Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-gtxcr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T17:36:17.468Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A Presidential Economic Scorecard: Performance and Perception

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 September 2009

Chris J. Dolan ,
John Frendreis  and
Raymond Tatalovich
Chris J. Dolan
Affiliation:
Lebanon Valley College
John Frendreis
Affiliation:
Loyola University Chicago
Raymond Tatalovich
Affiliation:
Loyola University Chicago
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

It is assumed that voters blame incumbents for poor economic performance but give credit when the economy is strong. A huge literature shows the impact of economic indicators and economic perceptions on vote choice and presidential popularity, but there is precious little research on whether public perceptions match economic reality. We propose a novel comparison of perceptions with performance by utilizing the Gallup Poll “most important” problem question. The average percentage that mentions unemployment, inflation, and the general economy over each presidential term from 1949 to 2008 is compared against the Presidential Economic Scorecard. The public correctly perceived unemployment and the general economy as salient national problems, but not inflation, and we speculate on why public perceptions do not correspond to actual inflation rates.

Type
Features
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 42 , Issue 4 , October 2009 , pp. 689 - 694
Copyright
Copyright © The American Political Science Association 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Blendon, Robert J., Benson, John M., Brodie, Mollyann, Morin, Richard, Altman, Drew E., Gitterman, Daniel, Brossard, Mario, and James, Matt. 1997. “Bridging the Gap Between the Public's and Economists' Views of the Economy.” Journal of Economic Perceptions 11 (Summer): 105–18.Google Scholar
Bloom, Howard S., and Price, H. Douglas. 1975. “Voter Response to Short-Run Economic Conditions: The Asymmetric Effect of Prosperity and Recession.” American Political Science Review 69 (December): 1240–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chappell, Henry W. Jr. 1990. “Economic Performance, Voting, and Political Support: A Unified Approach.” Review of Economics and Statistics 72 (May): 313–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chappell, Henry W. Jr., and Keech, William R.. 1985. “A New View of Political Accountability for Economic Performance.” American Political Science Review 79 (March): 10–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., Rapkin, Jonathan, and Stewart, Marianne C.. 1994. “A President Out of Work: A Note on the Political Economy of Presidential Approval in the Bush Years.” British Journal of Political Science 24 (October): 535–48.Google Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., and Stewart, Marianne C.. 1994. “Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The ‘Bankers’ Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered.” American Journal of Political Science 38 (November): 1104–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conover, Pamela Johnston, and Feldman, Stanley. 1986. “Emotional Reactions to the Economy: I'm Mad as Hell and I'm Not Going to Take It Anymore.” American Journal of Political Science 30 (February): 50–78.Google Scholar
Conover, Pamela Johnston, Feldman, Stanley, and Knight, Kathleen. 1986. “Judging Inflation and Unemployment: The Origins of Retrospective Evaluations.” Journal of Politics 48 (August): 565–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dolan, Chris J., Frendreis, John, and Tatalovich, Raymond. 2008. The Presidency and Economic Policy. Lanham, MD: Rowan and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Duch, Raymond M., and Stevenson, Randolph T.. 2008. The Economic Vote. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert. 1989. “Economic Conditions and Presidential Voting.” American Political Science Review 83 (2): 568–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., MacKuen, Michael B., and Stimson, James A.. 2002. The Macro Polity. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Evans, Geoffrey, and Andersen, Robert. 2006. “The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions.” Journal of Politics 68 (2): 194–207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fair, Ray C. 1988. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update.” Political Behavior 10 (2): 168–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feldman, Stanley. 1982. “Economic Self-Interest and Political Behavior.” American Journal of Political Science 26 (August): 446–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Haller, H. Brandon, and Norpoth, Helmut. 1994. “Let the Good Times Roll: The Economic Expectations of U.S. Voters.” American Journal of Political Science 38 (August): 625–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hetherington, Marc J. 1996. “The Media's Role in Forming Voters' National Economic Evaluations in 1992.” American Journal of Political Science 40 (4): 372–95.Google Scholar
Holbrook, Thomas, and Garand, James C.. 1996. “Homo Economus? Economic Information and Economic Voting.” Political Research Quarterly 49 (June): 351–75.Google Scholar
Kernell, Samuel. 1978. “Explaining Presidential Popularity: How Ad Hoc Theorizing, Misplaced Emphasis, and Insufficient Care in Measuring One's Variables Refuted Common Sense and Led Conventional Wisdom Down the Path of Anomalies.” American Political Science Review 72 (June): 506–22CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Key, V. O. Jr. 1966. The Responsible Electorate. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kiewiet, Roderick, and Rivers, Douglas. 1984. “A Retrospective on Retrospective Voting.” Political Behavior 6 (2): 369–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kramer, Gerald H. 1971. “Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964,” American Political Science Review 65 (March): 131–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Nadeau, Richard, and Elias, Angelo. 2008. “Economics, Party, and the Vote: Causality Issues and Panel Data.” American Journal of Political Science 52 (January): 84–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Rice, Tom W.. 1992. Forecasting Elections. Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Stegmaier, Mary. 2007. “Economic Models of the Vote.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, ed. Dalton, Russell and Klingemann, Hans-Dieter. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B. 1983. “Political Drama, Economic Conditions, and the Dynamics of Presidential Popularity.” American Journal of Political Science 27 (May): 191.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B., Erikson, Robert S., and Stimson, James A.. 1992. “Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy.” American Political Science Review 86 (September): 597–611.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Markus, Gregory B. 1988. “The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions on the Presidential Vote: A Pooled Cross-Sectional Analysis.” American Journal of Political Science 32 (February): 137–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Monroe, Kristen R. 1978. “Economic Influences on Presidential Popularity.” Public Opinion Quarterly 42 (Autumn): 360–369.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Monroe, Kristen R. 1979. “Econometric Analyses of Electoral Behavior: A Critical Review.” Political Behavior 1 (Summer): 137–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Monroe, Kristen R. 1981. “Presidential Popularity: An Almon Distributed-lag Model.” Political Methodology 8 (1): 43–69.Google Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut. 1996. “Presidents and the Prospective Voter.” Journal of Politics 58 (August): 776–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut, and Yantek, Thom. 1983. “Macroeconomic Conditions and Fluctuations of Presidential Popularity: The Question of Lagged Effects.” American Journal of Political Science 27 (November): 785–807CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ostrom, Charles W., and Simon, Dennis M.. 1985. “Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity.” American Political Science Review 79 (June): 334–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peretz, Paul. 1983. The Political Economy of Inflation in the United States. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Peters, B. Guy. 1999. American Public Policy: Promise and Performance. 5th ed. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House.Google Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J., Hansen, John Mark, and Kinder, Donald R.. 1986. “Measuring Change in Personal Economic Well-Being.” Public Opinion Quarterly 50 (Summer): 176–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shapiro, Robert Y., and Conforto, Bruce M.. 1980. “Presidential Performance, the Economy, and the Public's Evaluation of Economic Conditions.” Journal of Politics 42 (February): 49–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stigler, George. 1973. “Micropolitics and Macroeconomics: General Economic Conditions and National Elections.” American Economic Review 63 (May): 160–67.Google Scholar
Tufte, Edward R. 1975. “Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections.” American Political Science Review 69 (September): 812–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wood, B. Dan. 2007. The Politics of Economic Leadership. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar