Journal of Hygiene

Research Article

Studies on the 1967–68 foot and mouth disease epidemic: incubation period and herd serial interval

M. E. Hugh-Jonesa1 and R. R. Tinlinea2

a1 Pathology and Epidemiology Department, Central Veterinary Laboratory, New Haw, Weybridge, Surrey

a2 Department of Geography, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario

Abstract

The incubation period during this epidemic was studied using both a spectral analysis-cum-filtering method and analysis of case histories. Using spectral analysis, the modal herd serial interval was estimated to be 8–10 days based on the record of the daily number of outbreaks and an adjusted cattle series. The case histories tended to confirm these estimates but indicated that the serial interval varied considerably between species. The filtering method revealed that the herd serial interval apparently changed during the epidemic. For the first 4 weeks the interval was 8 days, while in the latter stages it was about 2 weeks.

(Received June 02 1975)

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