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Simulating Past and Forecasting Future Climates*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 August 2009

Reid A. Bryson
Reid A. Bryson
Affiliation:
Senior Scientist, Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, 1225 West Dayton Street, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA.
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Extract

Climatic change is not a new phenomenon, nor is it random, as most of the variation can be explained in terms of variations in the sunlight reaching the surface of the Earth. The solar energy reaching the surface is modified by the aerosols in the atmosphere, however, and that means primarily aerosols of volcanic origin.

The climatic history of the Earth is divided up into episodes with abrupt beginnings and ends. Rapid changes from one climatic state to another are normal. The fluctuations within this century do not appear to be unusual in any respect.

To the Author's knowledge there is no evidence that past climatic changes, including those of the last decades, are related to changes in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere—except perhaps for warmer nights in the North American mid-west. It is not possible to simulate past climates using carbon dioxide content as the main variable, but it is possible to do so using calculated solar radiation as modified by volcanic aerosols. This strongly suggests that forecasts of the climatic future based on carbon dioxide increases are suspect.

Computerized models of the climate that can simulate decadal and century-long variations of climate as well as variations on the millennium scale, suggest that the climate will not warm dramatically in the next fifty years, but will, rather soon after that, begin a rather rapid change towards the next glacial climate.

Changes in our global array of cultures, sufficient to affect the global climate in a way which we perceive as beneficial, probably are not possible within centuries without massive physical conflict. There are both winners and losers when the climate changes in a non-uniform pattern, as it always does. It is a well-known fact that a global change of 0.5°C in mean temperature, such as has happened in recent years, might produce some regions of 10°C change in either direction and some regions with no change at all, and additionally an array of rainfall changes of various magnitudes. Russians would welcome warming of their climate!

The problems with attempting to modify the global climate in a particular direction are enormous and would be incredibly costly. This is compounded by our not knowing what the climate would do without intervention. Only one thing is truly clear, and it is that the present knowledge of the climatic effect of changing carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere is totally inadequate as a basis for initiating any global attempt to change the climate.

The indicated action would appear to be to engage in some high-quality climatic research based on sound science before taking global risks greater than those that might arise from the putative ‘global warming’.

Type
Main Papers
Information
Environmental Conservation , Volume 20 , Issue 4 , Winter 1993 , pp. 339 - 346
Copyright
Copyright © Foundation for Environmental Conservation 1993

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