Journal of Hygiene

Research Article

Epidemic influenza in Greater London

C. C. Spicera1 and C. J. Lawrencea1

a1 Department of Mathematical Statistics and Operational Research, University of Exeter, Streatham Court, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4PU


The Kermack & McKendrick theory of epidemics has been applied to data on deaths from influenza and influenzal pneumonia in Greater London in the years 1950–78. As a whole the theory gives a good description of the data, and the estimated values of the parameters can be plausibly related to the natural history of the disease. However, the possibility exists that the agreement is merely empirical, and field studies would be required to confirm its validity.

(Received May 20 1983)

(Accepted March 19 1984)