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Adaptation to increasing severity of phoma stem canker on winter oilseed rape in the UK under climate change

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 August 2010

A. P. BARNES ,
A. WREFORD ,
M. H. BUTTERWORTH ,
M. A. SEMENOV ,
D. MORAN ,
N. EVANS  and
B. D. L. FITT
A. P. BARNES*
Affiliation:
Land Economy Group, Research Division, SAC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK
A. WREFORD
Affiliation:
Land Economy Group, Research Division, SAC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK
M. H. BUTTERWORTH
Affiliation:
Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK
M. A. SEMENOV
Affiliation:
Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK
D. MORAN
Affiliation:
Land Economy Group, Research Division, SAC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK
N. EVANS
Affiliation:
Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK
B. D. L. FITT
Affiliation:
Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK
*
*To whom all correspondence should be addressed. Email: Andrew.Barnes@sac.ac.uk
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Summary

Various adaptation strategies are available that will minimize or negate predicted climate change-related increases in yield loss from phoma stem canker in UK winter oilseed rape (OSR) production. A number of forecasts for OSR yield, national production and subsequent economic values are presented, providing estimates of impacts on both yield and value for different levels of adaptation. Under future climate change scenarios, there will be increasing pressure to maintain yields at current levels. Losses can be minimized in the short term (up to the 2020s) with a ‘low’-adaptation strategy, which essentially requires some farmer-led changes towards best management practices. However, the predicted impacts of climate change can be negated and, in most cases, improved upon, with ‘high’-adaptation strategies. This requires increased funding from both the public and private sectors and more directed efforts at adaptation from the producer. Most literature on adaptation to climate change has had a conceptual focus with little quantification of impacts. It is argued that quantifying the impacts of adaptation is essential to provide clearer information to guide policy and industry approaches to future climate change risk.

Type
Climate Change and Agriculture
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 148 , Issue 6 , December 2010 , pp. 683 - 694
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2010

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References

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