Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-m8qmq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-18T01:29:46.353Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

THE CHANGING SEX RATIOS AT BIRTH DURING THE CIVIL WAR IN TAJIKISTAN: 1992–1997

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 July 2010

SOPHIE HOHMANN
Affiliation:
EHESS and INED, Paris, France
SOPHIE ROCHE
Affiliation:
Max Planck Institute for Social Anthropology, Halle, Germany
MICHEL GARENNE
Affiliation:
IRD and Institut Pasteur, Paris, France

Summary

Sex ratios at birth are known to change during wars or shortly after. This study investigated changes in sex ratios during the civil war that occurred in Tajikistan after the dismantling of the Soviet Union. This civil war was particularly bloody and long lasting, and had many demographic consequences. According to vital registration data, some 27,000 persons died in excess of previous trends during the civil war period (1992–1997), and total mortality was sometimes estimated to be three times higher by independent observers. Birth rates dropped markedly during the war, and sex ratios at birth increased significantly from 104.6 before the war to 106.9 during the war, to return to baseline values afterwards. The change in sex ratio is investigated according to demographic evidence (migration, delayed marriage, spouse separation), substantiated with qualitative evidence (difficulties with food supply), and compared with patterns found in Europe during World War II, as well as with recent wars in the Middle East.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adamets, S. (2002) Famine in nineteenth and twentieth century Russia: mortality by age, cause and gender. In Dyson, T. & O'Grada, C. (eds) Famine Demography: Perspectives from the Past and Present. Oxford University Press, Oxford.Google Scholar
Agadjanian, V. & Prata, N. (2002) War, peace, and fertility in Angola. Demography 29(2), 215231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Andersson, R. & Bergstrom, S. (1998) Is maternal malnutrition associated with a low sex ratio at birth? Human Biology 70(6), 101106.Google ScholarPubMed
Ansari-Lari, M. & Saadat, M. (2002) Changing sex ratios in Iran 1976–2000. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 56, 622623.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Aubenque, M. (1989) Indice de masculinité à la naissance: aperçu rétrospectif et commentaires. Journal de la Société Statistique de Paris 130, 80102.Google Scholar
Blum, A. & Monnier, A. (1988) La mortalité en Union Soviétique. Population et Sociétés, No. 223. INED, Paris.Google Scholar
Catalano, R., Bruckner, T., Gould, J., Eskenazi, B. & Anderson, B. (2005) Sex ratios in California following the terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001. Human Reproduction 20, 11211227.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Catalano, R., Bruckner, T., Marks, A. R. & Eskenazi, B. (2006) Exogenous shocks to the human sex ratio: the case of September 11th 2001 in New York City. Human Reproduction 21, 31273131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ciocco, A. (1938) Variations in the ratio at birth in USA. Human Biology 10, 3664.Google Scholar
Chahnazarian, A. (1988) Determinants of the sex ratio at birth: review of recent literature. Social Biology 35(3–4), 214235.Google ScholarPubMed
Clifford, D. M. (2009) Marriage and fertility change in post-Soviet Tajikistan. PhD Dissertation, University of Southampton, UK.Google Scholar
Clifford, D., Falkingham, J. & Hinde, A. (2010) Through civil war, food crisis and drought: trends in fertility and nuptiality in post-soviet Tajikistan. European Journal of Population (forthcoming). Online publication: DOI 10.1007/s10680-010-9206-xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dudoignon, S. (1994) Une segmentation peut en cacher une autre: régionalismes et clivages politico-économiques au Tadjikistan. Cahiers d'études sur la Méditerranée orientale et le monde turco-iranien, CEMOTI, No. 18.Google Scholar
Dudoignon, S. & Jahangiri, G. (1994) Le Tadjikistan existe-t-il ? Destins politiques d'une nation imparfaite. Cahiers d'études sur la Méditerranée orientale et le monde turco-iranien, CEMOTI, No. 18, pp. 1201.Google Scholar
Edwards, A. W. F. (1958) An analysis of Geissler's data on the human sex ratio. Annals of Human Genetics 23(1), 615.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fukuda, M., Fukuda, K., Shimizu, T. & Møller, H. (1998) Decline in sex ratio at birth after Kobe earthquake. Human Reproduction 13(8), 23212322.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Garenne, M. (2009) Heterogeneity in the sex ratio in European populations. Genus 64(3–4), 99108.Google Scholar
Gini, C. (1951) Combinations and sequences of sexes in human families and mammal litters. A review of literature with comments and some new results. Acta Genetica et Statistica Medica 2, 220244.Google Scholar
Goskomstat Respubliki Tadžikistan (2005) Monografiâ I atlas Respubliki Tadžikistan po dannym Vseobščej perepisi naseleniâ 2000 goda. Dušanbe, p. 6. [Monography and Atlas of the Republic of Tajikistan, in Russian].Google Scholar
Goskomstat Respubliki Tadžikistan (2006) Tadžikistan: 15 let gosudarstvennoj nezavisimosti. Statističeskij sbornik, Dušanbe, p. 488. [Tajikistan, Statistical Abstract: 15 years of independence, in Russian].Google Scholar
Graffelman, J. & Hoekstra, R. (2000) A statistical analysis of the effect of warfare on the human secondary sex ratio. Human Biology 72, 433445.Google Scholar
