Epidemiology and Infection

Research Article

The development of an age structured model for schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and control and its validation for Schistosoma mansoni

M. S. Chana1, H. L. Guyatta2, D. A. P. Bundya1, M. Bootha1, A. J. C. Fulforda3 and G. F. Medleya4

a1 Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK

a2 Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Swiss Tropical Institute, Socinstrasse 57, CH4002, Basel, Switzerland

a3 Division of Microbiology and Parasitology, Department of Pathology, Cambridge University, Tennis Court Road, Cambridge CB2 1QP, UK

a4 Ecosystems Analysis and Management Group, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK

Summary

Mathematical models are potentially useful tools to aid in the design of control programmes for parasitic diseases. In this paper, a fully age structured epidemiological model of human schistosomiasis is developed and parameterized, and used to predict trends in infection prevalence, intensity and prevalence of heavy infections over age and time during several rounds of mass and age targeted treatment. The model is validated against data from a Schistosoma mansoni control programme in Kenya.

(Accepted May 24 1995)

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