a1 West Los Angeles Veterans Affairs Medical Center and The RAND Corporation
a2 Mount Sinai Medical Center
a3 The RAND Corporation
We assessed the predictive validity of an expert panel's ratings of the appropriateness of carotid endarterectomy by comparing ratings to the results of subsequent randomized clinical trials. We found the trials confirmed the ratings for 44 indications (covering almost 30% of operations performed in 1981) and refuted the ratings for none.