Epidemiology and Infection

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Epidemiology and Infection (2010), 138:884-897 Cambridge University Press
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2009
doi:10.1017/S0950268809991245

Original Papers

Modelling and methods

A mathematical model of the indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination


T. VAN EFFELTERREa1 c1, M. SORIANO-GABARRÓa1, S. DEBRUSa1, E. CLAIRE NEWBERNa1 and J. GRAYa2

a1 GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, Wavre, Belgium
a2 Virus Reference Department, Centre for Infections, Health Protection Agency, Colindale, London, UK
Article author query
van effelterre t [PubMed]  [Google Scholar]
soriano-gabarró m [PubMed]  [Google Scholar]
debrus s [PubMed]  [Google Scholar]
claire newbern e [PubMed]  [Google Scholar]
gray j [PubMed]  [Google Scholar]

SUMMARY

Rotavirus (RV) infections progressively confer natural immunity against subsequent infection. Similarly to natural infection, vaccination with a live attenuated vaccine potentially reduces RV transmission and induces herd protection. A mathematical transmission model was developed to project the impact of a vaccination programme on the incidence of RV infection and disease for five countries in the European Union. With vaccination coverage rates of 70%, 90% and 95% the model predicted that, in addition to the direct effect of vaccination, herd protection induced a reduction in RV-related gastroenteritis (GE) incidence of 25%, 22% and 20%, respectively, for RV-GE of any severity, and of 19%, 15%, and 13%, respectively, for moderate-to-severe RV-GE, 5 years after implementation of a vaccination programme.

(Accepted October 29 2009)

(Online publication December 23 2009)

Key Words:Herd protection; mathematical model; rotavirus; vaccination

Correspondence:

c1 Author for correspondence: T. Van Effelterre, Ph.D., GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, Rue Fleming 20, Building W23, Wavre 1300, Belgium. (Email: Thierry.van-effelterre@gskbio.com)


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