Epidemiology and Infection



EPIFIL: The development of an age-structured model for describing the transmission dynamics and control of lymphatic filariasis


R. A. NORMAN a1a2c1, M. S. CHAN a2, A. SRIVIDYA a3, S. P. PANI a3, K. D. RAMAIAH a3, P. VANAMAIL a3, E. MICHAEL a2, P. K. DAS a3 and D. A. P. BUNDY a2
a1 Department of Computing Science and Mathematics, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK
a2 Wellcome Trust Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
a3 Vector Control Research Centre, Medical Complex, Indira Nagar, Pondicherry-605 006, India

Abstract

Mathematical models of transmission dynamics of infectious diseases provide a useful tool for investigating the impact of community based control measures. Previously, we used a dynamic (constant force-of-infection) model for lymphatic filariasis to describe observed patterns of infection and disease in endemic communities. In this paper, we expand the model to examine the effects of control options against filariasis by incorporating the impact of age structure of the human community and by addressing explicitly the dynamics of parasite transmission from and to the vector population. This model is tested using data for Wuchereria bancrofti transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus in Pondicherry, South India. The results show that chemotherapy has a larger short-term impact than vector control but that the effects of vector control can last beyond the treatment period. In addition we compare rates of recrudescence for drugs with different macrofilaricidal effects.

(Accepted February 3 2000)


Correspondence:
c1 Author for correspondence.


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