a1 Ross University, Dominica
Demographic trends in today's world are dominated by large fertility differentials between nations, with ‘less developed’ nations having higher fertility than the more advanced nations. The present study investigates whether these fertility differences are related primarily to indicators of economic development, the intellectual level of the population, or political modernity in the form of liberal democracy. Results obtained with multiple regression, path models and latent variable models are compared. Both log-transformed GDP and measures of intelligence independently reduce fertility across all methods, whereas the effects of liberal democracy are weak and inconsistent. At present rates of fertility and mortality and in the absence of changes within countries, the average IQ of the young world population would decline by 1.34 points per decade and the average per capita income would decline by 0.79% per year.
(Online publication March 27 2009)