Gray, R. H., Simpson, J. L., Bitto, A. C., Queenan, J. T., Li, C., Kambic, R. T. et al. (1998) Sex ratio associated with timing of insemination and length of the follicular phase in planned and unplanned pregnancies during use of natural family planning. Human Reproduction 13(5), 13971400.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Khalid, A. (2007) Islam after Communism. Religion and Politics in Central Asia. University of California Press, Berkeley, USA, pp. 147153.Google Scholar
Hohmann, S. (2005) Enjeux politiques des indicateurs de santé: l'exemple de la mortalité infantile en Ouzbékistan. Paper presented at the IUSSP conference, Tours, France. URL: http://iussp2005.princeton.eduGoogle Scholar
Hohmann, S. (2010) Migrations et enjeux socio-économiques et sanitaires de la guerre civile au Tadjikistan. In Laruelle, M. (ed.) Dynamiques migratoires et changements sociétaux en Asie Centrale. Editions Pétra, Paris, pp. 189213.Google Scholar
Human Mortality Database (2009) University of California, Berkeley. URL: www.mortality.org/Google Scholar
Human Right Watch (HRW) (1993) Human Rights in Tajikistan: In the Wake of the Civil War. HRW/Helsinki, December 1993, p. 47.Google Scholar
International Crisis Group (2001) Tajikistan: an Uncertain Peace. ICG Asia Report No. 30, Osh/Brussels.Google Scholar
James, W. H. (1987) The human sex ratio. Part 1: A review of the literature. Human Biology 59(5), 721752.Google ScholarPubMed
James, W. H. (2000) Analysing data on the sex ratio of human births by cycle day of conception. Human Reproduction 15(5), 12061208.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
James, W. H. (2009) The variations of human sex ratio during and after wars, and their potential explanations. Journal of Theoretical Biology 257, 116123.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Li, Q. & Wen, M. (2005) Conflict and adult mortality. Journal of Peace Research 42, 471492.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mackenzie, C. A., Lockridge, A. & Keith, M. (2005) Declining sex ratio in a first nation community. Environmental Health Perspective 113, 12951298.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacIntyre, K. (2002) Famine and the female mortality advantage. In Dyson, T. & Gráda, C. Ó. (eds) Famine Demography: Perspectives from the Past and Present. Oxford University Press, Oxford.Google Scholar
Olimova, S. (2004) Opposition in Tajikistan: Pro et Contra. In Yaacov, Ro'i (ed.) Democracy and Pluralism in Muslim Eurasia. The Cummings Center Series, Frank Cass, London, pp. 245263.Google Scholar
Open Society Institute (1996) Tajikistan: Refugee Reintegration and Conflict Prevention. Forced Migration Projects.Google Scholar
Polasek, O., Kolcic, I. & Rudan, I. (2005) Sex ratio at birth and war in Croatia (1991–1995). Human Reproduction 20, 24892491.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Polasek, O. (2006) Did the 1991–1995 wars in the former Yugoslavia affect sex ratio at birth? European Journal of Epidemiology 21(1), 6164.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Roche, S. (2009) Domesticating youth. The youth bulge in post-civil war Tajikistan. PhD Dissertation, Martin-Luther-Universität, Halle-Wittenberg, Germany.Google Scholar
Roy, O. (2004) Tadjikistan: structures d'un conflit. CEMOTI, No. 19, Laïcité(s) en France et en Turquie. URL: http://cemoti.revues.org/document226.html.Google Scholar
Saadat, M. (2006) Change in sex ratio at birth in Sardasht (North West of Iran) after chemical bombardment. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 60(2), 183.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Saadat, M. & Ansari-Lari, M. (2004) Sex ratio of birth during wartime and psychological tensions. Human Reproduction 19(2), 465.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Safarinejad, M. R. (2001) Testicular effect of mustard gas. Urology 58(1), 9094.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Stein, A. D., Zybert, P. A. & Lumey, L. J. (2004) Acute undernutrition is not associated with excess of females at birth in humans: the Dutch hunger winter. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 271, Supplement 4, S138141.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Süssmilch, J. P. (1761) Die Göttliche Ordnung (2nd edition). [Translated by Jacqueline, Hecht (1979) L'ordre divin aux origines de la démographie. INED, Paris.]Google Scholar
Teitelbaum, M. S. (1970) Factors affecting the sex ratio in large populations. Journal of Biosocial Science, Supplement 2, 6171.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
United Nations High Commission for Refugees (1996a) Populations déplacées et réfugiées au Tadjikistan durant la période soviétique et la guerre civile. UNHCR report A/51/483, 24th October 1996.Google Scholar
United Nations High Commission for Refugees (1996b) Report on Tajikistan: January 1993–March 1996. UNHCR, Geneva.Google Scholar
United Nations Development Programme (1998) Tajikistan: Human Development Report 1998. UNDP, New York.Google Scholar
Visaria, P. (1967) Sex ratio at birth in territories with relatively complete registration. Eugenics Quarterly 14, 132142.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Whitlock, M. (2003) Land Beyond the River. The Untold Story of Central Asia. Thomas Dunne Books, New York.Google Scholar
Zorn, B., Sucur, V., Stare, J. & Meden-Vrtovec, H. (2002) Decline in sex ratio at birth after 10-day war in Slovenia: brief communication. Human Reproduction 17(12), 31733177.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed