Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-wq2xx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T10:17:39.746Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Politics and the Suboptimal Provision of Counterterror

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2007

Ethan Bueno de Mesquita
Ethan Bueno de Mesquita
Affiliation:
Center in Political Economy at Washington University, St. Louis, Mo. ebuenode@artsci.wustl.edu
Get access

Abstract

I present a model of interactions between voters, a government, and a terrorist organization. The model focuses on a previously unexplored conceptualization of counterterrorism as divided into tactic-specific observable and general unobservable tactics. When there is divergence between voters and government preferences, strategic substitution among different modes of attack by terrorists and agency problems between the voters and government create a situation in which the politically optimal counterterrorism strategy pursued by the government in response to electoral and institutional incentives is quite different from the security maximizing counterterrorism strategy. In particular, in response to electoral pressure, the government allocates resources to observable counterterror in excess of the social optimum. This problem is particularly severe when governments put great weight on rent-seeking or care less about counterterror than do voters and when terrorists have a large set of tactics from which to choose. Voters can decrease the magnitude of the agency problem by increasing the benefits of reelection by, for example, slackening requirements for nonsecurity related public goods.I have received valuable comments and advice from Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Randy Calvert, Martin Cripps, James Fearon, Amanda Friedenberg, Robert Powell, Matthew Stephenson, and Barbara Walter. I thank the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy at Washington University for financial support.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 61 , Issue 1 , January 2007 , pp. 9 - 36
Copyright
© 2007 The IO Foundation and Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Ashworth, Scott. 2005. Reputational Dynamics and Political Careers. Journal of Law, Economics and Organization 21 (2):441–66.Google Scholar
Austen-Smith, David, and Jeffrey Banks. 1989. Electoral Accountability and Incumbency. In Models of Strategic Choice in Politics, edited by Peter C. Ordeshook, 121–48. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Barro, Robert. 1973. The Control of Politicians: An Economic Model. Public Choice 14 (1):19–42.Google Scholar
Berrebi, Claude, and Esteban Klor. 2006. On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes: Theory and Evidence from the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (6):899–925.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan. 2005. The Quality of Terror. American Journal of Political Science 49 (3):515–30.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan, and Eric Dickson. 2007. The Propaganda of the Deed: Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Mobilization. American Journal of Political Science 51 (2), forthcoming.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan, and Amanda Friedenberg. 2005. Optimal Retrospective Voting. Unpublished manuscript, Washington University, St. Louis, Mo.
Crenshaw, Martha. 1995. Thoughts on Relating Terrorism to Historical Contexts. In Terrorism in Context, edited by Martha Crenshaw, 3–26. University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press.
de Figueiredo, Rui J. P., Jr., and Barry R. Weingast. 2001. Vicious Cycles: Endogenous Political Extremism and Political Violence. Institute of Governmental Studies Working Paper 2001-9. University of California, Berkeley.
Edlin, Aaron S., and Chris Shannon. 1998. Strict Monotonicity in Comparative Statics. Journal of Economic Theory 81 (1):201–19.Google Scholar
Enders, Walter, and Todd Sandler. 1993. The Effectiveness of Anti-Terrorism Policies: A Vector-Autoregression-Intervention Analysis. American Political Science Review 87 (4):829–44.Google Scholar
Enders, Walter, and Todd Sandler. 2002. Patterns of Transnational Terrorism, 1970–99: Alternative Time Series Estimates. International Studies Quarterly 46 (2):145–65.Google Scholar
Enders, Walter, Todd Sandler, and Jon Cauley. 1990. UN Conventions, Technology, and Retaliation in the Fight Against Terrorism: An Econometric Evaluation. Terrorism and Political Violence 2 (1):83–105.Google Scholar
Faria, Joao Ricard. 2006. Terrorist Innovations and Anti-terrorist Policies. Terrorism and Political Violence 18 (1):47–56.Google Scholar
Ferejohn, John. 1986. Incumbent Performance and Electoral Control. Public Choice 50 (1–3):5–26.Google Scholar
Gibbs, Jack. 1989. Conceptualization of Terrorism. American Sociological Review 54 (3):329–40.Google Scholar
Hoffman, Bruce. 1998. Inside Terrorism. New York: Columbia University Press.
Holmström, Bengt, and Paul Milgrom. 1991. Multitask Principal-Agent Analyses: Incentive Contracts, Asset Ownership, and Job Design. Journal of Law, Economics and Organization 7 (Special Issue):24–52.Google Scholar
Im, Eric Iksoon, Jon Cauley, and Todd Sandler. 1987. Cycles and Substitutions in Terrorist Activities: A Spectral Approach. Kyklos 40 (2):238–55.Google Scholar
Kibbe, Jennifer D. 2004. The Rise of the Shadow Warriors. Foreign Affairs 83 (3):102–15.Google Scholar
Laqueur, Walter. 1977. Terrorism. London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson.
Lichbach, Mark Irving. 1987. Deterrence or Escalation?: The Puzzle of Aggregate Studies of Repression and Dissent. Journal of Conflict Resolution 31 (2):266–97.Google Scholar
Padró i Miquel, Gerard. 2005. Multitask Political Agency. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University, Stanford, Calif.
Persson, Torsten, Gerard Roland, and Guido Tabellini. 2000. Comparative Politics and Public Finance. Journal of Political Economy 108 (6):1121–61.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. Forthcoming. Defending Against Terrorist Attacks with Limited Resources. American Political Sciences Review.
Rosendorff, Peter, and Todd Sandler. 2004. Too Much of a Good Thing? The Proactive Response Dilemma. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (5):657–71.Google Scholar
Sandler, Todd, and Harvey E. Lapan. 1988. The Calculus of Dissent: An Analysis of Terrorists' Choice of Targets. Snythese 76 (2):245–61.Google Scholar
Sandler, Todd, and Kevin Siqueira. 2006. Global Terrorism: Deterrence versus Preemption. Canadian Journal of Economics 39 (4):1370–87.Google Scholar