a1 UNICAMP – IMECC, Departamento de Matemática Aplicada, Campinas, SP, Brazil
a2 SUCEN, Avenida Santo Antonio, Bairro Somenzari, Marìlia, SP, Brazil
Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. The incidence of dengue disease shows a clear dependence on seasonal variation. How does the temperature affect the incidence? We addressed this question indirectly by estimating the size of the A. aegypti population for different temperatures applying population dynamics theory. In order to achieve this objective we designed temperature-controlled experiments to assess the entomological parameters regarding the mosquito's life-cycle at different temperatures. By obtaining the mortality, transition and oviposition rates for different stages of the life-cycle of the mosquito we were able to calculate the basic offspring number Q0, which is the capacity of vector reproduction and ultimately gives the size of the vector population.
(Accepted December 24 2008)
(Online publication February 04 2009)