii) show the effect of resource gaps, and (iii) highlight which particular resources should be improved. We ran the model, parameterized with data from the 2009 H1N1v pandemic, for two provinces in Thailand. The predicted number of preventable deaths due to resource shortcomings and the actual resource needs are presented for two provinces and for Thailand as a whole. The model highlights the potentially huge impact of health-system resource availability and of resource gaps on health outcomes during a pandemic and provides a means to indicate where efforts should be concentrated to effectively improve pandemic response programmes.

(Accepted August 27 2010)

(Online publication October 05 2010)

Correspondence:

c1 Author for correspondence: R. Krumkamp, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences, Department of Health Sciences, Lohbrügger Kirchstrasse 65, 21033 Hamburg, Germany. (Email: ralf.krumkamp@haw-hamburg.de)

Metrics