Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-t5pn6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T13:41:21.288Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Epidemic influenza in Greater London

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 October 2009

C. C. Spicer  and
C. J. Lawrence
C. C. Spicer
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematical Statistics and Operational Research, University of Exeter, Streatham Court, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4PU
C. J. Lawrence
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematical Statistics and Operational Research, University of Exeter, Streatham Court, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4PU
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

The Kermack & McKendrick theory of epidemics has been applied to data on deaths from influenza and influenzal pneumonia in Greater London in the years 1950–78. As a whole the theory gives a good description of the data, and the estimated values of the parameters can be plausibly related to the natural history of the disease. However, the possibility exists that the agreement is merely empirical, and field studies would be required to confirm its validity.

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Hygiene , Volume 93 , Issue 1 , August 1984 , pp. 105 - 112
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1984

References

REFERENCES

Bailey, N. T. J. (1975). Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and its Applications. London: Griffin.Google Scholar
Baroyan, O. V., Rvachev, L. A., Basilevsky, U. V., Ermakov, V. V., Frank, K. D., Rvachev, M. A. & Shashkov, V. A. (1971). Advances in Applied Probability 3, 224–226.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baroyan, O. V., Rvachev, L. A. & Ivannikov, Yu. G. (1977). Modelling and Prediction of Influenza Epidemics in the U.S.S.R. [The original Paper in Russian is inaccessible but an account of the work is given in Bailey (1975).]Google Scholar
Elvebaek, L. R., Fox, J. P., Ackerman, E., Langworth, A., Boyd, M. & Gatewood, L. (1976). An influenza simulation model for immunisation studies. American Journal of Epidemiology 103, 152–165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kermack, W. O. & McKendrick, A. G. (1927). A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 115, 700–721.Google Scholar
Logan, W. P. D. & MacKay, D. G. (1951). Development of influenza epidemics. Lancet (i), 284.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moritz, A. J., Kunz, C., Hofman, H., Liehl, E., Reeve, P. & Maassab, H. F. (1980). Studies with a cold-recombinant A/Victoria/3/75 (H3N2) virus. II. Evaluation in adult volunteers. Journal of Infectious Diseases 142, 857–860.Google Scholar
Nelder, J. A. (1961). The fitting of a generalisation of the logistic curve. Biometrics 17, 89–110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reeve, P., Gerendas, A. B., Moritz, A., Liehl, E., Kunz, C., Hofman, H. & Maassaii, H. F. (1980). Studies in man with cold-recombinant influenza virus (H1N1) live vaccines. Journal of Medical Virology 6, 75–83.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Selby, P. (Ed.) (1982). Influenza Models. Prospects for Development and Use. Lancaster: MTP.Google Scholar
Spicer, C. C. (1979). The mathematical modelling of influenza epidemics. British Medical Bulletin 35, 23–28.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Zhdanov, V. M., Soldviev, D. V. & Epshtein, F. G. (1958). Studies on Influenza (Uchemie O grippe). Publisher unknown. (Given in: Rvachev, L. A. (1968), DokladyNauk USSR, 180, 294.)Google Scholar